The Northern Corps created a few days ago with +/- a 50k army has launched attacks aiming to take Voltchansk and Lyptsi.
Lets look together videos, maps, claims and hypothesis on this new Russian offensive.
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First, where is this front located ?
Kharkiv is the seconth city of Ukraine, located ~35km from Russia. The frontline lies around the Siversky Donets river. This area was liberated by Ukraine on september 2022.
On this map by @Pouletvolant3 we can see that Russia has taken some villages in the grey zone. These may have been abandoned by Ukrainian territorial defense forces.
The first videos reaching us are somewhat reminiscent of the first months of the war of movement in 2022, but in a more cautious way. The infantry advances largely on foot, sometimes supported by BMPs which are targeted by Ukrainian suicide drones.
Thus, we have already some Russian losses on both sides of the border with Ukraine. Interestingly, it seems Ukrainian armed forces retreated from the border towns to prepared position a few kilometers away.
On the following videos, you will see Russian BMP's and infantry being targeted by drones. On the second one, there is a Ukrainian trench network abandonned by Ukraine.
Based on information shared by @Deepstate_UA and @UAControlMap, we can assure the following billages are under Russian controll : Strilecha, Krasne, Pyl'na, Morokhovets' and Oliinykove.
Borysivka is probably under Russian controll, no information.
It seems Russian forces are now attacking Hlyboke and Luk'yantsi where Ukrainian forces may have retreated.
42nd mecanized brigade is defending this direction, main Ukrainian defensive line is located east and west of Lyptsi.
On the Volchansk direction, the Russian army penetrated from several directions into the forest towards the small city.
The villages of Ohirtseve and Hatyshche are under their control, that of Pletenivka probably also.
Interesting to observe how the Russian infantry marches without being disturbed by Ukrainian artillery and drones.
For the moment, the Russian advance which began 3 days ago is not a breakthrough. Maximum penetration is 5km.
Why ?
The border between Ukraine and Russia is very long. They could've attacked on Chostka, Sumy or Okhtyrka direction but they choose Kharkiv.
3 main ideas : putting pressure on the city, extending the front, threatening Kupiansk.
Hypothesis 1 :
False attack north of Kharkiv, real attack betwee, Kupiansk and Tchouhouiv : enlarge the front and take kupiansk from the north, then secure all Siverski Donets banks.
Hypothesis 2 :
Secure ~10km buffer zone and dig positions : then wait to keep Ukrainian units busy here. Putting Kharkiv back under GRAD fire.
This is what we have for now.
Hypothesis 3 : do both
Secure northern Kharkiv oblast to force Ukrainian forces to deploy brigades there : threatening Kharkiv, Chuhuiv and Kupiansk.
What i think ?
There is one main defensive line for Ukraine. With a 50k force, Russia can't take Kharkiv, however, they will divert Ukrainian forces from Donetsk oblast and will be bombing Kharkiv.
So Kharkiv offensive is a double trap :
If Ukraine divert too much forces from Donbass, Russian summer offensive will breakthrough.
If Ukraine does not defend Kharkiv direction, Russian army will advance and capture large portion of terrain, even threatening Kupiansk.
So now, i will follow daily the situation on my account and on @atummundi's one (think tank account you should follow)
The situation is bad for Ukraine they will need more troops to defend this new front.
Finally, as always do not believe all these maps on Twitter : that's only speculation and false information.
There are some reliable mappers doing incredible work: for example, no one, even deepstate said they entered Vovtchansk.
18/18
And of course i can add this firm image : a lot of Russian bombing. 3 Bridges on Siversky Donets river destroyed including the big one in Stary Saltiv.
Confirmation of Russian presence in Hatyshche north of Vovtchansk.
Well now they may have entered the city according to Ukrainian officials.
It's been one month #Russia 🇷🇺 broke through the frontline in Dobropilla, central part of Donetsk oblast. After few days, this breakthrough was stopped and pushed back 🇺🇦.
Since then, no information has filtered :
🧵THREAD🧵1/17 ⬇️
Since weeks, you can see multiple maps of encirclements, of double encirclement and imaginary offensives. However, no one really knows what is happening there, perhaps even both sides command.
Both armies are positionned behind its ennemy, this is why it is impossible to map it.
After the Dobropilla breakthrough, I posted worrying threads. Indeed, Russia pushed during weeks hundreds of soldiers behind the lines.
However, the lack of exploitation and successful counter-offensive managed to push back part of russian advance in the area.
La traite arabo-musulmane a réduit 17 millions d'Africains en esclavage⚔️sur 13 siècles, soit plus que les 12 millions de la traite atlantique, sur 4 siècles.
20 faits et anecdotes oubliées de l'Histoire de la colonisation et de l'esclavage ⬇️
🧵THREAD🧵1/20 ⬇️
Le Portugal 🇵🇹 a construit un Empire immense avec seulement 1 million d'habitants, quelques années après la libération de l'occupation musulmane
La plupart du temps, seulement quelques centaines de soldats régnaient sur la moitié du globe principalement via des alliances locales
On évoque souvent les Européens comme seuls responsables de la traite transatlantique. Pourtant, ce sont souvent des peuples africains qui livraient des esclaves aux européens :
Dahomey, Ashanti, Kongo, Peuls... Les Européens se contentaient de les récupérer sur les côtes.
En Pologne 🇵🇱 et en Roumanie 🇷🇴, des sirènes anti-aériennes ont été déclenchées face à la menace de frappes russes.
Russie 🇷🇺 et Biélorussie 🇧🇾 conduisent des exercices militaires à la frontière de l'UE.
🧵THREAD🧵1/9⬇️
C'est une image inédite, des alertes aériennes retentissent dans l'est de la Pologne, demandant aux habitants de se cacher chez eux après que des drones russes survolant l'ouest ukrainien s'approchent de la frontière et menacent d'y pénétrer de nouveau.
Depuis le début de la guerre, des dizaines de drones et missiles russes sont tombés sur le territoire de l'Union Européenne/OTAN, volontairement ou non.
Il y a 3 jours, entre 10 et 16 drones russes sont entrés volontairement en Pologne, provoquant une réaction inédite de l'OTAN.
Verdun 1916 - Donbass 2025, le retour des tranchées
Sur le front ukrainien 🇺🇦, des dizaines de milliers de tranchées ont été creusées par les deux armées pour se protéger.
L'armée ukrainienne a mis au point deux imposantes lignes de défense à 20km du front.
🧵THREAD🧵1/19⬇️
Depuis 6 mois, l'armée ukrainienne prépare deux lignes de défense, que nous avons surnommé "Nouvelles Lignes du Donbass".
Visibles depuis l'espace, elles sont constitués d'une série d'obstacles anti véhicules et anti infanterie et de positions camouflée à l'arrière.
Les fortifications créées ont largement contribué à ralentir la progression d'un camp ou de l'autre.
Le terrain est plat, découvert et avec l'essor des drones, impossible de creuser des tranchées au milieu des champs. Ce sont donc ces grandes haies qui servent de positions.
A Pokrovsk et Soumy, l'armée russe 🇷🇺 stoppée par les contre-attaques ukrainiennes 🇺🇦 change de stratégie.
Echouant à exploiter la percée de Dobropilla, l'armée russe pousse à Lyman et Pokrovsk'e, alors qu'elle est encore loin de ses objectifs de 2025.
🧵THREAD🧵1/25 ⬇️
Si 2023 fut une année à deux objectifs, mettre un terme aux perspectives offensives ukrainiennes et sécuriser le nord de Donetsk avec Bakhmout, 2024 fut l'année de la dernière bataille de Donetsk, permettant de repousser les ukrainiens loin de la ville, jusqu'à Pokrovsk.
Pour 2025, même si nous ne pouvons pas le confirmer avec certitudes, le principal objectif russe était de préparer le terrain pour la "libération" finale de l'oblast de Donetsk, "prévue" pour 2026
Pour cela, il faut sécuriser Pokrovsk et Kostiantynivka, les deux principaux buts.
From Poland 🇵🇱 to Moldova 🇲🇩 stretches the longest Ukrainian 🇺🇦 defensive line, 2 800 km !
The biggest fortification system is in the east, in Donbass, but we can also find massive fortifications near Belarus, Kharkiv, or Odessa.
Let's analyse what is new :
🧵THREAD🧵1/25 ⬇️
Since 2014, ukrainian forces have been fortifying the frontline, primarly with trenches, dugouts and bunkers.
In 2022, 2023 and 2024, they also added new defensive lines everywhere, with anti-tank ditches and open-air trenches, which are now obsolete. 2025 saw a new program :
Previous trenches and fortifications were obsolete, no dugouts, no firing positions, no cover against drones and too large for small infantry teams.
Thus, since the first months of 2025, we have seen a new strategy of trench and fortification building.