Thread by @dszeligowski

THE DEAL THAT NEVER WAS – PART 2/2

I have previously gone over why there was no chance of a Ukrainian-Russian deal in spring 2022. Today, I will try to answer some of your questions about the "Polish perspective". This is how and why we know what we know

Small retrospective first. A month before the Russian invasion, President Zelensky with his top advisors arrive in Wisła, a mountain residence of Poland's President. War looms on the horizon. Both sides are setting up an informal channel of communication in case of emergency

Jakub Kumoch (JK), advisor to Pres. Duda, and Andriy Sybiha, advisor to Pres. Zelensky, will be the ones to carry the weight. They know each other well, having both served as ambassadors to Turkey at the same time. Now they both advise heads of states

President Duda heads to Kyiv on Feb23 for an urgent visit. Zelensky tells him that war will break out the next day, and that Ukraine will fight back. Zelensky calls Duda at 5:48am. That period, they will both consult each other by phone every single day

https://twitter.com/AndrzejDuda/status/1496725192642646021

Feb25, Zelensky asks Duda to help form a coalition of countries that would put pressure on Russia to sit down and negotiate with Ukraine. Initially, Ukraine refuses to hold the talks in Belarus, but eventually agrees and asks Poland to help transport their delegation there

The Ukrainian delegation would fly to Belarus for a few rounds of talks on board of Polish Black Hawk helicopter, protected by Polish SOF, and accompanied by the then head of the Chancellery of the Polish Prime Minister

Feb28, we quickly understand that the talks are just a facade. JK would later say in an interview: "a barrack a few metres by a few metres, three of us and the Ukrainian delegation (...) we immediately learn that the Russian delegation has no mandate, keeps repeating slogans"

In Belarus, the Russians throw accusations around – that there are US troops in Ukraine, that Ukraine is handing out weapons to civilians, and so on. They demand Ukraine’s surrender, threaten members of the Ukrainian delegation. Russia does not take these talks seriously

Belarus is getting a lot of attention, but real events are happening elsewhere. Early March 2022, Roman Abramovich arrives in Poland on board of a Turkish government plane. One of the Ukrainian negotiators takes this photo as "an insurance policy" for Abramovich, who goes to Kyiv

Ukraine wants Abramovich to act as an intermediary because they think the Russian delegation does not have direct access to Putin. So Abramovich goes to Kyiv, accompanied by JK and the then Polish deputy foreign minister. Abramovich would later carry notes from Zelensky to Putin

Abramovich heads back to Turkey, JK is on the same plane. As the former Polish ambassador to Turkey, he has got plenty of contacts there. He is going to meet with Erdogan's key advisor, Ibrahim Kalin. Poland is worried Turkey will pressure Ukraine into an unconditional ceasefire

Zelensky himself has asked Poland to prevent a ceasefire with Russian territorial gains being imposed on Ukraine. JK would remain laconic: "I requested once to speak with Zelensky and ask a question about my missions in Turkey. I asked a question and did receive an answer"

March 10, foreign ministers of Ukraine and Russia, Dmytro Kuleba and Sergey Lavrov, meet in Turkey. On his way to Kyiv, Kuleba stops in Warsaw to brief President Duda and his advisors in the "silence room" of the Polish National Security Bureau

JK would later shed some light on Kuleba-Lavrov talks: “a fiasco (…) Lavrov came to the talks completely unprepared, in a belligerent rather than diplomatic mood, without any intention of a ceasefire”. March 16, Polish President Duda himself heads to Turkey and meets Erdogan

Meanwhile, Ukraine informs Poland about the draft "peace treaty" put forward by Russia, and then passes the document on to Poland for our assessment. I am now in a position to say that I was one of the Polish analysts who carried out this study

https://twitter.com/dszeligowski/status/1785771531458462188

At the extraordinary NATO summit in March 2022, President Andrzej Duda has the draft treaty with him. He waves the document in front of the leaders of the Alliance and asks if they would sign up to the terms proposed by Russia. There is a silence in the hall

Poland holds a video conference with the Ukrainian delegation to discuss the Russian draft. It is clear that Ukraine is not going to give up on the principle of border inviolability, and that any concessions regarding neutrality are to be conditional on security guarantees

But the Russians are not going to back down on any of the *key* issues, so the talks stall. March 31, JK says publicly: Poland will defend Ukraine from being forced into agreements that are contrary to its interests, a ceasefire must include the withdrawal of the Russian troops

After the liberation of Bucha and the discovery of the Russian crimes, further talks with Russia are pointless. Zelensky has to face up to Ukrainian public opinion. But the Ukrainian delegation keeps the discussion going to see if the Russian position would change. It will not

There was actually little doubt that moment that the talks stalled. JK would later say: "The Americans did not believe [in a deal], the Turks also downplayed it, the British - like Poland - took the position that the negotiating criteria had to be set by Ukraine itself"

Boris Johnson stops in Warsaw before visiting Kyiv Apr9, and then Duda goes to Kyiv Apr13. Referring to these discussions, JK would later admit: “no one was serious about the talks in Turkey any more (…) nobody took that treaty with too much seriousness”
gov.uk/government/new…

Two days later, Russia gives Ukraine another version of the treaty. This one has a note on the front page saying that Putin received the document on Apr15. It includes renewed Russian demands on Ukrainian domestic policy, on which the Russian delegation previously conceded

It confirms what we already knew: talks with the Russian delegation are pointless because they do not have the authority to negotiate anything. Putin personally rejects the talks and chooses war. Abramovich still makes a last-minute visit to Kyiv, but it does not yield results

This is, of course, just part of the story on the Polish contribution to the Ukrainian-Russian negotiations in spring 2022. Most of the details are still not publicly available, but you can easily find what I have just shared with you in the Polish media now

Please read this thread as an addendum to the previous one on the substance of the Ukrainian-Russian negotiations. As you can see, Poland has its own story to tell, which goes against the common belief that an agreement with Russia was at hand

https://twitter.com/dszeligowski/status/1785771531458462188