🧵THE DEAL THAT NEVER WAS

How Russia sought to subjugate Ukraine, the West rightly refused to play the ball, and Putin became personally responsible for the failure of the Ukrainian-Russian talks Recent days have seen a renewed debate over the Ukrainian-Russian peace talks of spring of 2022. The popular wisdom says that both sides were close to an agreement, but this is simply false. Let's finally unpack it, dyspel the myths and put a stop to the manipulation that abound

🧵 This is already making rounds, so I will try to shed some more light on March/April 2022 Ukraine-Russia talks since the article is still far from the point, and because Poland played a much bigger role than anyone is willing to admit publicly
foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/talks-… You can easily Google this photo. This is just a tip of the iceberg

🧵 Over the past three decades, the transatlantic community has paid much more attention to Russia than to anyone else. Far too much. The world does not revolve around Russia, and we should finally stop acting as if Russia was the centre of the universe Let's start with basic rhetoric. Why is it always NATO that barks at the Russian door, but never Russia barking at the NATO door? Why is it us who failed to build a common European house with Russia, but not Russia who failed to build a common house with us?

🧵 This is precisely the kind of West-centric logic that contributed significantly to Russia's decision to attack Ukraine over and over again 👇

https://twitter.com/ElbridgeColby/status/1768717048102736125

Russia does *not* want a palatable exit. It has been offered quite a few, and has never taken them. First, when the U.S. and Germany told Ukraine to stand down as Russia annexed Crimea. Second, when Ukraine was forced twice into the Minsk Agreements

🧵Gen. Wałerij Załużny został odwołany ze stanowiska głównodowodzącego ukraińskimi siłami zbrojnymi. Zastąpi go gen. Ołeksandr Syrski, który na początku inwazji dowodził obroną Kijowa. Długo odkładana w czasie, w dużej mierze motywowana politycznie decyzja prezydenta Zełenskiego Ekipa Zełenskiego podejrzewa Załużnego i jego współpracowników o ambicje polityczne. Załużny cieszy się ogromnym poparciem społecznym, ufa mu 88% Ukraińców - dla porównania Zełenskiemu ufa 62%. Przynajmniej teoretycznie, Załużny mógłby zatem rzucić wyzwanie Zełenskiemu

Poland was the first to come to Ukraine's rescue. As time goes by and memory fades, this thread sets the record straight on the titanic effort that Poland and its people have made to support Ukraine in the most trying moment Literally hours after the initial Russian attack, Polish Minister of Defence reported that the convoy with ammunition arrived in Ukraine. That was just a starter. We now know that Poland started supplying Ukraine with weapons already before February 24th

https://twitter.com/mblaszczak/status/1497258005955547143

🧵Short thread on why Ukraine refuses to negotiate with Russia and recognises Putin to be devoid of any credibility 👇 During the 2014 battle of Ilovaisk, the Russian high military command gave their word as officers to Ukrainian counterparts that a safe corridor would be opened for withdrawal of the Ukrainian troops. The Russians had lied, opened fire and killed hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers

🧵 🇵🇱 🇺🇦 Кілька думок із приводу дискусії про польсько-українські відносини (1) Ніколи не існувало та не існує "беззастережної підтримки". Україні треба її домагатися із боку Польщі, так само, як підтримки з боку інших друзів

🧵A longer thread on the "grain deal" - who, what and why. Its significance for Ukraine, and what the Russian motivations have been. Few remarks on the sidelines of the ongoing Russia-Africa summit in St Petersburg Big picture: Russian invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent blockade of the Black Sea carried the risk of a food crisis. Before the war, Ukraine was one of the world’s largest exporters of grain - sunflower oil, maize, barley, wheat

🧵Bazując na materiałach ukraińskich i rosyjskich służb specjalnych, nowy raport RUSI dość szczegółowo przybliża rosyjskie przygotowania do inwazji na Ukrainę. Krótkie streszczenie w wątku poniżej 👇
rusi.org/explore-our-re… FSB miała rozpocząć przygotowania do inwazji (okupacji Ukrainy) w lipcu 2021r. Odpowiednią strukturę FSB podzielono na komórki przypisane do poszczególnych ukraińskich obwodów oraz komórki tematyczne odpowiedzialne za ukraiński parlament i infrastrukturę krytyczną

🧵On the eve of the anniversary of the Russian invasion on Ukraine, Joe Biden comes to Warsaw to thank the Poles for helping Ukraine. Poland was the first to come to Ukraine's rescue. The following thread sheds some light on the Polish efforts Literally hours after the initial Russian attack, Polish Minister of Defence reported that the convoy with ammunition arrived in Ukraine. That was just a starter. We now know that Poland started supplying Ukraine with weapons already before February 24th

https://twitter.com/mblaszczak/status/1497258005955547143

🧵 Erich Vad, ex advisor to Merkel and co-architect of her flawed policy towards Russia, is back again advocating against arms supplies to Ukraine. He has been consistently wrong on Ukraine/Russia since Feb24, but this time he is also spreading lies

emma.de/artikel/erich-… Let's start with the basic facts: [ONE] there was no “civil war” in Ukraine "between Russian-speaking ethnic groups and Ukrainians themselves”. Russia annexed Crimea and subsequently the Russian special forces staged an alleged local rebellion in Donbas

THREAD/ Where are we regarding Ukraine now, after Macron's talks with Putin and Zelensky? Seemingly, the same place where we were before, as we agree to disagree, want to keep talking, & want (at least officially) to implement Minsk agreements. But that's not the full picture I'm afraid we have been worse off. Macron's visit to Moscow was culmination of longer process, which included i.a. earlier visit of Vimont also to Moscow, Ukraine's withdrawal of draft law on transition period in Donbas, and then Normandy format meeting in Paris

WĄTEK/ Gdzie jesteśmy w sprawie Ukrainy po rozmowach Macrona z Putinem i Zełenskim. Zdawać by się mogło, że niby tam gdzie przedtem. Zgadzamy się, że się nie zgadzamy. Chcemy dalej rozmawiać. Chcemy (przynajmniej oficjalnie) wdrożenia porozumień mińskich. Jednak to tylko iluzja Otóż jesteśmy w gorszej pozycji niż byliśmy. Wizyta Macrona w Moskwie była zwieńczeniem dłuższego procesu. Objął on wizytę Vimonta w Moskwie, rezygnację Ukrainy z przyjęcia ustawy o okresie przejściowym w Donbasie, potem spotkanie formatu normandzkiego w Paryżu

THREAD/ Few cents on the on-going discussion on potential Ukraine's concessions towards Russia, especially against the background of upcoming Macron & Scholz's visits to Moscow There's long been a temptation in the West to settle the situation in Donbas at the expense of further Ukrainian concessions. Interestingly, this has not been due to the naivety of Western leaders, as many believe, but rather stems from the expertise they are provided with

THREAD/ I do hope this will serve as a little reminder that it's never been about Ukraine's NATO membership and that Russia planned a military operation against Ukraine long before 2008 Bucharest summit Already in 2000, Putin was to tell Ukrainian PM Yushchenko in Moscow that 'Crimea as part of Ukraine' was an injustice yet to be corrected. Former UA DFM Olena Zerkal admitted that Ukraine's archives contain a document detailing the visit (since 44:50)

Almost every ENG article on #Ukraine mentions the country's "cultural and historic ties with Russia", but virtually none mentions Ukraine's close cultural and long historic ties with Central Europe. Where does this bias come from? Lack of knowledge? Use of RU-lang sources only? "Until 1654, most of our history,
interests, political, cultural &
economic ties had been rooted in
Central Europe. Ukrainian identity is Central
European identity" - Ukraine's MFA @DmytroKuleba told
@SlawomirDebski in interview with @PPD_PISM

pism.pl/webroot/upload…

My few comments on this piece which turns the whole story with the negotiations around Donbas on its head just to make you believe that the West should push Ukraine for another concessions instead of living up to the Russian challenge

politico.com/news/magazine/… "U.S. policy has generally been to offer sticks to Moscow and carrots to Kyiv"

Ukraine would love to be offered as many carrots as Russia has been for the last couple of years. Yet Moscow apparently fears that one loses weight if includes carrots as part of their diet

[THREAD] With the first anniversary of the Normandy Summit in Paris approaching, expires the deadline for the ultimatum set by Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky regarding further negotiations with Russia on the situation in Donbas Spring this year, Zelensky told the Guardian he gave a 1-year deadline from Paris summit to find a breakthrough. The deadline thus expires on Wednesday, 9 XII. According to Zelensky, 2-3 scenarios were ready in case of withdrawal from talks with Russia

theguardian.com/world/2020/mar…

[WĄTEK] Wraz ze zbliżającą się pierwszą rocznicą szczytu formatu normandzkiego w Paryżu upływa termin ultimatum, postawionego przez prezydenta Ukrainy Wołodymyra Zełenskiego w sprawie dalszych negocjacji na temat sytuacji w Donbasie W wywiadzie dla Guardiana wiosną br. Zełenski zapowiedział, że daje sobie rok od szczytu w Paryżu na poszukiwanie kompromisu z Rosją. Rok upływa w środę 9XII. Według ukraińskiego prezydenta gotowe były 2-3 scenariusze na wypadek odejścia od rozmów z Rosją

theguardian.com/world/2020/mar…

It's already been a year since the last Normandy Format summit (9 XII 2019). The talks have remained in a stalemate as Russia still lacks political will to withdraw its troops from Donbas. President Zelensky has been ready to make concessions, but the Ukrainians are not so keen One of the least popular among possible Ukrainian concessions towards Russia has been restoration of water supplies to the occupied Crimea. Latest @PISM_Poland analysis sheds some light on water shortages on the peninsula:

https://twitter.com/dszeligowski/status/1333778865391620097