Mike Profile picture
Sits in a tank and thinks.
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Oct 2 5 tweets 2 min read
President Biden violates a rule of sound statecraft. “The answer is no,” he said, when asked if he supported an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear sites. “[A]ll seven of us [G7 nations] agree that they have a right to respond but they should respond proportionally,” he added. 1/ Richard Nixon explains succinctly in this clip how, as vice president, he learned from President Eisenhower never to make such a statement.
Sep 19 7 tweets 4 min read
A few thoughts on Operation Grim Beeper.

1) This is one of the most astonishing intelligence operations in history. It is a reworking of the story of the Trojan Horse for the digital age, and it deserves to become nearly as legendary as its iconic predecessor. If we are not utterly astounded, it is because we have seen too many James Bond and Black Mirror movies for our own good.

In real life, operations like this just don’t happen. It is at least four operations in one.

First, the Israelis thoroughly mapped Hezbollah’s supply chain.

Second, they invented a special explosive charge small enough to be inserted inside a handheld device, sophisticated enough to be remotely activated, big enough to do real harm, and yet not so prominent physically or electronically to call attention to itself.

Third, the Israelis turned themselves into a big enough link in Hezbollah’s procurement network to take physical control of the devices and rig them.

Fourth, they activated the charges simultaneously and across a very wide geographic area.

If any one of these sub-operations had been botched, the operation as a whole would have fizzled. Who else in the world could pull off such an imaginative, technically sophisticated and audacious plot? 2) It is the first mass targeted killing in history. Every one of the thousands of persons killed or maimed was selected individually, yet they were hit at the same moment. The great genius of the operation is that the Israelis relied on Hezbollah itself to select their targets for them. I can’t think of another case like this where the attackers just sat back and let the enemy perform a key part of their work for them. If we map the attacked men we map Hezbollah’s org chart, including the blinded Iranian ambassador to Lebanon who is an IRGC officer.
Sep 18 5 tweets 2 min read
The internet of Things Fall Apart. A new wave of explosions in Lebanon has also affected phones, radios and other devices with lithium-ion batteries: household appliances, fingerprint scanners, electronic locks, and more. The explosions today seem to be bigger.
May 18 8 tweets 6 min read
Dramatic. Minister Gantz issues an ultimatum to Netanyahu: develop a strategy designed to achieve six goals by June 8, or he will resign. If this wasn’t directly coordinated with the White House, it seeks to draft off of American policy. Gantz six conditions that the strategic plan must meet:
1. Bring home the hostages.
2. Topple the rule of Hamas, demilitarize the Gaza Strip, and ensure Israeli security control.
3. Establish an American-European-Arab-Palestinian civil administration that will manage civilian affairs in the Gaza Strip and lay the foundation for an alternative in the future that is neither Hamas nor Abbas.
4. Return the Israeli residents of the north to their homes by September 1 and revitalize life in the Western Negev.
5. Promote normalization with Saudi Arabia as part of a comprehensive move that will create an alliance with the free world and the Arab world against Iran.
6. Adopt a general outline regarding reform of the military draft that will result in all Israelis serving the state and contributing to the national effort.
May 9 11 tweets 2 min read
A weapons embargo on Israel ensures that Biden can’t get either what he says he wants or what we might fairly assume he wants. A thread. 1/ Biden says he wants a hostages-for-prisoners deal/ceasefire. But by pressuring Israel he emboldens Hamas to make unrealistic demands. 2/ Biden says he wants a two-state solution with a “revitalized”Palestinian Authority (PA) in charge of Gaza. But by saving Hamas he ensures it will block Fatah (the ruling party in the PA) from gaining a foothold in Gaza. The policy is stoking a Palestinian civil war.
Nov 2, 2022 4 tweets 1 min read
Man, 71, dies of a subdural hematoma after a teen beat him outside NYC pizzeria. | I had a subdural hematoma this summer. It was very unpleasant. I had never heard of this injury before, but once you learn about it, you see it in the news all the time. nypost.com/2022/11/02/man… What is it? A SDH is bleeding between the brain and the skull. There is no place for the blood to go so it presses against the brain. They are much more common in old people than young. Why? Because as you get older, your brain shrinks. There develops between the brain and the