Head of Eastern Europe Programme & Senior Research Fellow on Ukraine, Polish Institute of International Affairs @PISM_Poland
12 subscribers
Plan składa się z pięciu elementów. Pierwsze cztery dotyczą sytuacji bieżącej, piąty - okresu powojennego. Do planu dołączone są trzy niepubliczne aneksy, które zostały przedstawione wybranym partnerom zagranicznym
Celem porozumienia jest "pomoc Ukrainie w realizacji prawa do samoobrony", czyli długoterminowe i wielowymiarowe wsparcie Ukrainy w budowie jej zdolności do obrony i odstraszania Rosji. Jak dotąd Polska przekazała Ukrainie pomoc wojskową o łącznej wartości ponad 4 mld euro
In early 2014, Ukraine was a neutral country, with a pro-Russian president, and with 70% of Ukraine's population against NATO membership. Yet Russia bluntly violated Ukraine's neutrality and annexed Crimea, then launched a covert invasion of Ukraine in the east
Ukraine’s foreign partners have been kicking the can down the road with its crisis management strategy, but this approach is faltering now. They are still in a position to deny Russia its objectives in Ukraine. Lacking until now, however, has been political will and leadership
Już w 2000 r. Putin miał powiedzieć Juszczence, że Krym jako część Ukrainy to dziejowa niesprawiedliwość, którą należy naprawić. Była wiceminister spraw zagranicznych Ołena Zerkał przyznała, że w ukraińskich archiwach jest notatka z tego spotkania (44:50)
1/ Strikes me the dissonance between celebratory mood of the conference and situation in Ukraine. Western officials keep spinning optimistic visions of post-war reconstruction. Ukrainian authorities worry if they will have enough foreign funding next year to pin down the budget
There are three pieces of the puzzle in Putin's statement. 1/ alleged readiness to negotiate; 2/ his repeated demand to go back to Istanbul talks; 3/ "the new realities" on the ground. Let's go step by step
Small retrospective first. A month before the Russian invasion, President Zelensky with his top advisors arrive in Wisła, a mountain residence of Poland's President. War looms on the horizon. Both sides are setting up an informal channel of communication in case of emergency 
Recent days have seen a renewed debate over the Ukrainian-Russian peace talks of spring of 2022. The popular wisdom says that both sides were close to an agreement, but this is simply false. Let's finally unpack it, dyspel the myths and put a stop to the manipulation that abound
Let's start with basic rhetoric. Why is it always NATO that barks at the Russian door, but never Russia barking at the NATO door? Why is it us who failed to build a common European house with Russia, but not Russia who failed to build a common house with us?
Ekipa Zełenskiego podejrzewa Załużnego i jego współpracowników o ambicje polityczne. Załużny cieszy się ogromnym poparciem społecznym, ufa mu 88% Ukraińców - dla porównania Zełenskiemu ufa 62%. Przynajmniej teoretycznie, Załużny mógłby zatem rzucić wyzwanie Zełenskiemu
Literally hours after the initial Russian attack, Polish Minister of Defence reported that the convoy with ammunition arrived in Ukraine. That was just a starter. We now know that Poland started supplying Ukraine with weapons already before February 24th
During the 2014 battle of Ilovaisk, the Russian high military command gave their word as officers to Ukrainian counterparts that a safe corridor would be opened for withdrawal of the Ukrainian troops. The Russians had lied, opened fire and killed hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers
Big picture: Russian invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent blockade of the Black Sea carried the risk of a food crisis. Before the war, Ukraine was one of the world’s largest exporters of grain - sunflower oil, maize, barley, wheat 
Literally hours after the initial Russian attack, Polish Minister of Defence reported that the convoy with ammunition arrived in Ukraine. That was just a starter. We now know that Poland started supplying Ukraine with weapons already before February 24th