Thread by @khodorkovsky_en

The West is losing the war: current efforts are insufficient to prevent the fall of key Ukrainian regions to Putin in the next 2 years.

1/16 🧵The facts you need to know

(Follow for a second part on good and bad sanctions)

Putin spends about $120bn a year on the war – 5.4% of Russia’s $2.2 trillion GDP – with the most commonly used Russian shell costing about $500

2/16

European aid to Kyiv over two years amounts to $88bn – about 0.25% of the EU’s GDP – with shells that cost between $5,000 and $8,0002

3/16

This means that, if we include the American contribution, Putin is outproducing the West by at least 2.5:1. This year, without US support, that ratio jumps to 4:1

4/16

At the start of the war, Russia’s population was 142 million to Ukraine’s 40 million – a ratio of about 3.5:1. Now, two years later, that ratio is 7:1. And yet, we demand that Ukraine continue to fight on – but with what?

5/16

At the current rate, Kharkiv will fall within the year, and Odesa – next year. By 2026, Ukraine will be capable only of maintaining a small-scale partisan resistance – and that is in the best case scenario

6/16

Lviv will be preserved if Polish troops, as part of NATO, enter the city. This is a more optimistic scenario, provided that the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue their heroic resistance despite all the challenges.

7/16

What is the thought process at play? ‘Perhaps if Putin takes Ukraine, he will calm down’? Perhaps he will – although as I have said before, that is highly unlikely

8/16

More likely, when the war is over, Russian soldiers will be at Poland's border. And they'll be joined by some Ukrainians, resentful of the Western betrayal and, in need of some way to earn a living, forced to join a united Russian-Ukrainian army under Russian command.

9/16

We saw a similar dynamic happen in Donbas.

10/16

I’m sure nobody who has thought about this, really wants to see such an outcome. But as it stands, this is the most likely one. The only way to prevent it is for Western countries to step up their efforts to aid Ukraine and hinder Putin

11/16

Without the support of its allies, Ukraine cannot be expected to fight off the invasion forever. Putin certainly has the support of his own allies. Xi Jinping has said that there are no limits to Sino-Russian co-operation. What can this tell us?

12/16

It tells us that when democracies are not willing to unite and act decisively, then dictators feel empowered to act as they please without fear of consequences

13/16

It’s important to keep in mind that Putin does not need territory. Putin needs a war for his domestic goals. And a weak West makes a wonderful target for him

14/16

If the West hopes to trick the world’s autocrats into a world war, then it’s well on the way to realizing that aim.

15/16

I work to draw attention to the nuances of Russian policy that mainstream outlets often miss. Follow for more analysis

16/16

Thanks to @liberalemoderne for hosting this forum on the current state of affairs between the West and Russia