PMC COVID-19 Forecast, May 13, 2024 (U.S.)
Expect transmission to hover around 350,000-500,000 infections/day through mid-July.
Transmission has increased the past 2 weeks. Now we have some clarity on the forecast (red line). It looks like we should fall short of the 500K mark through May (more like 425-485K for the May "high"). This isn't quite high enough to rebound us into a new valley in June. Instead, I expect a plateau from late May to mid-July, before transmission takes off in August.
This is good and bad for scheduling dental/medical visits. It's "good" in that it's relatively arbitrary to schedule any time between now and mid-July, at least based on the current data we have. It's "bad" in that it looks like we have already bottomed out on transmission for 2024. Before today, I would have said there was about a 50-50 chance we would rebound to a low in June. That now looks unlikely.
In the near term, expect the "gist" of this to stay the same, but the specifics could still fluctuate over the next couple weeks. For example, if Biobot corrects their real-time data 10% upward or downward, that changes the forecast. They have been a little inconsistent the past 2.5 months, correcting real-time data in the 3-12% range. Before that, the typical error in real-time reports was often 0-1%, except with bigger corrections near wave peaks.
I remain very concerned about August/September when I peek ahead on my graph.
Expect transmission to hover around 350,000-500,000 infections/day through mid-July.
Transmission has increased the past 2 weeks. Now we have some clarity on the forecast (red line). It looks like we should fall short of the 500K mark through May (more like 425-485K for the May "high"). This isn't quite high enough to rebound us into a new valley in June. Instead, I expect a plateau from late May to mid-July, before transmission takes off in August.
This is good and bad for scheduling dental/medical visits. It's "good" in that it's relatively arbitrary to schedule any time between now and mid-July, at least based on the current data we have. It's "bad" in that it looks like we have already bottomed out on transmission for 2024. Before today, I would have said there was about a 50-50 chance we would rebound to a low in June. That now looks unlikely.
In the near term, expect the "gist" of this to stay the same, but the specifics could still fluctuate over the next couple weeks. For example, if Biobot corrects their real-time data 10% upward or downward, that changes the forecast. They have been a little inconsistent the past 2.5 months, correcting real-time data in the 3-12% range. Before that, the typical error in real-time reports was often 0-1%, except with bigger corrections near wave peaks.
I remain very concerned about August/September when I peek ahead on my graph.
Full dashboard for the PMC COVID-19 Forecasting Dashboard for May 13, 2024:
pmc19.com/data/index.php
pmc19.com/data/index.php
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