Thread by @MassDara

Shoigu is out as Defense Minister, moving into head of Security Council. Andrei Belousov , an economist, is taking over. My quick thoughts on what it means for MOD, and what to look about changes possible in the near term. /1

First, Shoigu is moving into a respectable and powerful position because he is loyal, and he and Putin are friends. it’s a signal that Putin listens to chatter and understands that Shoigu needed to leave the MOD, where he was just tolerated by his ministry and other agencies. /2

Belousov has no military experience at all or background in the military. He’s an economist. This will raise questions within the military who will fear a repeat of serdyukov. So I anticipate some unformed officer favorites appointed to leadership positions to balance this. /3

Normally I’d say that Gerasimov will be replaced soon, but he is the overall commander of the war. I still think he will be replaced, which is typical. Peskov said he will stay, no decisions to change have been made “yet”. So an (unintentional) indicator of change 😅

Is Belousov a multi-year defense minister? My gut reaction (that I will keep updating ), I would say no. This looks like a move shorter in duration that will be followed by house cleaning: of deputy defense ministers, some organizational changes, and auditing. / 5

I have to note that a person with this kind of financial background and with *no organizational ties or priors* is helpful for making major changes to the Defense economy to reconstitute the force post war. /6

With Shoigu out, some individual fortunes can improve for favorites like Dyumin, Surovikin, Teplinskiy. maybe a few other popular op group commanders too. with Shoigu out, they can be elevated or brought back into the defense fold somewhere . /6

In sum— Shoigu gets a respectable way out, the new defense minister will probably make organizational changes, too soon to tell if he’s a placeholder for a post war minister, and watch Gerasimov. /7

I’ll write a post-mortem on his 12 years of leadership soon for for now: 👇 / end