Thread by @ori_goldberg

1/ I have seen the Israeli military and political machine falter before, on the verge of being forced to end past wars. I believe this is what is happening now. Israel is putting on a show meant mostly for domestic consumption. --->

2/ Netanyahu and his cronies and accessories, particularly those with military experience (Gantz and Eisenkot), want to tell the Israeli Jewish public (that overwhelmingly supports the "war") that Israel has "operated" in Rafah. There is nowhere else to go in the Gaza strip. --->

3/ Israel can thus claim it has "exhausted" all military options before it capitualtes to the pressure applied by the US, Saudi Arabia and just about everyone else. I don't think conspiracy is afoot to occupy Gaza. The religious right is interested but no one else is. --->

4/ I don't think Israel is interested in slaughtering as many Palestinians as possible. I think, and this shames me deeply, that Israel sheds Palestinian blood with no thought at all. Palestinians have been completely dehumanized by Israelis. We simply don't care. --->

5/ And so I believe what we are seeing in Rafah is a last attempt at appearing competent and full of conviction, defying the world to enhance Israeli security. That is, of course, a sham. I base my assessment also on the minimal resistance Israel has encountered in Rafah. --->

6/ Hamas has no reason to fight, having made its strategic decision. Hamas has opted for a deal. It controls the narrative, forcing Israel to "react". Hamas has nothing to gain from fighting so it doesn't fight. No fixation on the murder of Jews; just common sense. --->

7/ In its own mind, Israel cannot appear "weak", as acceptance of a deal has been spun as "surrendering" here by the PM and his government. Had Israel initiated a deal earlier it may have been less painful now. So Israel will buck and shudder but awareness is seeping in. --->

8/ All sorts of things suddenly make the Israeli headlines now, most prominently issues of personal appointments and official reviews of the war. This is to be expected when the end is in sight. Remember also that Israel will be celebrating Independence Day next Tuesday. --->

9/ Netanyahu wants to appear valiant and focused. Because he is who he is, because Israel is what it is, he is procrastinating, bobbing and weaving. He knows it shows. He knows his pants are on fire. There is plenty of damage to do and blood to shed, but the war is lost.