1/ Russia has severely depleted one of their largest towed artillery storage bases. In updated images it is visible that they have removed about 60% of the stored guns and half of the remaining guns might be unusable. Data and IDs below.⬇️
2/ The updated Google Earth image is very clear, which helps a lot with identifying the guns. The IDs for 2024 are probably very accurate, but I am still not totally confident in my identififcations in the pre war footage.
3/ Here is a comparison of one of the spots pre war and 2024, with D-30 (yellow), MT-12/T-12 (green), 2A36 (red) and 2A65 (orange). In the image from March 2024 there are only some M-30 (pink) and D-30 left.
4/ Here you can see more spots storing 2A36, MT-12/T-12, M-30 and D-1/D-20 (blue). Almost all guns have been moved from here, either to a different part of the base or removed completely.
5/ Most of the remaining towed guns were moved to this spot, which only had few M-30, D-30 and 6 D-1/D-20 in pre-war images.
6/ As you can see half of the remaining guns are 122mm M-30 which was one of the main artillery pieces of the red army during WW2. They are likely mostly useless today, since they probably shouldn't use modern ammunition, although Russia might have some old ammunition in storage.
7/ Additionally it is possible that some of the remaining guns are not usable, since they have been in storage for a long time, although it is not possible to accurately asses the effects of that in the satelite footage. Cannibalization is also possible.
8/ If I had to make a prediction I would guess that likely most of the remaining D-30s, MT-12 and D-1/D-20 will be removed during 2024 and leave behind about 400 units mostly consisting of M-30s that wont be removed at all.
9/ I havent yet found a reliable way to tell D-1 and D-20 apart, since they look very similar on sat images. The size difference can only easily be spoted if they are next to each other (image artillery Museum St. Petersburg), since the measuring tools a very inaccurate.
10/ Additionally it is possible that there are other models in storage, which are stored in the same position and have similar ascpect ratios, such as M1937 (ML-20) and the M1938 (M10).
11/ There were also ~200 mortars and ~200 SPGs at the base which have all been removed already, except for a very low number of 2S1.
@Strien9 Unfortuntely the image got updated yesterday after I had posted the D-30 thread. Many of the other bases dont have images that are as clear as the new one from this base so there will likely be more ID changes in the future.
12/ There is also a large pile of scrap and wheels, which could indicate that they are cannibalizing some of the guns and only take the "good" parts, although this is just speculation.
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1/ Here are some interesting things I found in the new high resolution imagery from the russian 111th storage base. ⬇️
2/ Looking at tank and BMP numbers over the years since the 2022, it is clear that this base has been a large provider of tanks (mostly T-80, T-62 and some T-55).
3/ All T-80s have likely been removed and only some hulls that were partially scrapped in 2022 remain. Interestingly these have been moved from the red area to the area marked in blue. They might try to safe the hulls eventhough they have been without a turret for two years.
1/ Getting reliable data regarding attrition of the Russian artillery forces is very hard, but there are some trends that can be observed based on what is being removed from the storage bases, which I will present in this thread.⬇️
2/ Here are the equipment numbers visible on satelite images. Almost 11000 towed artillery units, self-propelled guns and towed mortars have been removed from visible storage since the start of the invasion.
3/ A large inital drop in the number of stored artillery systems can be observed. These were likely needed for the force expansion after the mobilization, since towed guns can be reactivated faster than SPGs, which have been removed at a more linear rate of roughly 900 per year.
1/ Since the start of the invasion Russia has removed at least 8300 units of towed artillery and mortars from their storage bases. I will provide some additional information to the count we published recently.
2/ First of all I would like to explain the new ID system. I tried to make more use of measuring the guns to put them into categories. I would like to thank @bentanmy , for looking into which systems might be in storage based on guns removed for exhibits.
3/ I have also linked all of his threads about the individual systems below. Interestingly there were even ZiS-2 and ZiS-3 removed from storage for exhibits.
1/ Here is our updated count of self propelled guns at Russian storage sites, with data points for 2022, 2023 and 2024. With @CovertCabal ⬇️
2/ As usual here is the data. Russia has so far removed roughly 1700 SPGs from storage and 60% of of their stocks remain at the bases in various conditions.
3/ Interstingly some systems have been removed at a roughly linear rate: ~220 per year for the 2S1, ~160 for the 2S3 and ~140 for the 2S9.
1/ Someone should update the "List of equipment of the Russian ground forces" on Wikipedia with Military Balance 2024 numbers. ⬇️ en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_e…
2/ Many bad assesments of Russian equipment are based on numbers from , which in turn seems to be at least partially relying on the Wikipedia article I mentioned above:globalfirepower.com
3/ The main problem with this article is that it is using some outdated numbers from The Military Balance 2022 that were corrected in 2023 and 2024.
1/ This thread aims to provide some open-source and reproducible facts about Russian pre-war tank storage. ⬇️
2/ The main reason I am writing this thread is that the only other source (except our previous counts) is The Military Balance 2022 (10200 tanks: 7000 T-72, 3000 T-80 and 200 T-90), which they have later corrected in TMB2023 and TMB2024.
3/ The IISS lists 5000 tanks of all types in storage for 2023 and 4000 for 2024, which are both very reasonable numbers. This is cleary not only an adjustment of the numbers caused by the war, but also a re-evaluation. Sadly these numbers are only quoted rarely.