🧵A very brief OSINT methods thread to share how I found the location of a Burmese junta camp that was captured by the resistance today, it's a method I've used a lot for more obscure unnamed places that would be nearly impossible to find otherwise.
Today news came out from a reputable local media source of a junta camp that was captured in Southern Myanmar, normally news in Burma is reported with the name of a nearby village or at least the township. But not here, only that it was in the KNLA's 4th Brigade 11th Battalion.
The KNLA's 4th Brigade operates in Tanintharyi Region, and google searching for info about the 11th battalion shows it is mainly active in Bokpyin township
But of course, finding one tower with a loose lead of maybe a township is going to be tricky.bnionline.net/en/news/killin…
After finding the facebook page of one of the resistance units involved in the attack, you can see that they put out a battle report of the attack (which is standard), where the base is named the Hill 1020 Outpost. This is where a little trick comes in very handy.
Often, when there is a battle or an outpost in an otherwise unnamed and unnotable area, it is often named after the spot height listed on the hill on old topographic maps. This has been the case in most wars since the Korean War, including in Burma.
In Myanmar it can be tricky, because depending on the topographic map it can either be in meters or feet. I generally assume meters. And for this purpose I have written a Google Earth Engine script where you can specify the target spot height and see that 'contour' band mapped.
(for anyone who wants to copy my work, here is a link to the code, but you need to activate Earth Engine on your Google Account first
To interpret these maps, you want to ignore the donut bands (since spot heights are generally put at the tops of peaks) and instead focus on where the terrain only just pokes into the specified height and looks like a small dot - some indicated with blue arrow here.
In this case, after loading the code in, an elevation of 1020m seems too high for the Bokpyin area, though I did first check a few of the most obvious looking peaks in that elevation range in the wider region since I wasnt sure of the township. To no luck.
So, I guess the height is in feet. Load in the feet values instead and there are quiet a few interesting places to check. Following the level of infrastructure in the drone picture, i assumed it was near the main highway through the township and started looking around there.
By the way, if you want to follow this method without using Earth Engine code, you can draw a polygon in Google Earth and set the elevation as absolute. That does a similar thing, but due to the curvature of the earth is only suitable for relatively small areas - so narrow down.
Anyway, with feet in mind, i started looking at hills of the right height overlooking or nearby the highway in Bokpyin township - and the 2nd or 3rd I checked had a similar looking tower. But since it's probably a pretty standard design, I wanted to make sure.
Using @planet's NICFI progam (), i have another GEE code that loads in composite planet imagery over time-periods. Comparing this hill from the pre-coup and recent imagery shows that there has been significant clearing consistent with the drone imagery. planet.com/nicfi/
@planet And luckily, for absolute confirmation - beyond what you can often get - Google Earth has recently updated their imagery from that area for the first time since the coup, showing how the hill look in March 2024, and confirming it is exactly the same hill that was captured.
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I've started reading Our Enemies Will Vanish, a masterful book on the Ukraine War by @yarotrof. Highly recommend it. It contains heaps of tidbits and insights that even someone who followed the invasion closely (i'll count myself) had no idea of.
I'll share some threaded here.
@yarotrof (get your hands on the book if you possible can, the tidbits here are just the tip of the iceberg, truly recommend reading the whole thing).
Firstly, this account of a meeting between Bill Burns and Putin months before the invasion where Putin cited US' impotence post Afghanistan
@yarotrof And that Ukraine's military preparations on the heel of US intel warnings were so secret that even Washington had no idea about them (to prevent info going from GUR > DC > Kyiv > Russian Fifth Column)
I was wanting to check if this IDF graphic was an approximation or a measured/to-scale diagram, so by tracing the various video walkthroughs, I was able to make my own NOT TO SCALE map, suggesting it was a pretty accurate representation but missing some 'branches' explored since.
The most notable difference is a partially-blocked tunnel leading beyond where the walkthroughts turn left to go towards the spiral staircase. A seperate IDF video showed a 3rd entrance around 125m beyond that intersection, so I've assumed that's where it leads.
I've done my best geolocating that entrance by looking for a wide-ish street (with no road markings), that curves slightly to the right & goes downhill, and that has two visible small but distinct orange-roofed areas, along with some vegetation in a front yard. Decent match.
In Loikaw, a State capital in Myanmar, the district court has been overrun and destroyed by the KNDF and its armed resistance. After capturing the university on Wednesday, they are now barely 1km from the state capital building.
The attack on Loikaw comes simultaneously as an attack on Moebye, another major town nearby where ~6 Junta posts have been captured. The KNDF has been spending the last week systematically eradicating junta presence from between Moebye and Loikaw, to stage for these attacks.
The KNDF has now captured the Kayan Tharyar Crossroads junta outpost on the highway linking Loikaw & Shan State. The only outpost in the Loikaw surrounds still under junta control is the Kone Thar outpost which appears to have not been attacked since it's on an evacuation route.
I have the utmost respect for Forensic Architecture, but when the analysis conducted is only valid in the scenario of one hypothesis and is invalid had the circumstances of another hypothesis happened, then it's not really useful in determining between them.
One quick look at the video of the missile that practically everyone has seen (and I'm sure FA has too) shows that this projectile wasn't on a clean parabolic trajectory and appears to be changing direction mid-air.
This is why it can be known as the 'Iron-Dome shield', each missile battery can defend against ~150km2 and targets the rockets towards the end of their trajectory, after the fuel has burnt off and the trajectory is more predictable.
You can see this in this video, where the rockets are struck after reaching the peak of their trajectory and at the beginning of the descent-phase
First, I want to preface this analysis by pointing out that this account has been spreading disinformation and denialism about Ukraine for over a year. They have never acted in good faith, but for the people sharing his crap without knowing this I'll refute it at face value.
The argument is immediately refutable since the same camera did film the explosion at the hospital, in footage youve probably seen, an hour earlier, at 6:59pm.
The time stamp in the video he shared is an hour later, at 7:59pm.