Thread by @Mylovanov

It is ridiculous how Ukraine ignores high-priority targets and attacks low priority targets in Russia, says an observer criticizing Ukrainian attack on Russian oil refinery in Ryazan

Let’s take this argument seriously and think about what Ru targets should Ukraine hit first 1/

But first let’s look at what Ukraine is hitting now.

The recent deep strikes have focused on oil refineries. They have not focused on crude oil production, electricity grid, command centers, or weapon storage facilities. 2/

There are of course strikes on command centers and weapons storage facilities closer to the front lines. One recent example is an ATACAMS attack on Russian training center in Luhansk region 3/

I have also heard rumors that the U.S. doesn’t allow Ukraine to use ATACAMS and other long range weapons on the territory of Russia, even if this is 40 km from Kharkiv where Russians currently accumulate forces for an offensive 4/

So, Ukraine can be limited in its ability to strike on Russian territory.

Nonetheless, Ukraine continuously hits targets deep in Russia with Ukrainian produced drones. 5/

https://twitter.com/mylovanov/status/1781639121359831135

It is not true that Ukraine focuses only on oil refineries, but they constitute the majority of targets that are publicly known. 6/

There is of course a chance that Ukraine attacks defense production and weapons storage targets, but this information doesn’t get public.

Yes, in today’s world with cameras and phones everywhere, this is possibly but highly unlikely. 7/

The Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries have been successful and media and politicians noticed them.

Drone attacks have knocked out around 14% of Russia's primary oil refining capacity as of end-March.

8/

reuters.com/business/energ…

Russia is usually a net fuel exporter but the refinery disruptions have forced it to import.

It has imposed a 6-month gasoline export ban starting March 1 to prevent acute fuel shortages domestically 9/

Russia has also asked Kazakhstan to set up an emergency reserve of 100,000 metric tons of gasoline in case of shortages. 10/

It has also increased gasoline imports from Belarus. The cause is “unscheduled repairs” at Russian refineries following drone attacks. In the first half of March, imports reached nearly 3,000 metric tons, up from 590 tons in February and none in January /

reuters.com/business/energ…

Politico writes it is “both a political and military problem for Moscow. As well as being essential for Russia's war effort, cheap fuel is a key part of President Vladimir Putin's offer to the public, an antidote to lagging wages and a weak ruble” 12/ politico.eu/article/vladim…

Politico: Diesel prices for Russian consumers have skyrocketed, rising almost 10 percent in the past week alone, according to the government’s figures. Petrol costs have also hit a six-month high, up more than 20 percent from the start of the year 13/

Politico: “Ukraine’s ‘physical sanctions’ can accelerate the actual ones,” Maria Shagina said “Kyiv has found Moscow’s technological vulnerability and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries speed up the impact of Western sanctions” 14/

So, this Ukrainian strategy is working.

But what about other targets? The criticism I listed above states that Ukraine is better off hitting electricity grid, command centers, or munition warehouses 15/

Target Option 1. Electricity transmission or generating facilities.

The problem is that it is very difficult to create serious damage with the resources Ukraine has.

The case in point is the three winter Russian campaign to black out Ukraine 16/

In the beginning, it looked easy for Russia. Let’s hit some power plants and transformators in Ukraine said Russia.

But several thousand ballistic and cruise missiles later, Ukraine electricity grid stands. 17/

But why? Because the Soviet Union has built in a lot of spare capacity, redundancy and robustness. Yes, Ukraine needs air defense and have built protective infrastructure around the critical infrastructure, but Russia can do that too 18/

In addition, as we all have learned, drones can do limited damage to power plants and grids, we need missiles. But Ukraine doesn’t have them!

So what’s then Ukraine to do? It found a vulnerability where a small drone can do major damage - oil refineries. 19/

Interestingly, Russia can’t reciprocate because Ukraine doesn’t have oil refineries (any more). 20/

A similar argument applies to weapon depots. They are well protected and a drone is unlikely to do much damage. Ukraine has learned to store its monitor in such a way that Russians cannot easily destroy it, even with missiles. Russians are not stupid and they are doing the same /

You also need up to date intelligence about which depot to hit and where exactly as weapons are moved around. That’s not the case with oil refineries. 21/

Then, there is logistics. Ukraine can hit logistical infrastructure, terminals, railroad etc. but it’s hard. Again, Russia has tried to do it in Ukraine with very limited success. 22/

All these ideas about which targets to hit have been already tried in this war. What’s new in the Ukrainian strategy is that they have found a vulnerability : oil refineries. They are immobile, you can’t hide them, they are easily flammable, and there are large areas you can hit/

They are also very difficult and costly to rebuild.

The next step is for the Russia to figure out how to protect them and for Ukraine to learn how to bypass that protection. We will see what happens. X