Sisyphus Profile picture
May 8 8 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Yesterday I used to launch a funny meme [yes, really]. Of the 48% from the dev wallet: 28% is burned, 10% is locked for a year and 10% is locked for ten years. I don't have any other supply

Some interesting learnings about the memecoin factory from this: pump.fun
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1. Basically everyone expects coins to instantly rug even on . Dev supply is assumed to be at risk of being sold from minute 1
2. Constant coordinated artificial shilling is required to get a coin to critical mass. Coins do not organically formpump.fun
3. Transparency is actually bad. If the dev sells even 1% of supply it would likely kill the coin. Side wallets and bundling are extremely common so that people can manipulate supply
4. Even for "good coins" with controlled supply 80% drawdowns are normal & price swings wildly
5. Adding to point 3, even with transparency the assumption is something nefarious is happening. People assume if the coin is going down the dev is doing something bad. Much better off to accumulate on side wallets + push CTO narrative
6. You need a massive support staff to make a memecoin go up. Dev needs moderators 24/7, someone to manage Twitter, people to organize raids
7. KOLs are kind of important for artificially generating exposure, but giving away unvested tokens doesn't really work that well
8. Coins are at risk of dying at literally any point below $100 million market cap. Above that, it feels like things become more "real" because there's enough virality behind it to push it higher
9. vibes are predominantly, but not entirely price driven. In the last 20 minutes the catholic cat telegram went from a bunch of people telling me I was evil to a bunch of people telling me I was the pope. Another point suggesting CTO is much better than having a figurehead
10. if i had to weight it, memecoin success is about 75% inorganic and 25% organic. Your meme has to be funny to do well, but only because behind the scenes larger accounts are getting distributed supply from side wallets or being told to buy something before a catalyst

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More from @0xSisyphus

Sep 3, 2023
In six months, this prior $10-15 billion FDV benchmark for L1s and L2s has come down to $5-8 billion, or roughly half. Solana is the only VC chain that still trades at >$10 billion

As unlocks happen, and new L1 and L2 tokens keep launching, market should thin out further
There is not that much more breadth in this market than there used to be

Aptos and Sui have literally nothing built on them and trade in-line with L1s and L2s that have significant activity
Total alt L1/L2 liquidity: Simple calculation of market cap for the following 7 tokens (SOL+MATIC+AVAX+SUI+APT+ARB+OP)

$26.5 billion of market cap on 3/27/23, and about $20 billion of market cap today (down ~25% in 6 months). FDV's are down more than mcap because of unlocks
Read 6 tweets
Jul 20, 2022
the hardest part of adjusting from a bear to a bull market for most people is they become too short-termist

markets typically bottom with long-term capital buying first, and then mid to short-term speculators following
if the buyers of ETH didn't care about the 9% inflation print, the hiring freezes at megacap companies and the risk of a deep recession in the US, why will they care about elon musk announcing he sold bitcoin
if you are worried about macro, but think there will be persistent eth inflows, longing ethbtc is a better option than ethusd
Read 4 tweets
Jul 20, 2022
i would begin your preparations to return to this state

august is historically a quiet month, enjoy the time while we hopefully have some left
every single retail metric remains totally dead, with no uptick since last week, but if price rises and those gains stick in any meaningful way, these metrics will begin recovering as if by magic
in retrospect

august 2018 was ICO mania (skippable unless you had some crazy edge on getting into these)
august 2019 was skippable
august 2020 was defi summer
august 2021 was art blocks bubble

both 2020 and 2021 had massive opportunity cost associated with not paying attention
Read 4 tweets
Mar 8, 2022
@icebergy_ probably funds with dry powder (many who raised in last 6 months) buying BTC and ETH with the "sovereign money" narrative

retail interest (search volumes), on chain activity (gas + tx fees) at something close to multi year lows
@icebergy_ if current conditions continue (ie there is no catalyst for retail to come back into crypto and buy tokens) these funds have nobody to sell to
@icebergy_ maybe if more funds start taking liquid token positions, the ones that pivot early are rewarded (I think most private capital is underindexed ETH and BTC still)

but from what i see most funds just wanna do more primary (private sales/fundraises)
Read 10 tweets
Dec 29, 2021
Generally speaking people underestimate the opportunity cost of passively holding assets through down cycles

Complacency is always punished
something ironic about people swearing off margin/leverage but being totally ok with leverage being baked into the underlying asset too
Think both of these misunderstandings stem from same place

Even if you are holding spot you’re always “paying funding” for not holding other things
Read 4 tweets
Jun 29, 2021
two more (unrelated) thoughts before I go:

I have discussed before how I think most defi protocols have no durable pricing power. Market demand decides what they can charge

MKR SF went from 5.5% to 1.5% in ~3 months. That is a ~75% decline in take rate

blog.makerdao.com/governance-pol…
Second was that over wknd we got first ever clinical data on gene editing therapies - company called NTLA was able to insert new genetic info into human body and rewrite certain genes in human liver

potential new paradigm for therapeutics

fiercebiotech.com/biotech/first-…
betting on crypto is sort of like betting on biotech, a lot of it is just perception of potential future usage

NTLA at $10bn mcap without having dosed a single person simply for the future potential of CRISPR/Cas9 gene editing

More interesting to look at the picks and shovels
Read 7 tweets

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