1/ THREAD - Over the past several months, I was working on a public report on the latest Russian #AI developments - it is now published with @CNASdc. Do check it out! Below are main points and takeaways. cnas.org/publications/r…
2/ The report is meant as a summary of the latest developments through March 2024, and should serve as a reference document for anyone interested in major Russian thoughts and deliberations on #AI in the military domain. The data is based on public sources and major Russian...
3/ ...announcements and debates on what artificial intelligence should mean for the country's defense, security, military and civilian establishments. We caveat such statements as coming from official sources and should be treated as such.
4/ The report's backdrop is Russia's disastrous Ukraine invasion, which influences how the Russian military considers AI development and use, even if actual use cases are very far and few in between (if at all). Nonetheless, Russia has demonstrated that it can...
5/ ...conduct WW1-style, casualty-intensive ground warfare backed by modern technologies like newest aerial drones. The report lays out how the Russian MOD thinks about AI, where its AI development/use priorities are, and how Russia's civilian AI ecosystem can assist that effort.
6/ The report also includes a listing of possible international partnerships on AI that the Russian government is currently pursuing. The text was meant as a summary document and does not delve into the technical side of Russia's AI R&D.
7/ Given the ongoing technology race that Russia sees itself in vs. US, China, Ukraine and other countries, the Russian MOD does allocate resources to #AI R&D, even if results cannot be seen right away. Check out the text and let me know your thoughts.
8/ Finally, this was a team effort with @CNASdc and @AKendallTaylor - and big thanks for @jeffaedmonds @russmil @RitaKonaev Sam Bresnik Edward Geist James Johnson and many others who helped make this report happen.
@CNASdc @AKendallTaylor @jeffaedmonds @russmil @RitaKonaev 9/ Also big thanks to @paul_scharre for his assistance to this project.
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1/ QUICK THREAD: Russian concerns about being left behind in the military AI race: "Against the backdrop of China's, US' and Israel's leadership in #AI, #Russia faces a number of challenges that limit its capabilities in this technology race." t.me/mil_hub/92494
2/ "Firstly, Russia lacks large companies capable of competing with Anduril or Palantir. Developments are carried out mainly at military research institutes, but access to advanced technologies, such as powerful AI algorithms and modern computing power, is limited."
3/ "Second, funding remains significantly lower than that of world leaders. For example, in 2023, the United States allocated about $4 billion for military AI technologies, while Russian investments remain an order of magnitude lower."
1/ QUICK THREAD: Russian mil bloggers on a Ukrainian USV destroying a Rus helicopter in the Black Sea (below), trying to come up with proposals on dealing with such threats: "...the issue of using anti-aircraft missile launchers (on USVs) was only a matter of time."
2/ "This is a consequence of the proven effectiveness of Rus forces intercepting USVs with helicopters. While they were just kamikaze USVs, (our tactic) was extremely effective and allowed us to eliminate the USVs (let's keep quiet about why they (Rus MOD) didn't start doing this back in 2022, because the words that come to mind are mostly obscene)."
3/ "But the helicopter interception of USVs over the Black Sea provided us with six months of quiet. But sooner or later we had to be ready for the enemy's next move, they did not particularly hide their methods of fighting helicopters. And therefore, it is necessary..."
1/ THREAD on some of the key drone and unmanned systems developments in Ukraine war for 2024 - I quoted my end-of-year 2023 thread (below), which in turn quotes my end-of-year 2022 thread for comparison. Main points below:
2/ First, the sheer numbers of drones delivered by both sides in this war this year - at least 1.3 million Ukrainian and around 1.4 million Russian UAVs. Such numbers are unprecedented for modern conflicts and have greatly impacted tactical picture at the front.
3/ Second, FPV-type drones flew at longer ranges than in previous years - up to 20km - hitting key assets well behind the line of contact.
1/ QUICK TAKE: Over the past two years, I have highlighted the work by one of Russia's key volunteers - Aleksey Chadaev, an organizer behind "Dronnitsa" meet up and the facilitator of "Vandal Novgorodsky" fiber-optic drone development (see quoted thread). He recently spoke...
2/ ...with Russian media about his fiber-optic drone and the "Ushkyinik" effort that made it happen. His main points below: "Ushkyinik is a new organization that currently has more than 40 resident companies - universities, large defense enterprises, laboratories, and "garage teams."
3/ "We are also a kind of design bureau - in general, Ushkuynik acts as an integrator, assembling a project from all these elements. For example, one of the areas is a provider of forms of state support - if a team wants to receive a grant, we help write it."
1/ QUICK TAKE on the Russian mil bloggers' thoughts on drone swarms in 2025, translated from a TG channel: "The main combat UAV technology in 2025 will be swarm systems. In September 2023, I published a forecast of which combat UAV types would be most in demand in 2024."
2/ "In general, everything came true. Moreover, I would like to especially note the emergence of high-volume production of FPVs, the expansion of tiltrotor aircraft, the emergence of interceptor drones, and the beginning of work on the civil certification of heavy drones."
3/ "What I was wrong about was the timing of the introduction of (actual) swarm technologies in UAVs, that is, the spread of group use of drones. There are almost none of them at the front or in civil applications yet."
1/ Russia's Project Archangel just published the following EW manual for volunteers and soldiers. I quickly ran it through machine translation - some interesting details in the images below. t.me/projectArchang…