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Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
@TheStudyofWar
May 17 • 2 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Russian forces recently advanced southeast of Kupyansk amid continued fighting along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on May 16. (1/2)
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2/ Geolocated footage published on May 16 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced north of Berestove (southeast of Kupyansk), and Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces are advancing towards the northern outskirts of the settlement. isw.pub/UkrWar051624
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More from @TheStudyofWar

Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
May 18
Frontline Updates 🧵(1/8)

Northern Kharkiv: Russian forces continued offensive operations near Lyptsi on May 17 and reportedly advanced near Vovchansk, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline in this area.Image
2/ Luhansk: Russian forces reportedly advanced northwest of Svatove and south of Kreminna on May 17, although there were no confirmed changes to the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna front.Image
3/ Bakhmut: Russian forces continued assaults near Chasiv Yar on May 17 but did not make any confirmed advances.

Russian forces also continued ground attacks in the Siversk direction near Spirne (east of Siversk), Vyimka (SE of Siversk), and Rozdolivka (south of Siversk) on May 17.Image
Read 8 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
May 18
More Key Takeaways from the May 17, 2024 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment (🧵1/9):

Zelensky stated that UKR forces have stabilized the front in northern Kharkiv Oblast and that RU forces have not reached Ukraine's "concrete" and "most powerful" line of defense in the area.
2/ Russian forces will likely be able to stretch Ukrainian forces along a wide front and fix Ukrainian troops in the international border area even as the tempo of Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast slows.
3/ Russian forces reportedly leveraged notable electronic warfare (EW) capabilities to support tactically significant gains during the first days of their limited offensive operation in northern Kharkiv Oblast.
Read 9 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
May 17
NEW: Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces are stabilizing the situation along the northern border in Kharkiv Oblast and that the tempo of Russian offensive operations in the area continues to decrease. (1/4)Image
2/ Russian fixed-wing aircraft have increasingly targeted Kharkiv City and its environs with glide bombs and various missile strikes in recent weeks to degrade Ukrainian defenses and prompt residents to flee the city. Image
3/ Sufficient air defense coverage in the Kharkiv City area would allow Ukrainian forces to constrain Russian aviation operations, but only if Western countries permitted Ukraine to use the systems to intercept Russian aircraft in Russian airspace since Russian aircraft can strike Kharkiv City without ever leaving Russian airspace.Image
Read 4 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
May 16
NEW: The tempo of Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast continues to decrease after Russian forces initially seized areas that Ukrainian officials have now confirmed were less defended. 🧵(1/5)Image
2/ ISW currently assesses that Russian forces have advanced no more than 8 km from the international border in northern Kharkiv Obl. Russian forces operating in Russia could easily conduct artillery strikes against Ukrainian defensive positions close to the international border.
3/ Western prohibitions on the use of Western-provided weapons systems for strikes against rear Russian areas across the border make potential fixed Ukrainian defensive positions close to the international border vulnerable and possibly indefensible, however.
Read 5 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
May 15
NEW: The pace of Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast appears to have slowed over the past 24 hours. 🧵1/5

The pattern of RU offensive activity in this area is consistent w/ ISW's assessment that RU forces are prioritizing the creation of a "buffer zone" in the international border area over a deeper penetration of Kharkiv Oblast.Image
2/ Several Ukrainian military officials reported on May 14 that they believe the situation in Kharkiv Oblast is slowly stabilizing - Ukrainian officials noted that Ukrainian forces have begun to "clear" Vovchansk by targeting visible Russian assault groups in the settlement.
3/ Several Russian and Ukrainian sources also reported that Russian forces are using new tactics in this direction— smaller assault groups of no more than 5 people to penetrate Ukrainian positions before merging with other small assault groups to unite into a larger strike group.
Read 5 tweets
Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
May 14
NEW: Russian forces continued to make tactically significant advances north and NE of Kharkiv City on May 13 and currently appear to be prioritizing the rapid establishment of a "buffer zone" along the international border over setting conditions for deeper penetrations into northern Kharkiv Oblast. (1/3)Image
2/ Geolocated footage published on May 13 shows that Russian forces have advanced into Hlyboke (north of Lyptsi) and raised a flag in the center of the village, but Russian sources claimed that Russian forces have not yet seized the entirety of Hlyboke and advanced west of the settlement along the west (left) bank of the Kharkiv River. Additional geolocated footage shows that Russian forces advanced southwest of Oliinykove (northeast of Lyptsi) and north of Lukyantsi (northeast of Lyptsi and southeast of Oliinykove). The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces achieved unspecified tactical success near Lukyantsi. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces entered Lukyantsi, but ISW has not observed visual confirmation of this claim. Russian forces also continued attacking in the Lyptsi direction near Pylna (northeast of Lyptsi and Oliinykove), and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Hlyboke.Image
3/ Geolocated footage published on May 12 shows that Russian forces seized the Vovchansk Meat Processing Plant in northern Vovchansk, and Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces also captured a shoe factory in northern Vovchansk on the morning of May 13 and advanced into central Vovchansk up to the northern (right) bank of the Vovcha River by the evening. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces are also clearing Starytsya and Buhruvatka (both west of Vovchansk on the C-210817 road) but that Russian forces do not control the settlements, and also advanced in a forest area further south of Ohirtseve (northwest of Vovchansk). Russian forces also attacked on the Izbytske-Starytsya-Buhruvatka line west of Vovchansk and near Tykhe (east of Vovchansk), where the Russian MoD also reported Ukrainian counterattacks. Russian sources claimed that fighting continued between the Lyptsi and Vovchansk salients near Zelene (on the international border between Lyptsi and Vovchansk) and that Ukrainian forces partially withdrew from Ternova (immediately southeast of Zelene).Image
Read 4 tweets

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