Emmanuel Profile picture
May 2 โ€ข 6 tweets โ€ข 3 min read โ€ข Read on X
๐™’๐™ƒ๐™€๐™‰ ๐™’๐™„๐™‡๐™‡ ๐™’๐™€ ๐™๐™„๐™‰๐˜ผ๐™‡๐™‡๐™” ๐™€๐™‰๐˜ฟ ๐™๐˜ผ๐™‡๐™Ž๐™€ ๐˜ฟ๐™„๐˜พ๐™ƒ๐™Š๐™๐™Š๐™ˆ๐™„๐™€๐™Ž?

โ–ถ๏ธ Is the TRANSMISSION of the virus AIRBORNE or by DROPLETS ?
BOTH, even, if it is essentially airborne, due to the constraints of droplet transmission.
โ–ถ๏ธ Is there a "relative" IMMUNITY ... Image
2) ... post-infection or post-vaccination ?
BOTH, even if reinfections must absolutely be avoided, and if the concept of hybrid immunity is dead, since there are almost no more vaccines administered

โ–ถ๏ธ Is a WAVE caused by a VARIANT or by WANING IMMUNITY?
BOTH plus ... Image
3) ...population behavior, environmental factors, population density, transportation, ...
A wave is multifactorial.
โ–ถ๏ธ Is there 10% or more than 40% long COVID?
BOTH, because it depends, on whether the definition, refers to 1 or more symptoms, 3 months after the infection Image
4) โ–ถ๏ธ Is Avian Influenza H5N1 transmissible to MAMMALS or HUMANS?
BOTH, and actually only by birds, because mammal-human or human-human transmission has still not been established

โ–ถ๏ธ Is the fatality rate of H5N1 for humans <10% or close to 50%?
BOTH, as it depends ... Image
5) ...on the baseline chosen, hospitalized or symptomatic.
If we take into account asymptomatic people we could have rates close to human influenza.

The science, especially of viruses, is not a black or white world ...

(H5N1 before 2019 and after) Image
6) ... but requires a lot of nuances due to its complexity. There is no room for simplistic dichotomies.

Thanks for reading ๐Ÿ™ Image

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More from @ejustin46

May 4
๐—›5๐—ก1 ๐—Ÿ๐—”๐—ฆ๐—ง ๐—จ๐—ฃ๐——๐—”๐—ง๐—˜ !
(๐Ÿงต ๐˜—๐˜ˆ๐˜™๐˜› 3 : ๐˜›๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜™๐˜๐˜š๐˜’๐˜š)

"H5N1 SCENARIO-based Human Health Risk Assessment for the United States as of [5/1/2024]" Image
2) The risk assessment report considers 5 possible SCENARIOS for how the H5N1 outbreak in cattle could evolve and the corresponding risks to human health.
Currently the outbreak is judged to be between SCENARIOS 2 and 3, with widespread cases in cattle and some spread to ... Image
3) ...other animals like cats, but no human-to-human transmission reported so far.
SCENARIO 1 assumes minimal spread in animals and low risk to all human populations.

SCENARIO 2 involves widespread cattle spread and some cow-to-human transmission ... Image
Read 7 tweets
May 4
๐—›5๐—ก1 ๐—Ÿ๐—”๐—ฆ๐—ง ๐—จ๐—ฃ๐——๐—”๐—ง๐—˜ !
(๐Ÿงต ๐˜—๐˜ˆ๐˜™๐˜› 2)
"๐˜—๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ฎ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜บ ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฑ๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ต ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ ๐˜จ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฎ๐˜ช๐˜ค ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฑ๐˜ช๐˜ฅ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฎ๐˜ช๐˜ฐ๐˜ญ๐˜ฐ๐˜จ๐˜บ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ง ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ 2024 ๐˜5๐˜•1 ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ง๐˜ญ๐˜ถ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ๐˜ป๐˜ข ๐˜ˆ ๐˜ท๐˜ช๐˜ณ๐˜ถ๐˜ด ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ต๐˜ฃ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ฌ ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ ๐˜œ.๐˜š. ๐˜ค๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ต๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ (๐˜ฑ๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ต 2)"
virological.org/t/preliminary-โ€ฆ
Image
2) The original cattle H5N1 virus's hemagglutinin (HA) protein was not adapted to bind to human-like receptors. The closest-related sequences to the cattle H5N1 HA came from wild birds, indicating no pre-adaptation to mammalian receptors. Image
3) Mutations in HA and the polymerase have been observed in small clades from cattle and cats, but their significance is unclear. Without changes in HA affecting receptor binding, the risk of human transmission is low.
H5N1 has transmitted from cattle to wild birds, poultry ...
Read 7 tweets
May 4
๐—›5๐—ก1 ๐—Ÿ๐—”๐—ฆ๐—ง ๐—จ๐—ฃ๐——๐—”๐—ง๐—˜ !
(๐Ÿงต ๐˜—๐˜ˆ๐˜™๐˜› 1)
"๐˜—๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ฎ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜บ ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฑ๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ต ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ ๐˜จ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฎ๐˜ช๐˜ค ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฑ๐˜ช๐˜ฅ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฎ๐˜ช๐˜ฐ๐˜ญ๐˜ฐ๐˜จ๐˜บ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ง ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ 2024 ๐˜5๐˜•1 ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ง๐˜ญ๐˜ถ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ๐˜ป๐˜ข ๐˜ˆ ๐˜ท๐˜ช๐˜ณ๐˜ถ๐˜ด ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ต๐˜ฃ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ฌ ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ ๐˜œ.๐˜š. ๐˜ค๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ต๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ (๐˜ฑ๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ต 1)" Image
2) H/t @MichaelWorobey @PeacockFlu and colleagues



BACKGROUND :
Reassortment of the virus with local avian strains has generated diverse genotypes. virological.org/t/preliminary-โ€ฆ
Image
3) The virus has a high propensity to infect mammals, including domestic cats, foxes, mink, and pinnipeds. Mammalian infections lead to severe disease and quick adaptation. Bird-to-mammal transmission is uncertain. Image
Read 10 tweets
May 4
๐—”๐˜๐—บ๐—ผ๐˜€๐—ฝ๐—ต๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ ๐—ฝ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐˜‚๐—น๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ ๐—บ๐—ฎ๐˜๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐—ฎ๐—ป๐—ฑ ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐˜€๐—ฝ๐—ถ๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜† ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐˜€๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐˜€๐—ฒ๐˜€ ๐—ฑ๐˜‚๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—–๐—ข๐—ฉ๐—œ๐——-19 ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐—ž๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ

nature.com/articles/s4159โ€ฆ
Image
2) The study analyzed the relationship between particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) levels and hospital admissions for respiratory and non-respiratory diseases in major cities in South Korea from 2016-2020. Image
3) It compared the relationships before the COVID-19 pandemic (2016-2019) to during the pandemic in 2020, when non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) like social distancing and mask-wearing were implemented. Image
Read 8 tweets
May 4
๐—” ๐˜€๐—ต๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜ ๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฝ ๐˜„๐—ถ๐˜๐—ต ๐—ฆ๐—”๐—ฅ๐—ฆ-๐—–๐—ผ๐—ฉ-2 ๐—ผ๐—ป ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐˜‚๐—ฝ๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ธ ๐—ผ๐—ณ ๐—ฎ ๐—ฝ๐—ฎ๐˜€๐˜€๐—ฒ๐—ป๐—ด๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐˜€๐—ต๐—ถ๐—ฝ !

๐˜ˆ ๐˜ท๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ๐˜บ ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ต๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜จ ๐˜ด๐˜ต๐˜ถ๐˜ฅ๐˜บ ๐˜ข๐˜ฃ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ต ๐˜ฅ๐˜ณ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฑ๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ๐˜ต๐˜ด ๐Ÿ‘ @0bj3ctivity ๐Ÿ˜‚
cell.com/heliyon/fullteโ€ฆ

Image
Image
2) The study developed a numerical model to simulate the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 virus through droplets expelled during coughing and sneezing on the upper deck of a passenger ship. Image
3) Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) was used to model the airflow and determine the contamination zone from respiratory droplets. Parameters like voyage duration, passenger numbers, social distancing, mask wearing were investigated. Image
Read 7 tweets
May 4
๐—™๐—ฎ๐—ฐ๐˜๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜€ ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ณ๐—น๐˜‚๐—ฒ๐—ป๐—ฐ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—น๐—ผ๐—ป๐—ด-๐˜๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—บ ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜† ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐—ฐ๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐—น๐—น๐˜† ๐—ถ๐—น๐—น ๐—–๐—ข๐—ฉ๐—œ๐——-19 ๐˜€๐˜‚๐—ฟ๐˜ƒ๐—ถ๐˜ƒ๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜€: ๐—” ๐—ฝ๐—ฟ๐—ผ๐˜€๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐˜๐—ถ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ ๐—บ๐˜‚๐—น๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ฒ ๐—ฐ๐—ผ๐—ต๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜ ๐˜€๐˜๐˜‚๐—ฑ๐˜†

medrxiv.org/content/10.110โ€ฆ
Image
2) This was a prospective multicenter cohort study that examined long-term outcomes up to 12 months in 303 survivors of critical COVID-19 illness who were treated in ICUs in Sweden between May 2020-May 2021. Image
3) At the 3-month follow-up, 264 survivors participated and completed assessments of functional outcome and health-related quality of life (HRQoL). At 12 months, 217 survivors participated. Image
Read 6 tweets

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