🧵 Setting the record straight on Putin's approach to Ukraine In early 2014, Ukraine was a neutral country, with a pro-Russian president, and with 70% of Ukraine's population against NATO membership. Yet Russia bluntly violated Ukraine's neutrality and annexed Crimea, then launched a covert invasion of Ukraine in the east

🧵Dyskusja wybuchła na nowo ze względu na słowa Trumpa i Farage'a, więc polecam ten wątek. Dlaczego potencjalne członkostwo Ukrainy w NATO to jedynie rosyjska wymówka, i jak Rosja planowała agresję na Ukrainę na długo przed szczytem w Bukareszcie w 2008 roku Już w 2000 r. Putin miał powiedzieć Juszczence, że Krym jako część Ukrainy to dziejowa niesprawiedliwość, którą należy naprawić. Była wiceminister spraw zagranicznych Ołena Zerkał przyznała, że w ukraińskich archiwach jest notatka z tego spotkania (44:50)

🧵Seven quick takes on the margins of Ukraine Recovery Conference in Berlin #URC2024 1/ Strikes me the dissonance between celebratory mood of the conference and situation in Ukraine. Western officials keep spinning optimistic visions of post-war reconstruction. Ukrainian authorities worry if they will have enough foreign funding next year to pin down the budget

🧵 "Russia is ready for negotiations regarding Ukraine (...) but on the basis of the Istanbul agreements, and taking into account the new realities" - announced Putin at Petersburg International Economic Forum. Let's unpack this conundrum 👇 There are three pieces of the puzzle in Putin's statement. 1/ alleged readiness to negotiate; 2/ his repeated demand to go back to Istanbul talks; 3/ "the new realities" on the ground. Let's go step by step

THE DEAL THAT NEVER WAS – PART 2/2

I have previously gone over why there was no chance of a Ukrainian-Russian deal in spring 2022. Today, I will try to answer some of your questions about the "Polish perspective". This is how and why we know what we know Small retrospective first. A month before the Russian invasion, President Zelensky with his top advisors arrive in Wisła, a mountain residence of Poland's President. War looms on the horizon. Both sides are setting up an informal channel of communication in case of emergency

🧵THE DEAL THAT NEVER WAS

How Russia sought to subjugate Ukraine, the West rightly refused to play the ball, and Putin became personally responsible for the failure of the Ukrainian-Russian talks Recent days have seen a renewed debate over the Ukrainian-Russian peace talks of spring of 2022. The popular wisdom says that both sides were close to an agreement, but this is simply false. Let's finally unpack it, dyspel the myths and put a stop to the manipulation that abound

🧵 This is already making rounds, so I will try to shed some more light on March/April 2022 Ukraine-Russia talks since the article is still far from the point, and because Poland played a much bigger role than anyone is willing to admit publicly
foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/talks-… You can easily Google this photo. This is just a tip of the iceberg

🧵 Over the past three decades, the transatlantic community has paid much more attention to Russia than to anyone else. Far too much. The world does not revolve around Russia, and we should finally stop acting as if Russia was the centre of the universe Let's start with basic rhetoric. Why is it always NATO that barks at the Russian door, but never Russia barking at the NATO door? Why is it us who failed to build a common European house with Russia, but not Russia who failed to build a common house with us?

🧵 This is precisely the kind of West-centric logic that contributed significantly to Russia's decision to attack Ukraine over and over again 👇

https://twitter.com/ElbridgeColby/status/1768717048102736125

Russia does *not* want a palatable exit. It has been offered quite a few, and has never taken them. First, when the U.S. and Germany told Ukraine to stand down as Russia annexed Crimea. Second, when Ukraine was forced twice into the Minsk Agreements

🧵Gen. Wałerij Załużny został odwołany ze stanowiska głównodowodzącego ukraińskimi siłami zbrojnymi. Zastąpi go gen. Ołeksandr Syrski, który na początku inwazji dowodził obroną Kijowa. Długo odkładana w czasie, w dużej mierze motywowana politycznie decyzja prezydenta Zełenskiego Ekipa Zełenskiego podejrzewa Załużnego i jego współpracowników o ambicje polityczne. Załużny cieszy się ogromnym poparciem społecznym, ufa mu 88% Ukraińców - dla porównania Zełenskiemu ufa 62%. Przynajmniej teoretycznie, Załużny mógłby zatem rzucić wyzwanie Zełenskiemu

Poland was the first to come to Ukraine's rescue. As time goes by and memory fades, this thread sets the record straight on the titanic effort that Poland and its people have made to support Ukraine in the most trying moment Literally hours after the initial Russian attack, Polish Minister of Defence reported that the convoy with ammunition arrived in Ukraine. That was just a starter. We now know that Poland started supplying Ukraine with weapons already before February 24th

https://twitter.com/mblaszczak/status/1497258005955547143

🧵Short thread on why Ukraine refuses to negotiate with Russia and recognises Putin to be devoid of any credibility 👇 During the 2014 battle of Ilovaisk, the Russian high military command gave their word as officers to Ukrainian counterparts that a safe corridor would be opened for withdrawal of the Ukrainian troops. The Russians had lied, opened fire and killed hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers

🧵 🇵🇱 🇺🇦 Кілька думок із приводу дискусії про польсько-українські відносини (1) Ніколи не існувало та не існує "беззастережної підтримки". Україні треба її домагатися із боку Польщі, так само, як підтримки з боку інших друзів

🧵A longer thread on the "grain deal" - who, what and why. Its significance for Ukraine, and what the Russian motivations have been. Few remarks on the sidelines of the ongoing Russia-Africa summit in St Petersburg Big picture: Russian invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent blockade of the Black Sea carried the risk of a food crisis. Before the war, Ukraine was one of the world’s largest exporters of grain - sunflower oil, maize, barley, wheat

🧵Bazując na materiałach ukraińskich i rosyjskich służb specjalnych, nowy raport RUSI dość szczegółowo przybliża rosyjskie przygotowania do inwazji na Ukrainę. Krótkie streszczenie w wątku poniżej 👇
rusi.org/explore-our-re… FSB miała rozpocząć przygotowania do inwazji (okupacji Ukrainy) w lipcu 2021r. Odpowiednią strukturę FSB podzielono na komórki przypisane do poszczególnych ukraińskich obwodów oraz komórki tematyczne odpowiedzialne za ukraiński parlament i infrastrukturę krytyczną

🧵On the eve of the anniversary of the Russian invasion on Ukraine, Joe Biden comes to Warsaw to thank the Poles for helping Ukraine. Poland was the first to come to Ukraine's rescue. The following thread sheds some light on the Polish efforts Literally hours after the initial Russian attack, Polish Minister of Defence reported that the convoy with ammunition arrived in Ukraine. That was just a starter. We now know that Poland started supplying Ukraine with weapons already before February 24th

https://twitter.com/mblaszczak/status/1497258005955547143

🧵 Erich Vad, ex advisor to Merkel and co-architect of her flawed policy towards Russia, is back again advocating against arms supplies to Ukraine. He has been consistently wrong on Ukraine/Russia since Feb24, but this time he is also spreading lies

emma.de/artikel/erich-… Let's start with the basic facts: [ONE] there was no “civil war” in Ukraine "between Russian-speaking ethnic groups and Ukrainians themselves”. Russia annexed Crimea and subsequently the Russian special forces staged an alleged local rebellion in Donbas

THREAD/ Where are we regarding Ukraine now, after Macron's talks with Putin and Zelensky? Seemingly, the same place where we were before, as we agree to disagree, want to keep talking, & want (at least officially) to implement Minsk agreements. But that's not the full picture I'm afraid we have been worse off. Macron's visit to Moscow was culmination of longer process, which included i.a. earlier visit of Vimont also to Moscow, Ukraine's withdrawal of draft law on transition period in Donbas, and then Normandy format meeting in Paris

WĄTEK/ Gdzie jesteśmy w sprawie Ukrainy po rozmowach Macrona z Putinem i Zełenskim. Zdawać by się mogło, że niby tam gdzie przedtem. Zgadzamy się, że się nie zgadzamy. Chcemy dalej rozmawiać. Chcemy (przynajmniej oficjalnie) wdrożenia porozumień mińskich. Jednak to tylko iluzja Otóż jesteśmy w gorszej pozycji niż byliśmy. Wizyta Macrona w Moskwie była zwieńczeniem dłuższego procesu. Objął on wizytę Vimonta w Moskwie, rezygnację Ukrainy z przyjęcia ustawy o okresie przejściowym w Donbasie, potem spotkanie formatu normandzkiego w Paryżu

THREAD/ Few cents on the on-going discussion on potential Ukraine's concessions towards Russia, especially against the background of upcoming Macron & Scholz's visits to Moscow There's long been a temptation in the West to settle the situation in Donbas at the expense of further Ukrainian concessions. Interestingly, this has not been due to the naivety of Western leaders, as many believe, but rather stems from the expertise they are provided with

THREAD/ I do hope this will serve as a little reminder that it's never been about Ukraine's NATO membership and that Russia planned a military operation against Ukraine long before 2008 Bucharest summit Already in 2000, Putin was to tell Ukrainian PM Yushchenko in Moscow that 'Crimea as part of Ukraine' was an injustice yet to be corrected. Former UA DFM Olena Zerkal admitted that Ukraine's archives contain a document detailing the visit (since 44:50)