Biden making the same error w/r/t Israel that he previously made with Ukraine: trying to micro-manage from a distance somebody else's defensive war by limiting categories of weapons. This error doesn't limit war. This error prolongs war, by denying the ally the means of success.
I often think the Biden foreign policy would produce more success if its architects were less clever. "Give the Ukrainians/Israelis enough that they don't lose, but not enough to win" is an idea to baffle all lesser minds.
The micro-management of Israel's war is one part of a much bigger scheme: an Arab force to police Gaza, reform of the Palestinian Authority, a Saudi-US defense agreement, etc. etc.
Less clever people would have arrived at a simpler plan: fight Hamas until it's beaten.
Biden will seek re-election in November on a foreign policy record that includes the fiasco of the Afghanistan exit, inconclusive wars in Europe and Middle East, no new trade agreements. He needed one clear success. Israel's war could have been it. But no. Too simple.
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There are 2 economic ideas behind the Trump tariffs. One is obviously very stupid. The other is also very stupid, but less obviously so.
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The obviously stupid idea is that America should return to the industrial self-sufficiency of 1913 without regard to cost or value. Americans should manufacture their own athletic shoes and door hinges and plastic tubs, and if that requires a 125% protective tariff ... so be it!
The less obviously stupid idea posits that the true justification for tariffs is not the trade balance, but the capital account. Foreigners are placing too much capital in the US. That flow raises the value of the dollar. US imports become too cheap; US exports too costly.
The Trump administration appears to be actively contemplating an act of Putin-like aggression and annexation against a NATO ally
US treaties are part of the supreme law of the land.
I question whether a presidential directive to the US military to invade and annex the territory of a NATO ally would be a "lawful order."
PS I was thinking of VP Vance's threats against the Danish territory of Greenland, which sounded like a warning of imminent US invasion. But I should have been more specific, since the Trump administration has been threatening US aggression against Canada too.
America's allies are deciding that the F-35 fighter cannot be trusted under a Putin-governed US administration. "[B]y severing maintenance support, shipments of spare parts, and cutting foreign F-35s off from U.S. computer networks, the aircraft would quickly be hobbled. …"
“Without these software updates, F-35s could fly, but would be much more likely to be shot down by enemy air defenses. Also without U.S. maintainers and spare parts, it would be difficult to keep the aircraft flying for long ...." breakingdefense.com/2025/03/no-the…
I've personally heard similar concerns from allied governments about the reliability of US-made naval vessels as well. French / Swedish / South Korean equipment may not be as advanced as American, but potentially more trustworthy than weapons from a Russian-aligned USA.
Such a curious coincidence, that's exactly what Herbert Hoover said on October 25, 1929, the day after the Dow Jones dropped 9% in a single day. millercenter.org/the-presidency… Trump's stock market is down 10% from in less than 30 days. x.com/charliespierin…
Soon after Herbert Hoover deployed his "fundamentals of the economy are sound" line in October 1929, he signed a big tariff increases, started a global trade war, and converted a stock market shock into a worldwide depression.
Here's the full Herbert Hoover quote from October 25, 1929. As you read it, you'll see that Hoover - a highly intelligent and perceptive man - was uneasily aware that the fundamentals were actually coming apart. Hoover signed tariff increases anyway.
A lively industry is growing of talkers/influencers trying to sell the idea that there is some rational patriotic motive to Trump's pro-Putin foreign policy and his costly trade wars. Don't believe them. My latest. theatlantic.com/international/…
Trump-splainers pretend that cozying to Russia as part of a rational strategy to counter China. But no rational US strategy to counter China includes launching a trade war against Australia. Yet that's what Trump just did. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The Trump foreign policy is a compound of pervasive corruption, personal malice, and ideological Putinism. There's no grand strategy to it. theatlantic.com/international/…
In the minds of many, Jews are a problem. They were supposed to be replaced by Christianity, or by Islam, or by nationalism, or by socialism - and yet they keep lingering on, refusing to accept the message that history is done with them and it's time for them to be gone.
In the aftermath of the Holocaust, it's awkward to say directly that Jews should not exist any more. But many people are very ready to say - and even more to hear - that the Holocaust shows that Jews need to improve, be less difficult and particular.
The Jewish memory of the Holocaust is: "You can live in a highly cultured and advanced nation - and yet still your neighbors may turn on you and try to kill you."
Much of the non-Jewish memory is: "Will you people never learn to trust the superior ethics of your many critics?"