1/ THREAD - Over the past several months, I was working on a public report on the latest Russian #AI developments - it is now published with @CNASdc. Do check it out! Below are main points and takeaways. cnas.org/publications/r…
2/ The report is meant as a summary of the latest developments through March 2024, and should serve as a reference document for anyone interested in major Russian thoughts and deliberations on #AI in the military domain. The data is based on public sources and major Russian...
3/ ...announcements and debates on what artificial intelligence should mean for the country's defense, security, military and civilian establishments. We caveat such statements as coming from official sources and should be treated as such.
4/ The report's backdrop is Russia's disastrous Ukraine invasion, which influences how the Russian military considers AI development and use, even if actual use cases are very far and few in between (if at all). Nonetheless, Russia has demonstrated that it can...
5/ ...conduct WW1-style, casualty-intensive ground warfare backed by modern technologies like newest aerial drones. The report lays out how the Russian MOD thinks about AI, where its AI development/use priorities are, and how Russia's civilian AI ecosystem can assist that effort.
6/ The report also includes a listing of possible international partnerships on AI that the Russian government is currently pursuing. The text was meant as a summary document and does not delve into the technical side of Russia's AI R&D.
7/ Given the ongoing technology race that Russia sees itself in vs. US, China, Ukraine and other countries, the Russian MOD does allocate resources to #AI R&D, even if results cannot be seen right away. Check out the text and let me know your thoughts.
8/ Finally, this was a team effort with @CNASdc and @AKendallTaylor - and big thanks for @jeffaedmonds @russmil @RitaKonaev Sam Bresnik Edward Geist James Johnson and many others who helped make this report happen.
@CNASdc @AKendallTaylor @jeffaedmonds @russmil @RitaKonaev 9/ Also big thanks to @paul_scharre for his assistance to this project.
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1/ THREAD on the new "digital warfare" as seen in Ukraine, described Russia's Gen(ret) Yuri Baluyevsky, former Chief of the General Staff in 2004-2008, and Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (CAST). Main points below: globalaffairs.ru/articles/czifr…
2/ "There's every reason to believe that the "digital warfare" process will continue to expand and deepen, as the potential for escalating "drone warfare" exceeds the ability to effectively counter this type of weaponry."
3/ "The miniaturization and cost reduction of componentry, along with the development of networked solutions (specifically networked ones; the trendy artificial intelligence will likely remain a secondary factor for a long time to come) are leading to combat operations..."
Ukraine's @Textyorgua_Eng on the gray zone in the war - an area that stretches 25-30 km, and as much as 40km, "a chaotic kill zone riddled with trenches, dugouts, mines and rubble, constantly monitored and hit by drones, with both sides using a wide range of weapons." texty.org.ua/projects/11592…
The rotation in this gray zone is a difficult and dangerous: "Pickup trucks take the infantry 1–7 km to the trenches/dugouts. Then the guys walk the rest of the way, carrying 20–40 kg of stuff: ammo, gear, water, food, and tactical electronic warfare equipment."
"Sometimes UGVs are used for logistics and evac on the front lines. This type of technology is still in its infancy, and there are many problems with UGVs. But often they are the last straw that people grab onto when they need to make an important delivery or pick up a wounded soldier."
1/ QUICK TAKE by a Rus mil blogger on dispelling the myths that frontline drone operator job is "prestigious" and "safe" - main points translated as follows: "Money? 210,000 rubles per month? Yes, you get paid. But then the lion's share goes (to purchasing) own equipment." t.me/russoturisto_n…
2/ "(You buy) a new drone camera. Batteries. Chargers. Communications. And also repairs. You buy a new drone to replace the one that hasn't returned. Wires, connectors, fasteners. In fact, you're always "in the red." Just staying alive, for now."
3/ "Prestige? It's there. As long as you're accurate (with drone strikes). As long as you're alive. As long as the antenna is intact, the connection is stable, and your hands aren't shaking after 14 hours of "observing."
1/ QUICK TAKE on the lagging Russian military education that is behind the current combat trends in Ukraine, from a Rus military commentator: "I attended a lecture at one of the military training centers in the Samara region, and excuse my French..." t.me/voickokipchaka…
2/ "...dear teachers of this center, but I have never heard so much nonsense from anyone. Of course, out of respect for their shoulder straps, I tried to smooth things over, but it got to the point where the lecturer said that 75% of all tactical targets were hit by "artillery".
3/ "Let me remind you, for those who have forgotten: this is the fourth year of the special military operation (Russian name for its invasion of Ukraine), and this war is unlike any other. Now, for your information, 70% of the targets are hit by drones."
1/ Rus state media reports that the Sukhoi Design Bureau (that built S-70 Okhotnik UCAV) is "actively developing eight distinct UAV types. Next step in tactical aviation is transitioning from viewing it as a mere collection of individual high-tech aircraft to developing integrated aviation systems." tass.com/defense/2015511
2/ Okhotnik took years to go through testing and evaluation, and was shot down by Russia's own forces in 2024 when it went out of control over Ukraine. It was not seen in Ukraine combat, is expensive and in very few numbers, and would likely not survive Ukrainian air defenses.
3/ More form Sukhoi: "...countering multi-layered air defense systems with manned aircraft alone has become prohibitively expensive. Therefore, the focus is shifting toward a network of functional complexes, each designed to address specific targets and tasks."
1/ THREAD: On September 6-7, 2025, the fourth annual "DRONNITSA" meet-up took place in Russia's Novgorod region, organized by KCPN (Coordination Center for Assistance to Novorossiya) and Ushkuynik Enterprise (that builds KVN fiber-optic drones), with assistance from Novgorod region government. t.me/dronnitsa/554
2/ This year, the event theme was "learning from mistakes" - what the larger Russian volunteer and start up community learned after years of assisting the Rus military and what gaps still remain. See this link for previous DRONNITSA threads.
3/ A key figure in organizing this event is Aleksei Chadaev, who head "Ushkyunik" Enterprise and is one of the key figures in the Russian tech volunteer space (below). His co-organizer is Aleksandr Lyubimov who is involved with KCPN.