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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
May 5 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
The people on X saying Ukraine couldn't use ATACMS in the counter-battery role against Russian tactical ballistic missiles were shills, toadies, and trolls.

No one who was at all reality-based would have said anything so stupid.

"WHEN THE GODS OF ARTILLERY MAKE A POINT"🧵
1/
2016 article at the link titled in english "WHEN THE GODS OF ARTILLERY MAKE A POINT" makes clear Ukraine had a very tight intelligence/surveillance/reconnaissance kill chain between its Spetsnaz and it's Tochka-U TBM & 300mm MLRS batteries.

2/
 petrimazepa.com/goddot.html
These Spetsnaz teams spotted 120km Tochka-U & 90 km Smersh fire strikes to clear a "Fire corredor" maneuver lane for these OMG operations during the 2014-2015 ATO.

This was pre-ATO (2014) Ukrainian military doctrine used during the ATO.

3/

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The idea that Ukrainian Spetsnaz and drones in 2024 wouldn't do better using ATACMS, given their decade old and tested repeatedly in combat tactics, techniques & procedures (TTP) from the 2014-2015 ATO says a great deal -- none of it good -- about the naysayers.

4/4 End
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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
May 6
There are still Western military officers -- including most flag ranks -- watching videos like the one below and denying FPV and other cheap DJI drones have fundamentally changed the way wars on the ground are fought.

Drone War🧵
1/7
A year ago Ukraine had 10,000 drone operators, one per 100 troops

It has trained far more since then.

In fact, the AFU has created a military drone branch co-equal to infantry and artillery branches.

2/7
In some forward areas there are now as many Ukrainian drone operators as infantry because FPV drones have all but replaced crew served infantry weapons.


3/7
Read 8 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
May 4
What this Russian chemical feedstock for explosive production supply issue @Schizointel tells us about in his post below...⬇️

Russian Explosive Supply Chain🧵
1/
...means that the Russian TogliattiAzot ammonia production facility just became a priority target for Ukraine's OWA-drone strategic bombing campaign.

The distance by car between Kharkiv, Ukraine and Tolyatti, Russia is 982 km.

2/
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It's less by air for a Ukrainian OWA-drone.

And since it was made with Western loans, there is insurance data in the West detailing the lay out of the plant for precision OWA-Drone strikes.

That's an example of the weakness of Soviet Union/Russian "one big plant" industrial infrastructure.

3/3
 [H/T @CovertShores for the AFU Drone infographic]Image
Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
May 2
Just...Finally!!!

Russian electrical railway substations are the key transportation infrastructure powering 70% of Russia's freight & passenger locomotives.

This is hard to replace long lead item (months) electrical infrastructure.

AFU Strategic Bombing 🧵
1/

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Systematic targeting of these electrical facilities powering the railways within 200 km of Ukraine's 1991 border with Russia will logistically isolate the RuAF frontline units in Ukraine from 70% of rail supply.

Map H/T @Textyorgua_Eng
2/
 en.defence-ua.com/news/ukrainian…
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Russia simply lacks the low level integrated air defenses after two years of attrition in occupied Ukraine to prevent this.

_IF_ Ukraine goes after this target set with a will.

3/
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Read 8 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 29
This is a symptom of the Russians lacking the industrial capability to make enough 152 mm barrel liners and the lack of 152 mm barrel life in reserve artillery stocks.⬇️

Russian barrel shortage🧵
1/
This was passed on to be by a Cold War graybeard in the Summer of 2022:

"A colleague who has worked in the area told me years ago that a lot of the cited strategic reserve is mythological as they burned out barrel liners

2/
...on tens of thousands of tank guns and artillery pieces during the Chechen wars and ended up with massive yards full of derelict armor and guns needing deep overhauls. Gun barrels only part of this, lots of burned out engines, transmissions and wrecked suspensions.
3/
Read 7 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 27
I had a few pro-Russian trolls denying the effectiveness of cluster munitions on Russian railway infrastructure and engines the other day.⬇️🤣

Rail yards are one definition of "soft target."

1/
ATACMS M79 APAM submunitions hit far harder than the .50 caliber guns of WW2 fighter planes.

Here is are WW2 .50 caliber machine gun train strafing films to calibrate your eyes.

2/
And this is a ATACMS M79 cluster munitions weapons effect video hitting a simulated surface to air missile battery target.

Ukraine will soon have the ATACMS capability to strike every railyard inside Russian occupied Ukraine simultaneously. 😈

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 27
This Russian translation 🧵by @sambendett of Russian drone volunteer Aleksei Chadaev criticisms of Russia's drone procurement system are worth a read.

They also confirm a Nov 2023 Chicagoboyz blog essay of mine about the EW game in Ukraine.

Ukrainian Civil Society at war🧵
1/
I did a direct message interview with Forbes Magazine journalist David Axe the first week of November 2023 about the state of the “Wizard War,” that is electronic warfare, between Ukraine and Russia.

See the link below:
2/
chicagoboyz.net/archives/70303…
As I said then:

"The Russian problem with using electronic warfare is sociological. A centralized authoritarian who picks for political loyalty for 20 years also picks for corruption and incompetence for just as long. Putin’s military has extreme levels of incompetence at every level, from top to bottom, as a result. In a centrally controlled system like Russia, the stupidity of the commander flows downhill."

3/
Read 21 tweets

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