Thread by @Mylovanov

FT, Bloomberg, others write about Russian plotting attacks in Europe.

This is a list of 11 recent incidents released to public, proven or suspected of Russian connection. Russia is not plotting but already executing attacks on Europe.

Perhaps, it is time to wake up? 1/

1. An arson attack in March 2024 on an east London warehouse containing aid shipments for Ukraine. Two men charged have been accused of working for the Russian government. /

2. An explosion in April 2024 at a BAE Systems factory in South Wales that manufactures arms sent to Ukraine. /

3. A fire in April 2024 at a General Dynamics plant in Pennsylvania that makes artillery shells being sent to Ukraine. /

4. A fire in May 2024 at a factory near Berlin run by a firm making air defense systems supplied to Ukraine. /

5. Two German-Russian men arrested in Bavaria in April 2024 for allegedly plotting to attack military and logistics sites in Germany on behalf of Russia. /

6. A series of train derailments in Sweden in 2024 that are being investigated as potential acts of state-backed sabotage. /

7. Alleged Russian attempts to destroy signaling systems on Czech railways, as reported by the Czech transport minister. /

8. Attacks on the Estonian interior minister's car and those of journalists in February 2024, perpetrated by Russian intelligence operatives according to Estonian security services./

9. Russian cyberattack on members of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's party, carried out by APT28, a group controlled by Russia's military intelligence. /

10. Russian jamming that has impacted hundreds of civilian flights in Europe, especially over the Baltic States, Poland and Scandinavia./

11. Alleged Russian cyber attacks on Britain's Electoral Commission and the Royal Family's website. /

In addition, I have been briefed on another 3 attacks, two cyber warfare, and one intelligence mapping, that are not public /

Why does Russia do it? What is the point of jamming GPS for flights over Baltics?

The are testing their capabilities and look for vulnerabilities in NATO defenses. They want to know what works, the strengths and weaknesses of the defense against hybrid operations /

I quote FT: "As ever with Russia, it’s wise not to look for a single explanation of why they are doing anything. There’s always a combination of things going on,” said Giles. /
ft.com/content/c88509…

“These pinprick attacks we’ve seen so far are of course to create disruption, but they can also be used for disinformation. And then there is what Russia learns from these attacks if they want to immobilise Europe for real . . . They’re practice runs.” /X

There is a new piece by the Economist that lists a number of additional incidents /

economist.com/europe/2024/05…

Unexplained explosions at Bulgarian arms factories in 2015, 2020, and 2022.

(I have heard of them from Ukrainian agencies who were convinced that it was Russian sabotage) /

According to a Google Mandiant report in April 2024, Russian-linked "hacktivist" groups claimed to have manipulated control systems for water utilities in America and Poland, and what they thought was a hydroelectric facility in France. /

In March 2024, an ally of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny was attacked with a hammer in Vilnius, Lithuania.

I have also heard of a massive non-fatal poisoning of tens or hundreds of Russian opposition activists in Berlin last year /

Multiple symbolic and false flag operations attacks on monuments /X