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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
May 17 • 18 tweets • 8 min read • Read on X
This is a "flaming datum" for the Lanchester Square Collapse of Russian national air defenses.

And it wasn't just 20 drones flying by.

Lanchester smiles at RuAF National Air Defenses🧵
1/
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It was 80.

2/
And a high percentage of this Ukrainian propeller cruise missile stream hit their intended targets.

3/
Hundreds of American HARM anti-radiation and GMLRS missiles have been fired by Ukraine at Russian Buk, S-300 & S-400 batteries in occupied territories for over two years.

4/




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Russia has systematically stripped Syria and it's national air defenses to feed into the high tech meat grinder that is occupied Ukraine because of it's below replacement rate air defense missile system production.


5/
Russia has been borrowing from its national air defense "Peter" to pay the occupied territories logistical "Paul" to replace the losses from the 18(+) months long Ukrainian PSU suppression of air defense (SEAD) campaign.

6/
So "Peter" - Russian national air defense - are bankrupt in the face of Ukraine's accumulated Shahed-136 class drones.

7/
We are now here (⬇️) in terms of Russian national air defense versus Ukrainian strategic bombardment with propeller cruise missiles.

8/
While Ukraine has been adapting to Shahed-136 assault drone attacks with it's mobile anti-aircraft gun and shoulder fired missile territorial defense groups, jamming and 5,000 plus smartphone sonic sensor network.

9/


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Ukraine has also been analyzing Russian Shahed attacks and feeding them to an element inside the Ukrainian military like the Standoff Munitions Activity Center (SMAC) at Barksdale AFB.

10/
 8af.af.mil/Units/Standoff…
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SMAC does evasive radar routing for integrated cross-service standoff munition attack profiles for all the US Military services when facing high end "Anti-Access Area Defense (A2AD) threats.

I did a 🧵on them in March 2022 on Pres Trump's 2018 Syrian missile strikes.

11/
This sort of missile route planning is downstream from digital mapping and "geospatial intelligence."

Much has happened since 10/2018 & A.I. is here.

That Ukraine has developed its own "SMAC" for attacks on Sevastopol, Novorossiysk, etc. is a given.

12/
Another given is that Russia will not be able to copy the Ukrainian mobile territorial defense forces gun-based anti-aircraft groups.

The Russian Federation simply lacks an improved road network dense enough to copy the Ukrainian TDF "Anti-aircraft technical" solution.

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Air Defense penetrating mission planning software has been around for decades via the late 1980's era F-117.

Western military analysts only began appreciating the spread of this software to drones in 2020 during the Azeri-Armenian War.

14/
The combination of low Russian improved road network density and AFU drone mission planning software means Ukrainian propeller cruise missiles/assault drone streams can be routed away from improved roads.

The next Russian mud season will be...interesting...for Russia.👿

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I did an open source 🧵almost 4 years ago in Oct 2020 on X/Twitter explaining much of this.

In 2024, we are two complete drone-computer technology generations from the Azeri-Armenian War.

16/
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Ukraine's propelled cruise missile/assault drone strategic bombing campaign is now in the process of teaching the world what those two generations of advancement means on Russia's industrial and logistical infrastructure.

"Escalation Management" be damned.

17/17 End
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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 27
Yes, I've been looking for Russian train derailments that could be attributed to lack of foreign roller bearing for a while.

Now there may be one where I expected they would show up first.
1/
Something I've been expecting to see since September 2022 in fact.

See that post below:

2/
Is there reason to think about roller bearing failures now?

Yes there is.

Look at the map below.

3/
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Read 9 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 23
I can't begin to tell you how scary/spooky reading this @AndrewPerpetua post is a historian of WW2 Pacific combat.

His list is literally the WW2 Imperial Japanese adaptation to US air & artillery firepower.

1/
Compare the photo clip to this:

"1: Digging deep. At least 2 meters, minimum. If not 3 or 4. The problem becomes the slope of the trench. It is better to dig into a hill if possible to reduce the slope."

2/ Image
Compare IJA Okinawa cave cover text & mortar position photo clips to this observation:

"2: Overhead cover. You must protect yourself against drones at a minimum. Protecting against artillery is likely impractical, but where possible it should be done."

3/

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Read 12 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 22
As the end of this video details, the "Birds of Magyar" had a radio repeater drone right on top of that RuAF Drone unit occupied the building in order to be able to inspect its insides with an FPV drone.

A drone war organizational change🧵
1/2
It looks like the "Birds of Magyar" repeater drone was also relaying Russian drone analog video back to its drone operators.

The seamless integration of SIGINT within drone unit ops, without reference to any other organization, or higher command, is not Western practice with drones.

2/
In the US Army, SIGINT & Jamming belong to one Military Intelligence.

Drones belong, based on size, too the following:
1. The Division aviation brigade (Group 4 - MQ-1C Grey Eagle)
2. The Brigade combat team (Group 3 - RQ-7 Shadow) and,
3. Battalion & below (Group 1 - RQ-11B Raven)

3/Image
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Read 18 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 22
Gosh,

Remember all the X accounts claiming these turtle tanks were the answer to Ukrainian FPV drones and a sign of Russian strength?

Not so much.⬇️

They are, in fact, a "flaming datum" of Russian military-industrial weakness.

A Lanchester Smiles🧵
A turtle tank is an obsolete tank without both traverse & elevation gear & a gun loader (perhaps w/o even a beach?) turned into a scrap steel MT-LB personnel carrier with a very low powered drone jammer on top.

2/
There are other, very vital, things missing from this T-62.

The copper cables for the tank intercom have been stripped while it was in storage, before refurbishment, and have not been replaced.

The TC can't talk to the driver!😱

The explosive from the ERA is missing.
3/
Read 14 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 20
The problem the Russians have in the small drone category is their centralized procurement model.

That model can make a lot of any one design.

It is forever behind the observe orient decide act (OODA) loop in terms of innovation

AFU Procurement model🧵
1/
...compared to Ukraine's decentralized/competitive procurement model of drone procurement.

Ukraine is perfectly willing to ignore "Not invented here" to get something right now like this:

2/
A Lithuanian design for Ukraine right now in any numbers beats the politically perfect for the centralized procurement pubahs we see in Russia...

...or the USA or that matter. Which doesn't make much of that one perfect design.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 19
This is Ukrainian FPV drone air superiority...arriving.

It is also represents the complete technological obsolescence of the USMC/US Army C-UAS, M-LIDS & M-SHORAD programs.

1/
Assuming an FPV interceptor is a $1000 a shot because of improved kinematic performance & specialized light weight fragmentation warhead.

Everything you see in photographs below is obsolete from a cost effectiveness perspective.

2/
FPV drones are "disintermediated" from any ground or vehicular infrastructure.

Any flat piece of ground or even a human hand to launch them will do.

3/
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Read 9 tweets

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