Yesterday I used to launch a funny meme [yes, really]. Of the 48% from the dev wallet: 28% is burned, 10% is locked for a year and 10% is locked for ten years. I don't have any other supply
Some interesting learnings about the memecoin factory from this: pump.fun
1. Basically everyone expects coins to instantly rug even on . Dev supply is assumed to be at risk of being sold from minute 1 2. Constant coordinated artificial shilling is required to get a coin to critical mass. Coins do not organically formpump.fun
3. Transparency is actually bad. If the dev sells even 1% of supply it would likely kill the coin. Side wallets and bundling are extremely common so that people can manipulate supply 4. Even for "good coins" with controlled supply 80% drawdowns are normal & price swings wildly
5. Adding to point 3, even with transparency the assumption is something nefarious is happening. People assume if the coin is going down the dev is doing something bad. Much better off to accumulate on side wallets + push CTO narrative
6. You need a massive support staff to make a memecoin go up. Dev needs moderators 24/7, someone to manage Twitter, people to organize raids 7. KOLs are kind of important for artificially generating exposure, but giving away unvested tokens doesn't really work that well
8. Coins are at risk of dying at literally any point below $100 million market cap. Above that, it feels like things become more "real" because there's enough virality behind it to push it higher
9. vibes are predominantly, but not entirely price driven. In the last 20 minutes the catholic cat telegram went from a bunch of people telling me I was evil to a bunch of people telling me I was the pope. Another point suggesting CTO is much better than having a figurehead
10. if i had to weight it, memecoin success is about 75% inorganic and 25% organic. Your meme has to be funny to do well, but only because behind the scenes larger accounts are getting distributed supply from side wallets or being told to buy something before a catalyst
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In six months, this prior $10-15 billion FDV benchmark for L1s and L2s has come down to $5-8 billion, or roughly half. Solana is the only VC chain that still trades at >$10 billion
As unlocks happen, and new L1 and L2 tokens keep launching, market should thin out further
There is not that much more breadth in this market than there used to be
Aptos and Sui have literally nothing built on them and trade in-line with L1s and L2s that have significant activity
Total alt L1/L2 liquidity: Simple calculation of market cap for the following 7 tokens (SOL+MATIC+AVAX+SUI+APT+ARB+OP)
$26.5 billion of market cap on 3/27/23, and about $20 billion of market cap today (down ~25% in 6 months). FDV's are down more than mcap because of unlocks
the hardest part of adjusting from a bear to a bull market for most people is they become too short-termist
markets typically bottom with long-term capital buying first, and then mid to short-term speculators following
if the buyers of ETH didn't care about the 9% inflation print, the hiring freezes at megacap companies and the risk of a deep recession in the US, why will they care about elon musk announcing he sold bitcoin
if you are worried about macro, but think there will be persistent eth inflows, longing ethbtc is a better option than ethusd
every single retail metric remains totally dead, with no uptick since last week, but if price rises and those gains stick in any meaningful way, these metrics will begin recovering as if by magic
in retrospect
august 2018 was ICO mania (skippable unless you had some crazy edge on getting into these)
august 2019 was skippable
august 2020 was defi summer
august 2021 was art blocks bubble
both 2020 and 2021 had massive opportunity cost associated with not paying attention
@icebergy_ probably funds with dry powder (many who raised in last 6 months) buying BTC and ETH with the "sovereign money" narrative
retail interest (search volumes), on chain activity (gas + tx fees) at something close to multi year lows
@icebergy_ if current conditions continue (ie there is no catalyst for retail to come back into crypto and buy tokens) these funds have nobody to sell to
@icebergy_ maybe if more funds start taking liquid token positions, the ones that pivot early are rewarded (I think most private capital is underindexed ETH and BTC still)
but from what i see most funds just wanna do more primary (private sales/fundraises)
Second was that over wknd we got first ever clinical data on gene editing therapies - company called NTLA was able to insert new genetic info into human body and rewrite certain genes in human liver