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Robin Brooks Profile picture
@robin_j_brooks
May 14 • 1 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
There's now 13 EU sanctions packages on Russia and this is the reality. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has shone a light on how the EU works and it's bad. The EU doesn't need grand visions for the future. It needs people who make it transparent and accountable in the here and now. Image

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More from @robin_j_brooks

Robin Brooks Profile picture
Oct 27
Take aways from the IMF/WB meetings
1. European denial: Europeans converged on DC this week. The degree of denial on the shift in geopolitics that Russia's invasion of Ukraine signifies is alarming. Short-termism rules. A strategic vision is woefully missing. A huge problem... Image
2. European strategic autonomy: there's a surprising number of folks who - in the event of a Trump win - advocate a European pivot towards China. Seriously? China allied itself firmly with Russia in its invasion of Ukraine. You may not like Trump, but this would be a disaster... Image
3. End to war in Ukraine: underlying this is a view in Europe that a rapid end to the war is good for the EU, the epitome of EU short-termism. Europeans crave an end to uncertainty, but that won't come by conceding Ukrainian territory to Putin. Putin will only be emboldened... Image
Read 9 tweets
Robin Brooks Profile picture
Jul 24
The Euro zone is like a bad game. There's high debt and low debt countries. The goal of high debt countries is to shift as much of their debt onto low debt countries, so they never have to pay down debt. Crazy thing is: low debt countries allow this to happen. High debt wins... Image
The key balance sheet for this debt shift is the ECB, where a complex jargon exists to hide this debt transfer. For example, high debt means yields periodically spike when there's global shocks. In the ECB vernacular, this gets called "fragmentation" and has to be prevented...
Calling yield spikes "fragmentation" sounds like there's financial market dysfunction, when markets are really just pricing a risk premium. Only way to prevent that risk premium is for the ECB - over time - to buy lots of debt from high debt countries. That's the debt transfer...
Read 4 tweets
Robin Brooks Profile picture
Nov 11, 2023
Western gaslighting on Russia sanctions
1. The German word for gaslighting is "Nebelkerze," which means "fog candle." Many western commodity experts and journalists loudly claim the G7 oil price cap can't work, while endorsing financial sanctions on Russia. They're gaslighting... Image
2. It's exactly the other way around. Financial sanctions on Russia can't work, while the G7 cap is the only way to squeeze Putin. We sanctioned some of Russia's banks (red), so money just flows via non-sanctioned banks (blue). Putin still gets ALL the hard currency he wants... Image
3. The driver of Russia's hard currency inflows is the current account surplus. If you sanction some banks, you're just redirecting financial flows. The fix is to sanction ALL banks, which is equivalent to a trade embargo (since Putin can no longer get paid and won't export)... Image
Read 10 tweets
Robin Brooks Profile picture
Nov 8, 2023
A. Russia sanctions
1. Financial sanctions on Russia don't work
2. We sanctioned Russia central bank (red)
3. Russia switched to using Gazprombank (blue)
4. Russia still earned the same amount of cash
5. Only way to fix this is to sanction all banks
6. That's like an oil embargo Image
B. Lesson is that you can't hurt a current account surplus country by sanctioning some of its banks. You have to sanction all banks, but that's like a trade embargo, since Putin won't export oil if he can't get paid. The G7 cap recognizes this. It targets the current account... Image
C. People who support financial sanctions and criticize the G7 cap ignore 18 months of data. We have 18 months of sanctions and a G7 cap that was undercut from the beginning. The result: Russia is back to earning big "excess" current account surpluses. Only the G7 cap fixes this. Image
Read 4 tweets
Robin Brooks Profile picture
Oct 15, 2023
IMF/WB meetings in Marrakesh
1. Deep gloom beneath the surface. At best, the US is seen as divided and distracted. At worst, it's seen as weak. Wars in Ukraine and Israel are symptoms of this. Many think the US will get tested more and more, so geopolitical risk will keep rising.
2. A meta question that hangs over everything: "What if Trump gets re-elected next year?" Such an outcome is seen as being very negative for Ukraine and Europe. Even if it doesn't happen, Putin and others have every incentive to sow confusion and instability ahead of Nov. 2024...
3. Growing recognition that popular resistance is rising towards funding Ukraine and combatting climate change. Mounting resentment in EM at G10 double standards. For example, Germany fires up coal power plants, even as much of EM gets lectured on the need for a green transition.
Read 8 tweets
Robin Brooks Profile picture
Sep 7, 2023
@steve_hanke Argentina has a population of 46 million. El Salvador has a population of 6 million, Panama has 4 million. Both countries are thus much smaller than Argentina, not to mention the fact that El Salvador has much lower per capita GDP. Not good comparators for Argentina at all...
@steve_hanke Ecuador has a population of 18 million, smaller than Argentina but better than the countries you listed. Ecuador - like Argentina - is a commodity exporter, which is key. Falling commodity prices often coincide with a soaring Dollar, which is a double whammy for dollarizers...
@steve_hanke Now let's go back to my chart. Most of Latin America did NOT dollarize. Instead, central banks were made independent, inflation was brought down, currencies were allowed to float and real GDP went up. There is no law of nature that says this cannot also be done in Argentina... Image
Read 6 tweets

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