1/ THREAD - Over the past several months, I was working on a public report on the latest Russian #AI developments - it is now published with @CNASdc. Do check it out! Below are main points and takeaways. cnas.org/publications/r…
2/ The report is meant as a summary of the latest developments through March 2024, and should serve as a reference document for anyone interested in major Russian thoughts and deliberations on #AI in the military domain. The data is based on public sources and major Russian...
3/ ...announcements and debates on what artificial intelligence should mean for the country's defense, security, military and civilian establishments. We caveat such statements as coming from official sources and should be treated as such.
4/ The report's backdrop is Russia's disastrous Ukraine invasion, which influences how the Russian military considers AI development and use, even if actual use cases are very far and few in between (if at all). Nonetheless, Russia has demonstrated that it can...
5/ ...conduct WW1-style, casualty-intensive ground warfare backed by modern technologies like newest aerial drones. The report lays out how the Russian MOD thinks about AI, where its AI development/use priorities are, and how Russia's civilian AI ecosystem can assist that effort.
6/ The report also includes a listing of possible international partnerships on AI that the Russian government is currently pursuing. The text was meant as a summary document and does not delve into the technical side of Russia's AI R&D.
7/ Given the ongoing technology race that Russia sees itself in vs. US, China, Ukraine and other countries, the Russian MOD does allocate resources to #AI R&D, even if results cannot be seen right away. Check out the text and let me know your thoughts.
8/ Finally, this was a team effort with @CNASdc and @AKendallTaylor - and big thanks for @jeffaedmonds @russmil @RitaKonaev Sam Bresnik Edward Geist James Johnson and many others who helped make this report happen.
@CNASdc @AKendallTaylor @jeffaedmonds @russmil @RitaKonaev 9/ Also big thanks to @paul_scharre for his assistance to this project.
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1/ THREAD: Ukraine's Mariia Berlinska, one of its top volunteers and the nation's "Mother of Drones", on why Ukraine did not predict and prepare for the ongoing "technological war." Translated points below: t.me/VictoryDrones2…
2/ "I will now say something for which hundreds of influential and high-status people in our country may be offended. But I will still say it. Not in order to humiliate someone, but so that we as a society learn this terrible lesson. Do you know what unites all the leaders...?"
3/ "...in our country for all the years of independence? All of them, without division into parties and views, fortunes, positions. Honest and corrupt, intelligent and/or idiots? No one predicted a technological war. No one invested..."
1/ QUICK TAKE - The Russian military is systematizing the experience of using UAVs in combat. DefMin Belousov recently visited "Rubicon" - MOD's first Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies formed in August 2024 in one of the functioning UAV combat units.
2/ Belousov was given a report on the work of the Center's detachments in combat, the latest UAVs and UGVs were shown, along with the work of operators and the analytical department that summarize information on the use of unmanned forces and assets.
3/ "Belousov held a meeting on the development of unmanned technologies and the further development of the Rubicon Center. Instructions were given to form and staff five more UAV detachments - their experience will form the basis of a new program for training tactical UAV specialists." t.me/dronesrussia/2…
1/ QUICK TAKE on the Russian complaint that the forces do not have enough cheap tactical strike means: "There is a catastrophic lack of cheap high-precision means of destruction at a depth of up to 30 kilometers in our tactical contour..."
2/ "In our tactical contour of medium observation UAVs (Zala, Orlan, etc.) and strike UAVs like Kub and Lancet. Lancets are expensive and there are few of them, so the authorities give the go-ahead to destroy only "fat" targets. I will keep quiet about Kub..."
3/ "... and other (similar) UAVs, I have never seen them. Attempts to plug this niche with FPVs are still unproductive due to the need to install signal repeaters and the small combat load carried by them over long distances."
1/3 Ukraine's Robert "Magyar" Brovdi, talking with The Economist: During the next 6-8 months, humans will no longer be needed to control drones in Ukraine - the war will become truly unmanned. The evolution of such technologies will... unian.ua/weapons/bezpil…
2/3 "...lead to the fact that artificial intelligence will be the main tool of warfare, since already 50% of all "strike activity" is formed by drones. Hundreds of AI systems are currently being developed at the same time, and they are being tested in experimental modes."
3/3 "In six months, pilots will no longer be needed. The drone itself, depending on its development, will decide what to attack, how to distinguish "Zhiguli" from a tank and definitely not confuse a Ukrainian with an enemy." Starts at 32:46
1/ QUICK TAKE on the possible evolution of FPV/quadcopter drones from a Russian drone commentator - key point below: "First, a combat quadcopter will be comparatively large: it is key to fly it further and stay above the target longer."
2/ "Accordingly, the "gray zone" will grow, and mortar crews and enemy logistics will often be in the area of active drone use. Second, practice has shown that a drone should work "out of the box": fixing it right there in the trenches is extremely difficult..."
3/ "...and this means that its use should be as simple as possible. Most likely, over time, attack UAVs (primarily FPVs) will occupy an intermediate position between relatively specialized and few-numbered ATGMs and more classic artillery."