1/ Yedioth Ahronoth, one of Israel's leading newspapers, published a full-page article today on the Gaza "war". This was an attempt to assess the reasons and origins of the war as well as to offer a "way forward" and a potential prognosis for Israel and Gaza. ---> 2/ The text is truly, literally incredible. I could write dozens of pages analyzing it, but that is not for this platform. It provides a strategic conspiracy brief running the gamut from Hizballah's invasion of the Galilee to Iran's plan for destroying Israel in two years. --->

1/ Unconfirmed reports suggest Israel plans to sabotage the hostage and ceasefire deal Hamas has accepted in full accordance with Israeli demands. Israel bombed a school in Nusseirat and killed 15 DPs, claiming the school served as a "Hamas HQ". There is a relation. ---> 2/ Israel persists with the lie of "destroying Hamas". This lie underpins both the rejection of a deal Israel itself concocted and the assumption that Israel can kill as many Palestinians as it wants if it claims "Hamas" was present at the scene. This is the root of evil. --->

1/ I know many of my readers consider Israel's genocidal campaign in Gaza to be the product of long-term (perhaps even historic) planning, a Zionist dream come true. I see your point but beg to differ. The Gaza genocide is a disheartening display of crass stupidity. ---> 2/ The horrors of Gaza, the dead and the wounded, the homeless and the starving, almost demand the presence of a diabolical master plan. Otherwise, how could we (at the very least) learn to reject evil and embrace goodness? This is the minimal redemption required. --->

1/ Apparently, the new objective for Israel is walking away from Gaza without admitting it is walking away from Gaza. The genocide will end with a whimper. Why? Because it remains politically risky to call for an end to the "war" and even riskier to claim responsibility. ---> 2/ How is Israel hoping to accomplish this? It is already allowing Gazans to begin rebuilding electricity infrastructure in order to operate the desalination plant as well as some power plants. This is presented as a "humanitarian gesture". That is a lie. --->

1/ Israel is split down its middle, simultaneously operating in two parallel realities. In one, Israel is marching to glory in Gaza (and then in Lebanon). In the other, Israel is disintegrating into a chaotic battle between factions and warlords. Implosion is a process. ---> 2/ It gets even more convoluted. No one believes Israel is on the verge of victory. Those who claim they do are promoting other agendas, most prominently the removal of Gazans and Palestinians in general from Palestine. Gaza, genocided and geocided, is now a black hole. --->

1/ The IDF and Shin Bet have released Shifa hospital director Mohammad Abu Salmiya after months of detention back to the Gaza strip. Israel's government is in an uproar. This state of affairs demonstrates the depths of Israel's unhinged mendacity. ---> 2/ IDF and Shin Bet don't release a-n-y-o-n-e unless they absolutely have to because not even the most trumped up charges will stick. The director's release proves conclusively that the entire campaign around the destruction of Shifa was a barefaced lie. --->

1/ Tens of thousands of Israelis are demonstrating tonight across the country. They are calling for elections and for a hostage deal. They accuse Netanyahu and his base and government of "hijacking" the country. Very few are calling for an end to the "war". ---> 2/ July 1st will see the first self-identified mass leftwing rally since the genocidal campaign in Gaza began. Small groups of heroic activists have been demonstrating for 9 months. They are the only ones who have been calling for Israel to stop its crimes. --->

1/ "Haaretz", Israel's newspaper of record, published an op-ed piece by Benny Morris, a history professor from Ben Gurion university in Beersheva. Morris is often accredited with authoring the first historical works critical of Israel's official formation narrative. ---> 2/ That, in Israel, would have placed him on the political left. But Morris has never been a leftwinger and claims his profound knowledge of Arab narratives gives him insights into their "true" nature and plans. This time Morris took on Israel's Iran policy. --->

1/ Israelis of all stripes are united in their rejection of solidarity. Someone is always pushed out of the circle, blamed for the ills and evils of the current Israeli condition. This immediately cancels any attempt to speak of practical measures of alleviation. ---> 2/ Centrist Israelis reject a political partnership with Palestinian Israelis. They are "not ready for a government requiring Palestinian-Israeli votes", says the leader of the "opposition". The current government would simply scoff at the mere thought. --->

1/ Netanyahu is being led to the altar, kicking and screaming. He will sign a deal with Hamas and the fighting in Gaza will end. He may declare "mission accomplished" or berate his rivals for their "Chamberlainesque" tactics. It doesn't matter. He has overplayed his hand. ---> 2/ A sign of Netanyahu's impending shame is his bickering with "opposition" leader, Yair Lapid. When Netanyahu feels strong he does not dignify his "rivals" with personal reactions. He sends a minion or leaks a derogatory rumor. Personal statements are rarer than radium. --->

1/ I can envision two scenarios for Israel and Lebanon. One features a war and one does not. I will describe each one and explain why I think that ultimately there will not be a war: ---> 2/ Let's start with the war. Why is war an option? First, because it is good for Netanyahu. War prevents the dissolution of his government. Israelis tend to support war. Second, it is good for the IDF. Gaza will stand as the IDF's greatest defeat. Lebanon offers redemption. --->

1/ The Israeli military is the main force behind the public push towards a war with Lebanon. There are three reasons
for this state of affairs. The first is the growing realization in the IDF that there will be no "victory" in Gaza. The "war" is an abysmal failure. ---> 2/ This is an important point. I hear many voices saying the Gazan genocide was planned out from the start. I don't agree. Israel convinced itself it could "eradicate" Hamas exclusively. Israel failed. Israelis don't care about the death of Palestinian civilians. --->

1/ A new phenomenon is taking Israeli social media by storm. Packs of virtual attack dogs, self-appointed justices of the peace, are attempting to shame-purge the few remaining voices left in opposition to the narrative of impending, necessary death (by us/for us). ---> 2/ I was a victim, but that is of no consequence (except being saddening and angering in equal measures). These "monitors" are often people who have seen the light, those who have "sobered up" from seemingly leftwing convictions (never real) held before the Hamas massacre. --->

1/ The yang to the yin of exceptionalism is "destruction". Every enemy Israel has wants to destroy it. They will settle for nothing less. This is true for the Palestinians, the Iranians, the Lebanese... They all have plans for the "destruction of Israel". Victims above all. ---> 2/ I cannot exaggerate the foundational importance of this axiom to Israel's sense of self-validation. At the heart of Israeliness lies the notion of "security". Security means keeping Jews alive. That is the basic consensus and it requires preparing for destruction. --->

1/ Whenever I tweet in Hebrew, especially when I receive responses in Hebrew, I am reminded how deeply Israelis believe in their own exceptionalism. So deeply, in fact, that I think this faith and our faith in Jewish supremacy are ultimately one and the same. ---> 2/ What does exceptionalism entail? First, the belief that we alone are complex and three-dimensional. Everyone else is two-dimensional at best. We understand context ("The soldiers in Gaza burning and looting? Young people letting off steam!). We know nuance. --->

1/ The American resolution approved by the UNSC has been accepted by Hamas. It is a resolution drafted by Israel. Still, Israel is the one rejecting it. This is all about domestic Israeli politics. Most Israelis support the genocide. Most Israelis dislike Netanyahu. ---> 2/ Netanyahu is trying to figure out how to stay in power. He is beholden to the religious right even as they continue to make his ICC-related arrest more likely. He does not share their ideology. Netanyahu is soundly disliked by the Israeli center. It is personal. --->

1/ There is nothing inherently evil about Zionists; there is nothing inherently evil about Germans; there is nothing inherently evil about Iranians; there is nothing inherently evil about Belgians or about the British. Evil is not inherent. Evil takes root and grows. ---> 2/ What is evil, abhorrent and unacceptable, is the acceptance, the averted gaze and, finally the pleasure taken in the rotten fruit. The corruption is evil, slow and methodical, until putrescence seems an essentail condition of reality. Evil is not retrospective. --->

1/ Perhaps the most comforting cliché is that sanity, as opposed to radicalism, lies in the middle ground. "Life isn't perfect", "you can't have it all", and also "there's no such thing as a free lunch". The middle is where it gets complicated, and that's where it gets real. ---> 2/ If there is one broad, global lesson taught by Israel's fall from grace it is that the middle can also be the greatest generator of death. It isn't necessarily dramatic death (and perhaps that is why it evades detection). It is grim and glum and reluctant. Still death. --->

1/ Four Israeli hostages have been released by an Israeli operation in Nusseirat RC. The operation began several days ago with extremely lethal strikes on the camp, including on the school that was decribed as a "Hamas stronghold". This is an intensely ambivalent moment. ---> 2/ On the one, immediate hand, it is good to see the hostages released. Their plight was horrific. I am happy that they will return to their loved ones. On every other, less immediate hand, this tactical success spells a tsunami of blood and destruction. --->

1/ The game's afoot. Netanyahu is hedging, hemming and hawing. He has always done this. He never commits. Netanyahu is afraid of clear-cut decisions. In this case he has a dilemma. His political survival has for years depended on the support of the religious right. ---> 2/ They are not ideological allies. The settlers are staunch and uncompromising. They want a Jewish apartheid empire. Netanyahu sees himself as a Jewish politician, bobbing and weaving to "keep Jews safe". The settlers have already left Netanyahu before when he strayed. --->

1/ Israel is turning to disassociation as its main coping strategy with its impending implosion. First, there is a conscious disavowal of the government. It isn't about political agendas. Israelis broadly support the genocide. It is about "incompetence". ---> 2/ "We deserve better" is the battle cry. It doesn't matter what we or our government think. When push came to shove, when it was crunch time, Israel's citizens stepped up. They joined the army reserves, they volunteered, they persevered. The government bailed. --->