Thread by @MassDara

Ukrainian officials say attacks on border areas in Kharkiv Oblast have begun. Is this the beginnings of a new front, limited incursion ("sanitary zone"), or harassment? Where does this lead? Threat= capability x intent, so let's consider both below. 👇

https://twitter.com/archer83able/status/1788878878607282435?s=46

Intent: Putin in March said he wanted a "sanitary zone" aka occupied buffer zone inside Kharkiv, in response to shelling or cross border raids from groups like RDK. /2 apnews.com/article/russia…

Intent: a few weeks ago, the MOD elevated the Russian group of forces from “Border Protection” to Operational Group North – making it equivalent to the other Operational Groups of Forces. /3

Within the last week, Gen Lapin was appointed the newly formed Operational Group North. (Lapin commanded the initial Group Center in the 2022 invasion) /4

https://x.com/RALee85/status/1788651918132199587

Ukrainian officials have been anticipating an attack on Kharkiv/Sumy for some time. /5 bbc.com/news/articles/…

Capability: I've said previously that for Russia to invade the entire oblast, I think 75,000-100,000 personnel is ballpark and vehicles , which isn't in their grasp right now, nor do they have means to occupy a large city like Kharkiv. /5

What is required to establish a sanitary zone of ~30KM across Kharkiv oblast? For personnel requirements close to the border I would estimate around two combined arms armies worth, perhaps 30,000-40,000 personnel over time and associated armored vehicles. /6

Early reports (take with grain of salt) say the Air Force and UAVs are working first with infantry assaults. Operationally appropriate early phase decision, or lack of available armor? to be determined. /7

https://x.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1788853704541569024

Next few days, important to watch for increased VKS/UAV/FPV activity to map out and engage UAF defenses, continued shelling. In a worst case scenario, it creates favorable conditions for armored vehicle commitment. /8

Or, Russia is light on equipment for this effort, and attacks with infantry and light vehicles. Either way, if they attack Kharkiv, it draws Russia's reserves that otherwise could have been secondary reserves for their main objective, Donetsk, or elsewhere. /9

Where would these Russian forces come from? As far as I can tell, there haven't been major reallocations from forces in occupied Ukraine, which implies this group would be created from reserves (inexperienced) or units that were withdrawn/regenerating (mixed) /10.

To know Russia’s goals here, it is key to locate units and resources allocated in border areas in Russia: where and how many are staged- or if there are not enough staged. Either way, Ukrainian forces are now being stretched a bit to cope with this at a difficult time./end