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Jompy Profile picture
@Jonpy99
May 6 • 28 tweets • 9 min read • Read on X
1/ Thread about my estimations on what currently remains in Russian storage. Consider that even the most recent footage from @Vishun_military is already 2-4 months old, and almost everything else is far older. Image
2/ Here you have my most recent AFV count: Image
3/ Back when @HighMarsed and I published the results of our prewar analysis, I also posted what I estamated Russia had in storage by late January/early February 2024. I wasn't that far off for the most part:
4/ So let's try this thought excercise again. Here are the armor I think Russia has currently still in storage, as of early May 2024, based on the last 6 months of high-intensity attrition: Image
5/ Beware, I might be completely in the wrong, this is just what my guts tell me. But after spending so much time looking at Russian depots and repair plants and noticing trends, I think I have the right to be confident on my numbers. Image
6/ Regarding most stuff, like BMPs, BTRs, MT-LBs, BMDs and such, I already made threads on all of them. If you have read them you'll know why I believe in these numbers.
Image
Image
7/ However, some trends I noticed recently, and also other people made me noticed after posting my thoughts here on X, such as @naalsio26. For example, Russians have been using BRDM-2s a lot more than I thought.
8/ I wasn't expecting that to happen so soon considering that we barely see any BRDM-2 loss.
9/ I didn't expect Russia to start using BRDM-2s en masse to secure rear areas until at least mid 2024.
10/ On the other hand, MT-LBus look to still be a very rare and weird armored vehicle to see in Russian hands in Ukraine, with just an occassional loss here and there when there's nothing else to use for assaults.
11/ While we are at this, I already explained in detail why MT-LBs are going to share the same fate as teh dinosaurs.
12/ While MT-LBs running out in storage won't mean they'll be gone from the battlefield too anytime soon as Russia probably fields 1000-2000 of those currently, they won't be replaced anymore and will slowly run out from active service too.
13/ Same thing regarding BMDs, but probably the situation regarding them is even more critical by now. The fact that they're refurbishing BMD-based support vehicles is pretty telling.
14/ However, BDM-4s and BTR-MDMs are in active production, although probably in pretty minor numbers per year (there's no clear info on their production). Image
15/ Finally, the heavy lifters: BMPs and BTRs. First, Russia seems to be using even old BTR-60-based artillery support vehicles as APCs in the rear.
16/ BTR-70s are slowly starting to appear is weekly casualties reports, although in tiny and rare numbers so far. But I believe this is just the beginning of a trend.
17/ I'm curious whether Russia will try to mass refurbish them into BTR-70Ms, or simply send them to battle as they are.
18/ BTR-80s are probably entirely gone from storage by now.
19/
20/ BTR-82s are, however, in active production and at a pretty solid rate too.
21/ Finally, BMPs. BMP-3s are long gone from storage, though in active production, and they too with good yearly three digit figures.
22/ I believe there's practically no BMP-2s left in storage either, but there are still hundreds at BTRZs.
23/ And thousands in active service both in the army and Rogsvardia and the Border Guard, from which the army is probably taking BMP-2s to replace losses, which explains why, despite a reduction in loss share, they're still kicking. It's the same for BTR-80s.
24/ I also initially misidentified BRM-1s as BMP-2s.
25/ Finally, regarding BMP-1s... well, there are still many, but the rate of cannibalization has gone up like crazy in the last 6-8 months.
26/ Another useful graphic by @verekerrichard1.
@verekerrichard1 27/ Even rusted and cannibalized BMP hulls are starting to be considerable for refurbishment at BTRZs.
@verekerrichard1 28/ And with this my thread on my own estimates driven by my ego is finished. Consider this either the epilogue of my AFV count threads, or the prologue to my final thread on projections on Russian stored armor. Image

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More from @Jonpy99

Jompy Profile picture
May 4
1/ It's time to show the rest of BMPs and BTRs left in Russian storage. Here's my final thread on AFV counts. Image
2/ Here you have the numbers at the remaining storage bases storing BMPs and BTRs which I haven't covered until now, with outdated dates in orange. First BMPs:
Image
Image
3/ And BTRs:
Image
Image
Read 44 tweets
Jompy Profile picture
May 2
1/ Updated 2024 BTRZ count and analysis. This time with actual updated footage thanks to @Vishun_military and @waffentraeger. Image
2/ First of all here are the updated numbers of all BTRZs, plus the main Russian armor factories: Image
3/ Here is the prewar BTRZ count:
Read 50 tweets
Jompy Profile picture
Apr 28
1/ Analysis on @Vishun_military footage of the 22nd, 227th/769th, 1295th, 111th, 1311th, 3018th/6018th and 2544th Russian storage bases. Image
2/ Here you have the numbers of all bases and the comparison with the prewar numbers @HighMarsed and I counted. First, BMPs: Image
3/ BTR-60/70/80s: Image
Read 41 tweets
Jompy Profile picture
Apr 27
1/ Time for the last of my individual AFV counts for now. This time is the BRDM-2, the obsolete Soviet armored scout car. Image
2/ Here are the numbers from prewar and latest footage of BRDM-2s in Russian storage by @HighMarsed and me: 1300 vehicles in 2021 and 1188 nowadays, including 251 visibly broken ones.

I had to split the table in two screenshots because otherwise it wouldn't fit. Specially old footage is marked in orange, as usual.Image
Image
3/ Here's my previous thread on stored BRDM-2s:
Read 21 tweets
Jompy Profile picture
Apr 27
1/ Updated MT-LBu count. There haven't been a lot of movement of MT-LBus in storage, but still, let's see how things have changed since 2021. Image
2/ First, numbers from prewar and recent footage. @HighMarsed and I found 1229 stored MT-LBs before the war, and now there are 1053, so at least 176 have been removed from military storage bases. As usual, especially old footage dates is marked in orange. Image
3/ A bit of a reminder of my previous MT-LBu thread, where I explained some bits about them.
Read 17 tweets
Jompy Profile picture
Apr 26
1/ Updated BTR-50 count. This thread is gonna be very short, as there were never many BTR-50s in storage in the first place, but it is what it is. Image
2/ First, here you have the prewar and current count. As you can see I eventually found some extra stored BTR-50s during prewar times compared to the original count made by myself and @HighMarsed: 125 BTR-50s in total. By now only 50 remain, less than half, and probably all of them broken and unparable husks.Image
3/ I also made a thread with interesting bits on BTR-50s in storage a while ago, and most of the information released in that thread has stayed exactly the same as of 2024 footage provided by @Vishun_military:
Read 22 tweets

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