Sam Freedman Profile picture
May 8 11 tweets 3 min read Read on X
A thread about one of the many public sector scandals going under the radar....

The DfE "safety valves" for special educational needs.

These were started in 2021 due to councils getting into deficit on school spending because demand for special needs support has risen so much.
There are now 38 councils with "safety valve" deals with the DfE (the euphamistic nature of the term is quite sinister).

It means they have to agree programmes of cuts to SEND support to get their deficit under control in return for additional financial support.
These cuts are driven by what it takes to get the deficit under control not need.

So in practice once councils sign up, and they have little choice, they have to suppress demand and provide less support.
We can see extensive demand suppression is going on (and not just in "safety valve" councils) because when parents take councils to tribunal they always win.

Success rate is now 98%. This is a sign of a system not working. Of course only parents with resources can do this.
But we can also see that for those children still requiring support for special needs the quality is deteroriating badly. Particularly in some councils with "safety valves".

This is from Bury's Ofsted yesterday. They were one of the first to join the programme.
Image
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Some councils have found it impossible to maintain a service and stick to their deficit reduction plan. So the DfE have suspended support. We learnt a few weeks ago they're withholding £18 million from five councils on "safety valves".

schoolsweek.co.uk/ministers-with…
This is not remotely sustainably. Support for children who need special needs support has already deteriorated badly and will keep getting worse.

The system needs more money and substantial reform. It's yet another problem that will be left for the next government to sort.
If you want to find out more about this then @samanthajbooth is basically the one journalist covering it full time.

@cjayanetti has also written a fair bit about it.
This is a list of all the councils with safety valves and what they've agreed to gov.uk/government/pub…
Not one cause. More children living longer with serious disabilities. Higher rates (and diagnosis) of autism. Increases in poverty leading to neglect. Lots of colliding factors.
As Adam notes here, the govt are currently excluding special needs debts from overall council debt but only until 2026. If included a dozen plus councils would go bankrupt so it also goes to the wider problem of local government funding.

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More from @Samfr

Mar 6
Crucial stat from the OBR.

Post-election spending assumes no growth at all for four years per capita. The 1% increases are entirely eaten up by population growth.

If you think that will happen may I send you my catalogue of delightful bridges.
Hunt has banked the growth from higher migration assumptions (now 315k a year up from 245k a year) without acknowledging the additional costs for public services.
The "NHS productivity plan" has been paid for by cutting departmental revenue spending by another 800 million a year post-election. Making already ludicrous figures even more absurd.
Read 8 tweets
Feb 14
The Public Accounts Committee report on HS2 is unreal.

"Crucially, the Department does not yet understand how HS2 will operate as a functioning railway following recent changes."

This is something that is costing us £67 billion even with the cancellation.
We could have rebuilt every school that needs it in the country for that money. And had plenty left over for other infrastructure projects.

Just completely pissed away.

And these people have the gall to lecture us about sounds finances.
An absolute shambles on every level. No accountability for this failure either.

committees.parliament.uk/publications/4…
Image
Read 4 tweets
Feb 14
The Savanta poll today is an excellent example of how polls are used to drive narrative.

It shows a 7 point drop in the Labour lead in a week that's gone very badly for them. So it gets tied into the story.

But it really shouldn't be.... (thread)
First we've had three other polls with overlapping fieldwork. Two showed an increase in the Labour lead -

R&W +4
Deltapoll +2

One showed a drop

More in Common -3

That's all just noise.
But even if we just look at Savanta....it's a drop from their last poll which showed a 19pt lead. But they did another poll just before that one which showed a 14pt lead.

Guess what if you look at that one the number of people voting Labour vs today's is:

Exactly the same!
Read 9 tweets
Jan 15
The detail of the YouGov MRP is far worse for the Tories than the topline result.

There are no seats where they score more than 40% of the vote. In only 74 do they score more than 35%.

There are fewer than 40 seats where they are 10pts ahead of the 2nd placed party.
There are just 12 seats where the Tory vote share outweights the combined Labour and LD vote share. And only two if you include the Greens as well.

Gives an indication as to the damage heavy tactical voting could do.
A couple of examples. The MRP has Stratford-upon-Avon (Zahawi's seat) as:

34% Con
31% LD
19% Lab

You've got to assume Labour are going to put zero effort into that seat and LDs will bombard with "only we can win here" leaflets.
Read 9 tweets
Dec 12, 2023
Right so Sunak now has two strategic options.

1. He strengthens the bill and gets the GB News current and future presenters roster to vote with him but makes losing in Lords/courts more likely (and Commons if "moderates" can locate their spines).
2. He does nothing and calls the right's bluff. Turns third reading into a confidence vote and forces them to choose between supporting him and losing their jobs (in many cases).
3. He offers a tiny token gesture to the right that is largely meaningless and hopes they take the out.

I'm guessing he tries 3 and then goes to 2 if that looks like it will fail. Then goes to 1 if it looks like that will fail.
Read 6 tweets
Dec 5, 2023
Right time for a PISA thread. I'm going to start by talking about what I think is the most important chart in the report and then make a few other points.
Here's the most important chart. It shows the UK is the *only* country in Europe where second generation immigrants outperform non-immigrant students. (And first generation don't do much worse). Image
What it shows is that our immigration is much more like English speaking countries outside Europe (Canada, Australia, NZ) and not at all like other Western European countries. And that our immigration is *actively improving* our education system (due to peer effects).
Read 14 tweets

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