NVDA is bigger than the entire crypto market and is handily outperforming Bitcoin on most timeframes i could think of: YTD, from 1 year ago, from 2022 bottom, from 3 years ago, from 5 years ago, from 7 years ago, from 10 years ago...
Fundamentals do matter in real industries
Its easy to fall into fallacies of "nothing matters besides attention" or "everything is a scam", but ultimately real long-term outperformance is driven by predicting the likelihood for an asset to generate huge cash flows at some future date
May 8 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Yesterday I used to launch a funny meme [yes, really]. Of the 48% from the dev wallet: 28% is burned, 10% is locked for a year and 10% is locked for ten years. I don't have any other supply
Some interesting learnings about the memecoin factory from this: pump.fun 1. Basically everyone expects coins to instantly rug even on . Dev supply is assumed to be at risk of being sold from minute 1 2. Constant coordinated artificial shilling is required to get a coin to critical mass. Coins do not organically formpump.fun
Sep 3, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
In six months, this prior $10-15 billion FDV benchmark for L1s and L2s has come down to $5-8 billion, or roughly half. Solana is the only VC chain that still trades at >$10 billion
As unlocks happen, and new L1 and L2 tokens keep launching, market should thin out further
There is not that much more breadth in this market than there used to be
Aptos and Sui have literally nothing built on them and trade in-line with L1s and L2s that have significant activity
Jul 20, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
the hardest part of adjusting from a bear to a bull market for most people is they become too short-termist
markets typically bottom with long-term capital buying first, and then mid to short-term speculators following
if the buyers of ETH didn't care about the 9% inflation print, the hiring freezes at megacap companies and the risk of a deep recession in the US, why will they care about elon musk announcing he sold bitcoin
Jul 20, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
i would begin your preparations to return to this state
august is historically a quiet month, enjoy the time while we hopefully have some left
every single retail metric remains totally dead, with no uptick since last week, but if price rises and those gains stick in any meaningful way, these metrics will begin recovering as if by magic
Mar 8, 2022 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
@icebergy_ probably funds with dry powder (many who raised in last 6 months) buying BTC and ETH with the "sovereign money" narrative
retail interest (search volumes), on chain activity (gas + tx fees) at something close to multi year lows
@icebergy_ if current conditions continue (ie there is no catalyst for retail to come back into crypto and buy tokens) these funds have nobody to sell to
Dec 29, 2021 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Generally speaking people underestimate the opportunity cost of passively holding assets through down cycles
Complacency is always punished
something ironic about people swearing off margin/leverage but being totally ok with leverage being baked into the underlying asset too
Jun 29, 2021 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
two more (unrelated) thoughts before I go:
I have discussed before how I think most defi protocols have no durable pricing power. Market demand decides what they can charge
MKR SF went from 5.5% to 1.5% in ~3 months. That is a ~75% decline in take rate
blog.makerdao.com/governance-pol…
Second was that over wknd we got first ever clinical data on gene editing therapies - company called NTLA was able to insert new genetic info into human body and rewrite certain genes in human liver
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