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Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
@TheStudyofWar
May 10 • 2 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and Donetsk City.

Geolocated footage published on May 9 shows that Russian forces advanced into central Umanske (west of Avdiivka) north of Sonyachna Street. (1/2)Image
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2/ Geolocated footage published on May 9 shows that Russian forces have advanced in eastern Krasnohorivka (west of Donetsk City) along Tchaikovsky Street. isw.pub/UkrWar050924

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More from @TheStudyofWar

Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
May 12
NEW: Russian forces are conducting relatively limited offensive operations along the Russian-Ukrainian border in northern Kharkiv Oblast and continued to make tactically significant gains in likely less defended areas. 🧵(1/6)Image
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2/ The reported sizes of the Russian elements committed to these limited operations and of the Russian force grouping deployed along the border in NE Ukraine indicate that Russian forces are not pursuing a large-scale operation to envelop, encircle, or seize Kharkiv City at this time.
3/ Russian forces reportedly launched offensive operations along the Russian-Ukrainian border in northern Kharkiv Oblast before they had completed bringing the Northern Grouping of Forces up to its reported planned end strength and have so far only committed a limited amount of combat power to offensive operations in the area.
Read 6 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
May 11
Russian offensive operations along the Kharkiv international border likely have the strategic objective of drawing and fixing Ukrainian forces to this axis to enable Russian advances in other areas of eastern Ukraine. 🧵(1/4)
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2/ This Russian offensive effort likely aims to stretch Ukraine's limited resources and worsen Ukrainian manpower constraints by forcing Ukraine to respond to ongoing Russian offensive operations across a wider swath of territory in eastern Ukraine.
3/ The Russian military command likely hopes that this strategic effort to draw and fix Ukrainian forces in the Kharkiv direction will weaken the Ukrainian defense in aggregate and allow Russian forces to achieve a breakthrough in any area that becomes the most vulnerable.
Read 4 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
May 11
Russian forces will likely leverage their tactical foothold in northern Kharkiv Oblast in the coming days to intensify offensive operations and pursue the initial phase of an offensive effort likely intended to 1) push back Ukrainian forces from the border with Belgorod Oblast and 2) advance to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City. 🧵(1/4)Image
2/ Russian forces are currently approximately 30 kilometers from the outskirts of Kharkiv City, and a Russian advance to within 20 kilometers of the city would likely allow Russian forces to conduct routine indirect fire against Kharkiv City with tube artillery.
3/ Routine indirect fire, in combination with continued glide bomb and missile strikes, would likely be intended to set conditions for a larger offensive effort against Kharkiv City at a later date.
Read 4 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
May 11
Russian forces have so far launched two limited efforts in the area, one north of Kharkiv City in the direction of Lyptsi and one northeast of Kharkiv City near Vovchansk. 🧵(1/11)
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2/ The Ukrainian MoD reported that Russian armored assault groups of an unspecified size attempted to break through Ukrainian defenses near Vovchansk early in the morning and that fighting continued in the area after Ukrainian forces repelled the Russian assaults.
3/ Russian and Ukrainian sources stated that Russian forces also began infantry-heavy assaults between Strilecha (north of Lyptsi) and Zelene (northeast of Lyptsi) on the night of May 9 to 10.
Read 11 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
May 11
NEW: Russian forces began an offensive operation along the Russian-Ukrainian border in northern Kharkiv Oblast on the morning of May 10 and made tactically significant gains.

This is likely the initial phase of an offensive operation north of Kharkiv City that has limited operational objectives but is meant to achieve the strategic effect of drawing Ukrainian manpower and materiel from other critical sectors of the front in eastern Ukraine. (1/3)Image
2/ The limited efforts that Russian forces are currently conducting do not suggest that Russian forces are immediately pursuing a large-scale sweeping offensive operation to envelop, encircle, and seize Kharkiv City.
3/ ISW continues to assess that Russian forces will likely struggle to seize Kharkiv City should they aim to do so.

Much more on Russia's new offensive in tonight's campaign assessment: isw.pub/UkrWar051024
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Read 4 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
May 11
NEW: Palestinian militias conducted at least 17 attacks targeting the Israel Defense Forces in Zaytoun on May 10, suggesting that Hamas was able either to preserve or reconstitute military capability in Zaytoun despite IDF operations there. (🧵1/5)Image
2/ The IDF launched a re-clearing operation into Zaytoun in southern Gaza City on May 8, marking the 3rd time that the IDF has conducted a clearing operation there. Hamas infiltrated and began reconstituting itself in the northern Strip after the IDF withdrew in Dec 2023.
3/ Hamas fighters used snipers, rocket-propelled grenades, and mortars in five of the 17 attacks in the Zaytoun area. This high rate of attacks is not consistent with a destroyed military force.
Read 5 tweets

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