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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
May 17, 2024 • 18 tweets • 8 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
This is a "flaming datum" for the Lanchester Square Collapse of Russian national air defenses.

And it wasn't just 20 drones flying by.

Lanchester smiles at RuAF National Air Defenses🧵
1/
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It was 80.

2/
And a high percentage of this Ukrainian propeller cruise missile stream hit their intended targets.

3/
Hundreds of American HARM anti-radiation and GMLRS missiles have been fired by Ukraine at Russian Buk, S-300 & S-400 batteries in occupied territories for over two years.

4/




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Russia has systematically stripped Syria and it's national air defenses to feed into the high tech meat grinder that is occupied Ukraine because of it's below replacement rate air defense missile system production.


5/
Russia has been borrowing from its national air defense "Peter" to pay the occupied territories logistical "Paul" to replace the losses from the 18(+) months long Ukrainian PSU suppression of air defense (SEAD) campaign.

6/
So "Peter" - Russian national air defense - are bankrupt in the face of Ukraine's accumulated Shahed-136 class drones.

7/
We are now here (⬇️) in terms of Russian national air defense versus Ukrainian strategic bombardment with propeller cruise missiles.

8/
While Ukraine has been adapting to Shahed-136 assault drone attacks with it's mobile anti-aircraft gun and shoulder fired missile territorial defense groups, jamming and 5,000 plus smartphone sonic sensor network.

9/


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Ukraine has also been analyzing Russian Shahed attacks and feeding them to an element inside the Ukrainian military like the Standoff Munitions Activity Center (SMAC) at Barksdale AFB.

10/
 8af.af.mil/Units/Standoff…
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SMAC does evasive radar routing for integrated cross-service standoff munition attack profiles for all the US Military services when facing high end "Anti-Access Area Defense (A2AD) threats.

I did a 🧵on them in March 2022 on Pres Trump's 2018 Syrian missile strikes.

11/
This sort of missile route planning is downstream from digital mapping and "geospatial intelligence."

Much has happened since 10/2018 & A.I. is here.

That Ukraine has developed its own "SMAC" for attacks on Sevastopol, Novorossiysk, etc. is a given.

12/
Another given is that Russia will not be able to copy the Ukrainian mobile territorial defense forces gun-based anti-aircraft groups.

The Russian Federation simply lacks an improved road network dense enough to copy the Ukrainian TDF "Anti-aircraft technical" solution.

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Air Defense penetrating mission planning software has been around for decades via the late 1980's era F-117.

Western military analysts only began appreciating the spread of this software to drones in 2020 during the Azeri-Armenian War.

14/
The combination of low Russian improved road network density and AFU drone mission planning software means Ukrainian propeller cruise missiles/assault drone streams can be routed away from improved roads.

The next Russian mud season will be...interesting...for Russia.👿

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I did an open source 🧵almost 4 years ago in Oct 2020 on X/Twitter explaining much of this.

In 2024, we are two complete drone-computer technology generations from the Azeri-Armenian War.

16/
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Ukraine's propelled cruise missile/assault drone strategic bombing campaign is now in the process of teaching the world what those two generations of advancement means on Russia's industrial and logistical infrastructure.

"Escalation Management" be damned.

17/17 End
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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 31
As voter rolls are used for Jury duty...Lancaster County, as well as other PA State, county & municipal criminal and civil justice systems will be utterly crippled for years.

It would be legal malpractice for every PA trial attorney involved in a jury trial not to file an immediate appeal based on their being non-citizens on the jury in cases they were involved with.

1/
This will require the PA state county & municipal justice systems to either prove their were not any non-citizens on the trial juries or overturn the criminal and civil verdicts.

We are talking thousands to tens of thousands of cases over since motor voter laws were passed.

2/
And this mass over turning of criminal and civil verdicts due to non-citizens in the jury pools will be true in every state where illegal aliens were included on voter rolls and were called for jury duty.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 30
It is sad to see Ukraine is again in 2026 where it was in 2023.

Specifically, Ukraine is failing to use available barge alternatives to move grain through Odesa to the wider world markets.

1/
I pointed this out in a couple of posts in 2023, before the Black Sea grain deal put it on the very back burner, explaining what could be done.

Here is one post
2/
And here is another in a larger Russian truck, port clearance & barge logistical 🧵

3/
Read 5 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 29
It's nice to see the US National Security establishment in July 2026 _FINALLY_ getting around to putting in print what I was writing about between April 2023 and Nov-Dec 2024.

Drone Revolution vs DC elites 🧵
1/
April 2023:

How drones have made Western intervention light infantry obsolete.



2/
January 2024:

“Distributed computing means distributed area denial military power in the age of drones.

We saw this in Armenia in 2020… Ukraine since Feb 2022… and… Yemen in 2024.”



3/
Read 9 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 19
Sadly for Grikin, the damage done to Russia's energy transport sector is already permanent.

We are ~six months from a Russian systemic economic collapse just from Ukrainian damage inflicted to date.

Russian collapse 🧵
1/7
The additional accumulated damage - beyond revisits to already damaged refineries - to the Russian power grid and POL supply chain in the next two months may speed this up to four months, to late November 2026, AKA just in Time for the US elections.

Russia lost 83 power
2/7 Image
...sub-stations since 1 July 2026 in occupied Ukraine.

Russia will have to strip its own unique power grid to replace these losses, shutting down supply in "less significant" parts of Russia.


3/7ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/414…
Read 8 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 11
I've been advocating that Ukraine strike Russian tugs as part of a larger campaign against Russian riverine and littoral maritime traffic since 2022.

Ukraine has delivered on all my expectations of what that would accomplish in the last five days.

Brown Water logistics🧵
1/
This is where I underscored the historical Russian use of barge logistics in WW2 as a basis for what they would be doing in occupied Ukraine

2/
This 2023 post is where I posed the question of how large Russian riverine/littoral/brown water logistical efforts were to support Russian occupation forces in southern Ukraine.
3/
Read 9 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 10
Given the massive Ukrainian victory in the "Battle of the Azov Sea."

We can say Ukraine has achieved “Usable Drone Air Superiority" over the Sea of Azov in exactly the way the Chinese would in the waters around, & air over, Taiwan when it invades.
🧵

1/
 united24media.com/war-in-ukraine…
The "Battle of the Azov Sea" shares a lot of historical elements of both the WW2 "Battle of the Bismarck Sea" and the slaughter of Allied oil tankers in 1942 during Operation Drumbeat (Paukenschlag) and Operation Neuland.

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The Battle of the Bismarck Sea was the slaughter of 12 ships of a 16 ship Imperial Japanese convoy of eight IJA freighters and eight IJN destroyers moving 6,900 IJA troops.

Tipped off by IJN seaplane deployments & radio intercepts, only 2,700 IJA troops arrived w/o weapons or ammo.
3/Image
Read 12 tweets

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