Recently, there’ve been reports of the U.S. easing Russian sanctions
Is this a carrot& stick game after the passing the aid? Is this signaling to Russia that the U.S. is willing to “de escalate” if… Or is this a sign of some covert negotiations with Russia?
Specifically, 1/
The reports said that U.S. now allows transactions related to energy with the Russian banks.
The problem is that it is quite misleading.
It is true that the sanctions have been eased relative to the start of the invasion. 2/
But the decision is not new and happened many months ago
What is immediately new is that easing of the sanctions s works through an exemption. And this exemption was set to expire last week. The U.S. renewed it until November. 3/
So, yes, the sanctions technically are eased because they were supposed to come into effect. But the U.S. keeps doing it and now it has become a technicality.
What is really the exemption? The U.S. allows transactions related to energy. 4/
Energy is broadly understood as “extraction, production, refinement, liquefaction, gasification, regasification, conversion, enrichment, fabrication, transport, or purchase of petroleum, including crude oil” but even 5/
“coal, wood, or agricultural products used to manufacture biofuels, or uranium in any form, as well as the development, production, generation, transmission, or exchange of power, through any means, including nuclear, thermal, and renewable energy sources 4/
The banks that are de-sanctioned are:
The Central Bank of Russia
Vnesheconombank
Otkritie
Sovcombank Open Joint Stock Company
Sberbank of Russia;
VTB Bank
Alfa-Bank
Rosbank
Bank Zenit
Bank Saint-Petersburg 5X
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But first let’s admit the obvious: The US deescalation doctrine doesn’t work.
Think about it! There hasn’t been a single instance of Russia deescalating in response to any action by Ukraine or the West. 2/
The Black Sea gain deal, partial easing of sanctions on energy and agriculture, the U.S. restrictions on Ukraine to strike deep in Russia, delays in supply Ukraine with weapons that it asked for - none of it resulted in deescalation by Russia 5/
Mario Nawfal posted today that Ukraine forces pregnant women to serve in the military while strippers are exempt
There were easy signs that the accusation is false, yet the post gained almost 200K until it was removed.
What were the signs? 1/
First, women are not required to serve in Ukraine military. They can volunteer, but they are definitely not forced. This is generally know or can be inferred. It is men who are restricted from leaving Ukraine, but not women
Anyone who talks to Ukrainian refugees knows this 2/
The post was quickly rebutted, Mario removed it and apologized. This is ethical and respectful of him. Mistakes happen. It is the model how to react to them.
Yet, the damage was done. We know from social media research that fake news travel 10-20 times faster than truth. 3/
Ukraine is on the brink. A fresh Russian push’ll test Ukraine severely
It is a matter of time until Chasiv Yar falls; Dark days ahead for Kharkiv
This war will end with negotiations; they won’t happen until late 2025 or 2026 1/
The general - Major-General Vadym Skibitsky - is a deputy head of Ukraine's military intelligence agency.
His boss Budanov has achieved an almost legendary status in Ukraine and abroad. 2/
Skibitskiy says Russia will first push to get the rest of Donetsk and Luhansk. The immediate threat is Chasiv Yar. It is the key for Russia to access the last remaining large cities in the region, which are just 30-40 km away. 2/
It is ridiculous how Ukraine ignores high-priority targets and attacks low priority targets in Russia, says an observer criticizing Ukrainian attack on Russian oil refinery in Ryazan
Let’s take this argument seriously and think about what Ru targets should Ukraine hit first 1/
But first let’s look at what Ukraine is hitting now.
The recent deep strikes have focused on oil refineries. They have not focused on crude oil production, electricity grid, command centers, or weapon storage facilities. 2/
There are of course strikes on command centers and weapons storage facilities closer to the front lines. One recent example is an ATACAMS attack on Russian training center in Luhansk region 3/
A deeply touching story of love in war and occupation
Anna and Volodymyr are an elderly married couple. Anna is blind, Volodymyr can hardly walk
They travelled 1000s of miles from occupied Ukraine through Russia to cross back to free Ukraine 1/
They were in an occupied village in Kherson village and went around Ukraine through Russia to get back into Ukraine where the crossing was safer and Red Cross operated at the Russian - Ukrainian border 2/
Yes, if you are wondering, Red Cross can facilitate border crossings in the north east of Ukraine. There is war there too, with attacks, incursions, missiles, but it is much less intense (so to speak) 3/