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Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
@TheStudyofWar
May 9 • 4 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Israel and Hamas said separately on May 8 that ceasefire negotiations are stalled after new talks in Cairo.

Israeli forces continued a limited operation targeting Hamas fighters and infrastructure in eastern Rafah on May 8. (1/4)
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2/ The IDF confirmed that it intercepted an “aerial target” approaching Israel from the east after Iranian-backed militias in Iraq claimed a drone attack targeting southern Israel. Image
3/ West Bank: Israeli forces destroyed a new Palestinian fighter group in Qalqilya on May 8.

Southern Lebanon: The IDF struck over 20 Hezbollah targets in Ramiya in southern Lebanon on May 8.
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4/ US CENTCOM reported that the Houthis conducted four attacks targeting maritime shipping on May 6 and 7. isw.pub/IranUpdate0508…
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More from @TheStudyofWar

Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
May 11
NEW: Palestinian militias conducted at least 17 attacks targeting the Israel Defense Forces in Zaytoun on May 10, suggesting that Hamas was able either to preserve or reconstitute military capability in Zaytoun despite IDF operations there. (🧵1/5)Image
2/ The IDF launched a re-clearing operation into Zaytoun in southern Gaza City on May 8, marking the 3rd time that the IDF has conducted a clearing operation there. Hamas infiltrated and began reconstituting itself in the northern Strip after the IDF withdrew in Dec 2023.
3/ Hamas fighters used snipers, rocket-propelled grenades, and mortars in five of the 17 attacks in the Zaytoun area. This high rate of attacks is not consistent with a destroyed military force.
Read 5 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
May 10
Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova claimed that the Moldovan government is engaged in a Nazi-like "genocide" in Moldova — a notable inflection in Kremlin officials' rhetoric about Moldova that is likely meant to set conditions for a Russian effort to secure control over Moldova and not just some of its regions. (1/3)
2/ Moldova's two pro-Russian regions, the autonomous region of Gagauzia and the breakaway republic of Transnistria, are home to large Russian-speaking populations, and the Kremlin's shift from allegations about the persecution of Russian speakers to that of Moldovan speakers indicates that the Kremlin is likely trying to justify future Russian aggression in all of Moldova.
3/ The leaders of the pro-Kremlin Moldovan Victory opposition electoral bloc attended the Victory Day parade in Moscow, further indicating that the Kremlin intends to use these actors to destabilize all of Moldova and attack Moldova's democracy and EU accession process.
Read 4 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
May 10
NEW: Putin relitigated his belief that the West is erasing the Soviet Union's contributions to defeating Nazi Germany during the Second World War during his May 9 Victory Day speech, a grievance that is at the core of Russia's adversarial perceptions of the West. 🧵(1/7)Image
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2/ Putin claimed during the Victory Day parade that "they," referring to the West, are attempting to "distort" the truth about the Second World War and "demolish" the memory of Soviet heroism and sacrifice.
3/ Putin's willingness to repeatedly re-emphasize imagined Western efforts to discount the Soviet Union's contribution in defeating Nazi Germany suggests that Putin wholeheartedly believes that this is a genuine threat to the Soviet Union's legacy, and by extension modern Russia.
Read 7 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
May 9
Russian forces recently made significant tactical gains northwest of Avdiivka and advanced elsewhere west of Avdiivka. (1/3)

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2/ Geolocated footage published on May 8 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced ~4km north of Ocheretyne towards the eastern outskirts of Novooleksandrivka (NW of Avdiivka and Ocheretyne) and that Ukraine does not maintain positions on the NW outskirts of Ocheretyne. Image
3/ Additional geolocated footage published on May 8 indicates that Russian forces advanced to a windbreak south of Solovyove (northwest of Avdiivka) and northwest of Tonenke (west of Avdiivka). isw.pub/UkrWar050824
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Read 6 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
May 9
NEW: Russian forces conducted large-scale missile and drone strikes targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure on the night of May 7 to 8, continuing to exploit Ukraine's degraded air defense umbrella ahead of the arrival of US and Western security assistance at scale. 🧵(1/6)Image
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2/ This is the fifth large-scale Russian missile and drone strike targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure since March 22, 2024, as the Russian military has attempted to exploit degraded Ukrainian air defense capabilities in spring 2024 to collapse Ukraine's energy grid and constrain Ukraine's defense industrial capacity.
3/ Russian forces will likely continue to conduct mass strikes to cause long-term damage to Ukrainian energy infrastructure as degraded Ukrainian air defense capabilities persist until the arrival of US-provided air defense missiles and other Western air defense assets at scale.
Read 6 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
May 8
Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on May 7 but there were no changes to the frontline. (1/5)
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2/ Russian sources claimed on May 6 and 7 that Russian forces continued to advance northwest of Svatove near Kyslivka and Kotlyarivka, although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of these claims.
3/ Russian forces also cont'd offensive operations NE of Kupyansk near Synkivka; NW of Svatove near Pishchane, Berestove, & Stelmakhivka; NW of Kreminna near Nevske; west of Kreminna near Terny & Yampolivka; & south of Kreminna near the Serebryanske forest area & Bilohorivka.
Read 5 tweets

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