Thread by @Doranimated

A weapons embargo on Israel ensures that Biden can’t get either what he says he wants or what we might fairly assume he wants. A thread. 1/ Biden says he wants a hostages-for-prisoners deal/ceasefire. But by pressuring Israel he emboldens Hamas to make unrealistic demands.

2/ Biden says he wants a two-state solution with a “revitalized”Palestinian Authority (PA) in charge of Gaza. But by saving Hamas he ensures it will block Fatah (the ruling party in the PA) from gaining a foothold in Gaza. The policy is stoking a Palestinian civil war.

3/ Biden says he wants to alleviate the humanitarian suffering in the Gaza Strip but by precluding a ceasefire deal and emboldening Hamas, he prolongs the war and therefore the suffering. A speedy Israeli victory is the only pathway to anything approaching normalcy for Gazans.

4/ Biden says he wants to free the hostages (some of whom are Americans) but his strengthening of Hamas’s negotiating hand ensures that Hamas will demand more in return for each hostage — at every step of the way. Some hostages it will hold forever, to maintain leverage.

5/ Biden says he wants to stop the Houthi attacks on commercial shipping, but by emboldening Hamas he emboldens the Houthis.

6/ Biden says he wants to end the Israel-Hezbollah war, but his reduced support for Israel emboldens Hezbollah. It also makes Jerusalem more prone to escalate as a way of deterring — of proving to Nasrallah that diminished U.S. support does not offer him immunity from attacks.

7/ Biden wants Tehran to help prevent a regional war, but by emboldening all elements of the “Resistance Axis,” his policy has the effect of widening the war. For the first time, Iran attacked Israel directly. It changed the rules of the game in its favor, yet paid no price.

8/ Biden says he stands against antisemitism, but by, in effect, accusing Israel of inexcusable brutality against innocent woman and children, he places the authority of his office behind the blood libel of the age.

9/ Biden says he wants normalization between Israel and the Saudis, but by weakening Israel he makes it less attractive as a partner. By elevating the two-state solution he forces Riyadh to emphasize its support. An Arab country can’t be less pro-Palestinian than the U.S.

10/ Finally, Biden calls his support for Israel “ironclad,” but his personalized attacks on PM Netanyahu encourage the opposition to try to bring him down. The policy stokes dissent and discord when promoting unity of purpose against a common enemy should be America’s goal.

“But in war more than in any other subject we must begin by looking at the nature of the whole; for here more than elsewhere the part and whole must always be thought of together.”

—Carl von Clausewitz