Tymofiy Mylovanov Profile picture
May 4 7 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Recently, there’ve been reports of the U.S. easing Russian sanctions

Is this a carrot& stick game after the passing the aid? Is this signaling to Russia that the U.S. is willing to “de escalate” if… Or is this a sign of some covert negotiations with Russia?

Specifically, 1/ Image
The reports said that U.S. now allows transactions related to energy with the Russian banks.

The problem is that it is quite misleading.

It is true that the sanctions have been eased relative to the start of the invasion. 2/
But the decision is not new and happened many months ago

What is immediately new is that easing of the sanctions s works through an exemption. And this exemption was set to expire last week. The U.S. renewed it until November. 3/
So, yes, the sanctions technically are eased because they were supposed to come into effect. But the U.S. keeps doing it and now it has become a technicality.

What is really the exemption? The U.S. allows transactions related to energy. 4/
Energy is broadly understood as “extraction, production, refinement, liquefaction, gasification, regasification, conversion, enrichment, fabrication, transport, or purchase of petroleum, including crude oil” but even 5/
“coal, wood, or agricultural products used to manufacture biofuels, or uranium in any form, as well as the development, production, generation, transmission, or exchange of power, through any means, including nuclear, thermal, and renewable energy sources 4/
The banks that are de-sanctioned are:

The Central Bank of Russia

Vnesheconombank

Otkritie

Sovcombank Open Joint Stock Company

Sberbank of Russia;

VTB Bank

Alfa-Bank

Rosbank

Bank Zenit

Bank Saint-Petersburg 5X

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More from @Mylovanov

May 5
There are three popular arguments behind “de-escalation” doctrine with Russia. All three are wrong

1. Fear of nukes and World War 3

2. The person after Putin could be worse than Putin

3. The entire region might become destabilized. 1/
But first let’s admit the obvious: The US deescalation doctrine doesn’t work.

Think about it! There hasn’t been a single instance of Russia deescalating in response to any action by Ukraine or the West. 2/
The Black Sea gain deal, partial easing of sanctions on energy and agriculture, the U.S. restrictions on Ukraine to strike deep in Russia, delays in supply Ukraine with weapons that it asked for - none of it resulted in deescalation by Russia 5/
Read 30 tweets
May 3
Fake News on X. How it works.

Mario Nawfal posted today that Ukraine forces pregnant women to serve in the military while strippers are exempt

There were easy signs that the accusation is false, yet the post gained almost 200K until it was removed.

What were the signs? 1/ Image
First, women are not required to serve in Ukraine military. They can volunteer, but they are definitely not forced. This is generally know or can be inferred. It is men who are restricted from leaving Ukraine, but not women

Anyone who talks to Ukrainian refugees knows this 2/ Image
The post was quickly rebutted, Mario removed it and apologized. This is ethical and respectful of him. Mistakes happen. It is the model how to react to them.

Yet, the damage was done. We know from social media research that fake news travel 10-20 times faster than truth. 3/ Image
Read 9 tweets
May 3
A top Ukraine general in the Economist:

Ukraine is on the brink. A fresh Russian push’ll test Ukraine severely

It is a matter of time until Chasiv Yar falls; Dark days ahead for Kharkiv

This war will end with negotiations; they won’t happen until late 2025 or 2026 1/ Image
The general - Major-General Vadym Skibitsky - is a deputy head of Ukraine's military intelligence agency.

His boss Budanov has achieved an almost legendary status in Ukraine and abroad. 2/ Image
Skibitskiy says Russia will first push to get the rest of Donetsk and Luhansk. The immediate threat is Chasiv Yar. It is the key for Russia to access the last remaining large cities in the region, which are just 30-40 km away. 2/ Image
Read 19 tweets
May 2
It is ridiculous how Ukraine ignores high-priority targets and attacks low priority targets in Russia, says an observer criticizing Ukrainian attack on Russian oil refinery in Ryazan

Let’s take this argument seriously and think about what Ru targets should Ukraine hit first 1/ Image
But first let’s look at what Ukraine is hitting now.

The recent deep strikes have focused on oil refineries. They have not focused on crude oil production, electricity grid, command centers, or weapon storage facilities. 2/ Image
There are of course strikes on command centers and weapons storage facilities closer to the front lines. One recent example is an ATACAMS attack on Russian training center in Luhansk region 3/

Read 25 tweets
May 2
The situation on the frontline has worsened: Ukraine’s commander-in-chief Syrsky

How critical is the situation? Has the U.S. aid package been passed too late?

Yes and no. Russia will force an offensive in the coming weeks, but if Ukraine holds, things will get better 1/ Image
For a good overview, look at this FT article about Chasiv Yar

The town is critical for the Ukrainian defense in the region because it remains the last natural barrier to the rest of Donbas

2/

ft.com/content/01cbf4…
25,000 Russian troops have been deployed near the town in recent weeks, according to Ukraine military

3/ Image
Read 11 tweets
Apr 30
A deeply touching story of love in war and occupation

Anna and Volodymyr are an elderly married couple. Anna is blind, Volodymyr can hardly walk

They travelled 1000s of miles from occupied Ukraine through Russia to cross back to free Ukraine 1/ Image
They were in an occupied village in Kherson village and went around Ukraine through Russia to get back into Ukraine where the crossing was safer and Red Cross operated at the Russian - Ukrainian border 2/ Image
Yes, if you are wondering, Red Cross can facilitate border crossings in the north east of Ukraine. There is war there too, with attacks, incursions, missiles, but it is much less intense (so to speak) 3/ Image
Read 9 tweets

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