Thread by @Inkvisiit

16MAY24 ORBAT and analysis thread on Kharkiv Front. RuAF began offensive operations in northern Kharkiv oblast UKR-RUS border regions on 10MAY24. During the past six days RuAF has advanced between 9 to 5 km in three distinct directions along the border. 1/

This operation is conducted by recently created NORTH (SEVER) operational-strategic grouping (OSG) based on the re-established Leningrad Military District. Offensive operations in Kharkiv area are conducted by two army corps. 2/

11thArmy Corps (Kaliningrad) and the recently established 44th Army Corps (Karelia). Each army corps has two motor rifle divisions: 18thGMRD (11th AC) and 72nd MRD (44th AC). 72ndis still partially undergoing formation. 3/

RuAF has also recently redeployed additional forces to partake in this offensive: 6th Combined Arms Army (6CAA) elements from 25th and 138th SGMRB’s as well as elements from the 1st Guards Tank Army (1GTA). 4/

There is also evidence of VDV battlegroup taking part in the offensive, but exact extent of VDV participation is still largely unclear. Most of the RuAF units have likely been committed in detached battalion groups, with bulk of their forces still held in reserve. 5/

RuAF operational goal is likely threefold: 1) Secure a buffer zone to prevent UkrAF from conducting cross border raids into Belgorod oblast. 2) Tie down local UkrAF units and draw in as many UkrAF reserves as possible. 3) Place city of Kharkiv under tube artillery fire. 6/

It is therefore likely that this operation is intended as fixing action / diversionary offensive in preparation for the main Russian summer campaign and UkrAF will have to carefully avoid overcommitting their limited reserves into this battle. 7/

However, the RuAF commitment of multiple elements from the 1GTA is somewhat worrying sign. To what extent these units have been brought into the area, will be a crucial question in determining the true scope and aim of this operation. 8/

UkrAF has redeployed some reserves and units from other sectors of the frontline to help contain the Russian offensive: 92nd Assault Bde, Khartia Bde, and elements from several other brigades. 9/

Russians have so far failed to capture the town of Vovchansk which is proving to be difficult bottleneck for the Russians to overcome. Closer to Kharkiv in the direction of Lyptsi and Vesele RuAF has had more successes. 10/

The fighting is reportedly fierce and situation far from stable. Russians have not yet started any other major offensives and the threatening situation near Ocheretyne has, at least for a moment, been brought back under tentative UkrAF control. 11/

RuAF continues to pressure and probe UkrAF lines along the entire frontline. Ukraine should by my calculations still have uncommitted reserves, but it is crucial to correctly balance their use and avoid overcommitment on the eve of anticipated RuAF summer campaign. 12/

Where these offensives will take place is hard to predict. There are predictable options: Continue offensives in the directions of Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk and Lyman. It is also possible that RuAF will seek to attack directions which have seen less action over the past months.13/

These could be for example push from Svatove towards the Oskil river, or perhaps in the southern front from Polohy towards Hulyaipole. RuAF recently began to redeploy their 76th Guards Air Assault division from Orikhiv direction. 14/

Where this unit will be deployed next is likely to be good candidate for a next major effort by RuAF, but we must also remember that small detachments from this and other VDV units could be used as part of maskirovka (deception). 15/

This thread was sourced from various TG channels (K. Mashovets and WarArchive_ua to name a few), @UAControlMap, CDS substack, @GeoConfirmed. Special shoutout to @moklasen who closely follows RuAF units and orbat changes.

Another special thank goes to @wihurinrahasto for providing the funding which allows us to maintain our ORBAT map and continued analysis. You can follow our daily frontline situation map here: scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-…