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high_marsed

May 8 • 13 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X

1/ Russia has severely depleted one of their largest towed artillery storage bases. In updated images it is visible that they have removed about 60% of the stored guns and half of the remaining guns might be unusable. Data and IDs below.⬇️

2/ The updated Google Earth image is very clear, which helps a lot with identifying the guns. The IDs for 2024 are probably very accurate, but I am still not totally confident in my identififcations in the pre war footage.

3/ Here is a comparison of one of the spots pre war and 2024, with D-30 (yellow), MT-12/T-12 (green), 2A36 (red) and 2A65 (orange). In the image from March 2024 there are only some M-30 (pink) and D-30 left.

4/ Here you can see more spots storing 2A36, MT-12/T-12, M-30 and D-1/D-20 (blue). Almost all guns have been moved from here, either to a different part of the base or removed completely.

5/ Most of the remaining towed guns were moved to this spot, which only had few M-30, D-30 and 6 D-1/D-20 in pre-war images.

6/ As you can see half of the remaining guns are 122mm M-30 which was one of the main artillery pieces of the red army during WW2. They are likely mostly useless today, since they probably shouldn't use modern ammunition, although Russia might have some old ammunition in storage.

7/ Additionally it is possible that some of the remaining guns are not usable, since they have been in storage for a long time, although it is not possible to accurately asses the effects of that in the satelite footage. Cannibalization is also possible.

8/ If I had to make a prediction I would guess that likely most of the remaining D-30s, MT-12 and D-1/D-20 will be removed during 2024 and leave behind about 400 units mostly consisting of M-30s that wont be removed at all.

9/ I havent yet found a reliable way to tell D-1 and D-20 apart, since they look very similar on sat images. The size difference can only easily be spoted if they are next to each other (image artillery Museum St. Petersburg), since the measuring tools a very inaccurate.

10/ Additionally it is possible that there are other models in storage, which are stored in the same position and have similar ascpect ratios, such as M1937 (ML-20) and the M1938 (M10).

11/ There were also ~200 mortars and ~200 SPGs at the base which have all been removed already, except for a very low number of 2S1.

@Strien9 Unfortuntely the image got updated yesterday after I had posted the D-30 thread. Many of the other bases dont have images that are as clear as the new one from this base so there will likely be more ID changes in the future.

12/ There is also a large pile of scrap and wheels, which could indicate that they are cannibalizing some of the guns and only take the "good" parts, although this is just speculation.

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More from @HighMarsed

high_marsed

@HighMarsed

May 23

1/ I have recently been investigating why the share of T-72 losses seems to have decreased over the course of the war. The reason for this might be, that there are very few remaining T-72B (and modifications) left in storage. Further explanantion in this thread⬇️

2/ Below you can see a chart showing the share T-72s among the tank losses recorded by Oryx. I got the data from raptorama7 on the @projectowlosint Discord. Although the decline has slowed over time a general decrease can be observed.

3/ Looking closer at the tank storage bases I observed that most spots where I found T-72 (or modifications) have already been emptied. For example these 68 tanks at the 2544th.

Read 10 tweets

high_marsed

@HighMarsed

May 7

1/ Russia used the D-30 in low numbers before the start of the invasion, with 170 active units. Since then this towed artillery piece has become much more common and they have lost at least 74 (visually confirmed). Here is how many remain in storage. ⬇️

2/ As usual here is an overview of the D-30s stored at the storage bases counted from satelite images. As you can see the images used to count the number of remaining units are often quite old so the real number is likely much lower.

3/ The base holding the largest number of D-30 is the base near Lesoni Gorodok which had 907 units when the war started and at leat 492 have been removed already.

Read 11 tweets

high_marsed

@HighMarsed

Apr 18

1/ At the start of the invasion russian storage bases had 4327 SPGs. Since then at least 1554 have been removed and the composition of stored systems has changed. In this thread I will present some analysis based on the counted storage numbers and make predictions.⬇️

2/ Below you can see a large table showing the numbers for each base including the dates of the satelite images that were used to do the count. All threads for the individual types are linked at the end. Keep in mind that some images are old and the bases might have changed.

3/ Looking at the stored units by caliber it is visible that the only caliber that has increased its share of the stored units is 122mm, which increased from 39% to 48,7%. The reason why relatively few 2S1 have been removed could be that Russia relies more on the D-30.

Read 12 tweets

high_marsed

@HighMarsed

Apr 17

1/ Russia has lost at least 46 120mm 2S9 Nona-S according to warspotting, which represents 16% of the 280 units in active service when the invasion started. In this thread I will show how many 2S9 might be left in storage. ⬇️

2/ First of all here is an overview of the numbers by base including the dates of the satelite images I used to make this count. We made some errors regarding this type which is why the numbers are different form the last count although there is no new footage.

3/ At the 94th about 61 of the 200 2S9 stored at the base were removed by January 2024, leaving 138 in storage.

Read 10 tweets

high_marsed

@HighMarsed

Apr 8

1/ Russia has lost at least 23 152mm Giatsint-B throughout the invasion of Ukraine, although they didnt actively use this type before the war started according to The Military Balance 2022. All of the lost units came from storage and this thread shows how many might be left.⬇️

2/ First of all here is an overview of the numbers. This system seems to have one of the highest removal rates of all towed artillery, considering that by now likely more than 80% of their pre-war stocks have been removed.

3/ The base in the tiny town Planovyi is by far the largest base for storing towed artillery and had about 720 units of 2A36 in 2020. By July 2023 only 120 remained there, although the quality of the image isnt perfect and the number is likely even lower by now.

Read 13 tweets

high_marsed

@HighMarsed

Apr 6

1/ Russia has lost at least 55 (visually confirmed) of their 100 pre-war active 152mm 2S5 Giatsint-S self propelled guns, with 10 more units being damaged. In this thread I will show how many 2S5 they had in storage and how many might be left⬇️

2/ Since there is a higher number of vehicles and bases here is an overview of the numbers. Russia has at least removed 288 (~48%) and some of the remaining 2S5 have had their gun removed.

3/ Once again the 94th arsenal is the main base for storing this SPG, where at least 175 units have been removed until January 2024 (2S5 marked in red).