Thread by @TrentTelenko

I'm going to pound on a point generally ignored in the OSINT community on X.

That is, how little OSINT analysis of satellite and drone videos can actually see in terms of fragmentation damage due to low video resolution.

Eternal BDA Failure 🧵
1/

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1791331056672465000

Please carefully look at the disabling tungsten ball fragments from GMLRS strikes on this truck.

Go to the 2 minute to end of the video. Satellites simply cannot see this damage, nor most drone videos.

2/

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1715084570620473602

The "intact & seemingly undamaged" planes at Belbek airfield in that MAXAR satellite imagery could and likely are looking like this Russian helicopter.

image h/T @Wilkmans
3/

High altitude photographic intelligence in WW2 and satellite images now simply cannot see the fragmentation damage, or other impact marks, done to vertical surfaces like the building or ship below unless it has a good oblique angle.

4/

EVERYONE forgets the problems of fragmentation battle damage assessments between wars.

Just like they forget actual tire & artillery shell usage rates & the subsequent wartime shortages.

5/

https://twitter.com/i/status/1715458512363409609

But no one wants to pay for the reconnaissance assets and intelligence training to do the mission between wars.

Battle damage assessment errors are the "Eternal Surprise/Eternal Failure" of military intelligence.

6/6

@threadreaderapp unroll please