Clément Molin Profile picture
May 12, 2024 21 tweets 8 min read Read on X
#Kharkiv : a new front opened by Russia 🇷🇺

The Northern Corps created a few days ago with +/- a 50k army has launched attacks aiming to take Voltchansk and Lyptsi.

Lets look together videos, maps, claims and hypothesis on this new Russian offensive.

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First, where is this front located ?

Kharkiv is the seconth city of Ukraine, located ~35km from Russia. The frontline lies around the Siversky Donets river. This area was liberated by Ukraine on september 2022. Image
On this map by @Pouletvolant3 we can see that Russia has taken some villages in the grey zone. These may have been abandoned by Ukrainian territorial defense forces. Image
The first videos reaching us are somewhat reminiscent of the first months of the war of movement in 2022, but in a more cautious way. The infantry advances largely on foot, sometimes supported by BMPs which are targeted by Ukrainian suicide drones.
Thus, we have already some Russian losses on both sides of the border with Ukraine. Interestingly, it seems Ukrainian armed forces retreated from the border towns to prepared position a few kilometers away. Image
On the following videos, you will see Russian BMP's and infantry being targeted by drones. On the second one, there is a Ukrainian trench network abandonned by Ukraine.

Based on information shared by @Deepstate_UA and @UAControlMap, we can assure the following billages are under Russian controll : Strilecha, Krasne, Pyl'na, Morokhovets' and Oliinykove.

Borysivka is probably under Russian controll, no information. Image
It seems Russian forces are now attacking Hlyboke and Luk'yantsi where Ukrainian forces may have retreated.
42nd mecanized brigade is defending this direction, main Ukrainian defensive line is located east and west of Lyptsi. Image
On the Volchansk direction, the Russian army penetrated from several directions into the forest towards the small city.
The villages of Ohirtseve and Hatyshche are under their control, that of Pletenivka probably also. Image
Interesting to observe how the Russian infantry marches without being disturbed by Ukrainian artillery and drones.

For the moment, the Russian advance which began 3 days ago is not a breakthrough. Maximum penetration is 5km.
Why ?

The border between Ukraine and Russia is very long. They could've attacked on Chostka, Sumy or Okhtyrka direction but they choose Kharkiv.

3 main ideas : putting pressure on the city, extending the front, threatening Kupiansk. Image
Hypothesis 1 :

False attack north of Kharkiv, real attack betwee, Kupiansk and Tchouhouiv : enlarge the front and take kupiansk from the north, then secure all Siverski Donets banks. Image
Hypothesis 2 :

Secure ~10km buffer zone and dig positions : then wait to keep Ukrainian units busy here. Putting Kharkiv back under GRAD fire.

This is what we have for now. Image
Hypothesis 3 : do both

Secure northern Kharkiv oblast to force Ukrainian forces to deploy brigades there : threatening Kharkiv, Chuhuiv and Kupiansk. Image
What i think ?

There is one main defensive line for Ukraine. With a 50k force, Russia can't take Kharkiv, however, they will divert Ukrainian forces from Donetsk oblast and will be bombing Kharkiv. Image
So Kharkiv offensive is a double trap :

If Ukraine divert too much forces from Donbass, Russian summer offensive will breakthrough.

If Ukraine does not defend Kharkiv direction, Russian army will advance and capture large portion of terrain, even threatening Kupiansk.
So now, i will follow daily the situation on my account and on @atummundi's one (think tank account you should follow)

The situation is bad for Ukraine they will need more troops to defend this new front. Image
Finally, as always do not believe all these maps on Twitter : that's only speculation and false information.

There are some reliable mappers doing incredible work: for example, no one, even deepstate said they entered Vovtchansk.

18/18 Image
And of course i can add this firm image : a lot of Russian bombing. 3 Bridges on Siversky Donets river destroyed including the big one in Stary Saltiv.


Image
Image
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Image
Confirmation of Russian presence in Hatyshche north of Vovtchansk.


Well now they may have entered the city according to Ukrainian officials.

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More from @clement_molin

Jul 10
700 new russian airstrikes since june 11 between Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka showing that Russia 🇷🇺 is willing to push to the west.

In Sumy, I even mapped 1 700 russian airstrikes on ukrainian 🇺🇦 held towns, treelines and forests.

🧵THREAD🧵1/12 ⬇️Image
If you follow me, you may remember my previous thread on russian airstrikes campaign.

Visible from space, I mapped on june 11th around 1 000 russian airstrikes in the road between Pokrovsk and Kostinaytnivka. Image
Now that we have again clear satellite images, I did it again. It shows more than 700 new airstrikes in a month in this small perimeter of the frontline.

New airstrikes are showing that Russia is willing to push to the northwest and west directions, to encircle Pokrovsk. Image
Read 12 tweets
Jul 10
La Russie 🇷🇺 à l'offensive de l'Arménie 🇦🇲

Après avoir sécurisé la Géorgie 🇬🇪 dans son giron, Moscou tente d'interférer contre Erevan.

Moscou "renforcerai" sa base à Gyumri, aide à la préparation d'un coup d'Etat et soutien l'opposition.

🧵THREAD🧵1/15 ⬇️ Image
L'agenda politique arménien est plus que tendu ces derniers jours.

Alors que Nikol Pashinian affiche un rapprochement sans précédent avec les anciens ennemis azerbaïdjanais et turcs pour signer un accord de paix et l'ouverture du corridor de Zanguezour, Moscou tente d'interférer Image
En ce moment même, Nikol Pashinian négocie à Abu Dhabi aux Emirats Arabes Unis avec Ilham Alyiev, président azerbaïdjanais.

Les deux hommes espèrent la signature d'un accord de paix historique. Image
Read 16 tweets
Jul 9
Vu du ciel, les immenses lignes de fortifications ukrainiennes 🇺🇦, qui pourraient servir de ligne de démarcation d'un cessez le feu ou de ligne d'arrêt.

Les images satellites Sentinel-2 du jour donnent un aperçu de cette ligne de défense, de Kharkiv à Pokrovsk.

🧵THREAD🧵1/17⬇️ Image
Des deux côtés de Kharkiv, 3 fossés anti-cgars qui viennent renforcer des fossés existants. Néanmoins, la ligne reste assez loin de la frontière. Image
Zoom à l'ouest de Kharkiv, trois rangées de fossés renforcent un fossé existant, sans oublier les dents de dragons et barbelés, existants et nouveaux. Image
Read 17 tweets
Jul 9
Comment les interventions militaires des Émirats Arabes Unis 🇦🇪 au #Yémen 🇾🇪, en #Libye 🇱🇾 et au #Soudan 🇸🇩 ont semé le chaos, divisé ces pays… et abouti à des échecs cuisants.

Quand les Emirats créent artificiellement de nouveaux Etats - Récit.

🧵THREAD🧵1/15⬇️ Image
Depuis les années 2010, les Émirats se sont posés en acteur militaire majeur du monde arabe. Officiellement : lutter contre l’islamisme et le terrorisme. Officieusement : imposer leur vision autoritaire de l’ordre régional, notamment en opposition à l'Iran et la Turquie. Image
Dans chaque pays ciblé – Yémen, Libye, Soudan – les Émirats ont soutenu des milices, des chefs de guerre ou des généraux, souvent au mépris de l’unité nationale ou de la paix.

La conséquence ? 3 nouveaux Etats
Read 17 tweets
Jul 8
Ukrainian 🇺🇦 forces are building two massive defensive lines 20km from the frontline

Thousands of small positions and difficult-to-penetrate obstacles have been erected. A second line is being prepared - UPDATE.

🧵THREAD🧵1/23 ⬇️Image
West of Pokrovsk, the reader will notice that anti-tank ditches, obstacles, and trenches are increasingly numerous in the open countryside.

After fortifying the immediate rear of Pokrovsk, the Ukrainian army began its "New Donbass Line." Image
I already mapped and analysed part of this New Donbass line. It is stretching from Zaporizhia oblast to Kharkiv.

Now, a new ditch is being completed a few kilometers east, especially behind main Donbass cities. Image
Read 23 tweets
Jul 7
La grande ligne de défense européenne 🇫🇮🇪🇪🇱🇻🇱🇹🇵🇱🇺🇦

Aux frontières russes 🇷🇺 et biélorusses 🇧🇾, plusieurs pays européens s'activent à créer des fortifications.

Mais celles-ci sont-elles véritablement utiles ? Avons nous des images satellites de ces défenses ?

🧵THREAD🧵1/20 ⬇️Image
Les officiels européens défilent sur une minuscule portion du nouveau système de défense polonais à la frontière de l'oblast russe de Kaliningrad.

Pourtant côté ukrainien, ces défenses peuvent faire rire. Image
De la Finlande (et même dans une moindre mesure la Norvège), jusqu'à la Pologne, le flanc oriental de l'OTAN et de l'Union Européenne se prépare à une éventuelle invasion russe.

Tous ont décidé la construction de fortifications défensives. Image
Read 21 tweets

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