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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
May 17, 2024 • 18 tweets • 8 min read • Read on X
This is a "flaming datum" for the Lanchester Square Collapse of Russian national air defenses.

And it wasn't just 20 drones flying by.

Lanchester smiles at RuAF National Air Defenses🧵
1/
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It was 80.

2/
And a high percentage of this Ukrainian propeller cruise missile stream hit their intended targets.

3/
Hundreds of American HARM anti-radiation and GMLRS missiles have been fired by Ukraine at Russian Buk, S-300 & S-400 batteries in occupied territories for over two years.

4/




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Russia has systematically stripped Syria and it's national air defenses to feed into the high tech meat grinder that is occupied Ukraine because of it's below replacement rate air defense missile system production.


5/
Russia has been borrowing from its national air defense "Peter" to pay the occupied territories logistical "Paul" to replace the losses from the 18(+) months long Ukrainian PSU suppression of air defense (SEAD) campaign.

6/
So "Peter" - Russian national air defense - are bankrupt in the face of Ukraine's accumulated Shahed-136 class drones.

7/
We are now here (⬇️) in terms of Russian national air defense versus Ukrainian strategic bombardment with propeller cruise missiles.

8/
While Ukraine has been adapting to Shahed-136 assault drone attacks with it's mobile anti-aircraft gun and shoulder fired missile territorial defense groups, jamming and 5,000 plus smartphone sonic sensor network.

9/


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Ukraine has also been analyzing Russian Shahed attacks and feeding them to an element inside the Ukrainian military like the Standoff Munitions Activity Center (SMAC) at Barksdale AFB.

10/
 8af.af.mil/Units/Standoff…
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SMAC does evasive radar routing for integrated cross-service standoff munition attack profiles for all the US Military services when facing high end "Anti-Access Area Defense (A2AD) threats.

I did a 🧵on them in March 2022 on Pres Trump's 2018 Syrian missile strikes.

11/
This sort of missile route planning is downstream from digital mapping and "geospatial intelligence."

Much has happened since 10/2018 & A.I. is here.

That Ukraine has developed its own "SMAC" for attacks on Sevastopol, Novorossiysk, etc. is a given.

12/
Another given is that Russia will not be able to copy the Ukrainian mobile territorial defense forces gun-based anti-aircraft groups.

The Russian Federation simply lacks an improved road network dense enough to copy the Ukrainian TDF "Anti-aircraft technical" solution.

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Air Defense penetrating mission planning software has been around for decades via the late 1980's era F-117.

Western military analysts only began appreciating the spread of this software to drones in 2020 during the Azeri-Armenian War.

14/
The combination of low Russian improved road network density and AFU drone mission planning software means Ukrainian propeller cruise missiles/assault drone streams can be routed away from improved roads.

The next Russian mud season will be...interesting...for Russia.👿

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I did an open source 🧵almost 4 years ago in Oct 2020 on X/Twitter explaining much of this.

In 2024, we are two complete drone-computer technology generations from the Azeri-Armenian War.

16/
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Ukraine's propelled cruise missile/assault drone strategic bombing campaign is now in the process of teaching the world what those two generations of advancement means on Russia's industrial and logistical infrastructure.

"Escalation Management" be damned.

17/17 End
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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 6
Russian railway repair trains derailing was one of the major phase change events I've been looking for in the story of the collapse via the capital rundown of the Russian railways engines & rolling stock.

Russian Rail system collapse🧵
1/
 H/T @Prune602
kommersant.ru/doc/7637861Image
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In particular, the downstream from the cut off of Western cassette rail bearings that last ~2 million km % (5.25 years of normal service) in April 2022 from Russian engines and rolling stock should be showing up in increased derailments.

2/
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What I posted Aug 7, 2024 still holds.

The Russian rail system collapse sequence is as follows:

1st trains on remote Russian rail lines derail.

2nd more Russian trains on lines closer to Moscow derail.
3/
Read 12 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 5
Ukraine has fielded a new counter to Russian radio jamming proof fiber optic guided (FOG) drones.

After a Russian FOG FPV drone impacts, the Ukrainians are attaching a device to light up the fiber optic thread
1/
...to provide a lighted 'bread crumb' trail to the Russian drone operators.

Ukrainian drones then back track the lit-up thread to kill the operators.

2/
The kicker is that, compared to the old US FOG-M missile technology of the 1980's and 1990's, Russian 2025 era FOG-drone launchers are immobile.

This is because the Ukrainian "Truck denial zone" with radio link FPV drones is now 10 km and growing.
3/ Image
Read 9 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Apr 1
I cannot underline enough how drones have changed warfare from WW2 based on this 🧵 numbers:

75% of all RuAF Casualties are from drones
20% are from Artillery
4% are from small arms

RuAF WIA time to medical treatment past AFU drones: 14.5 hours (3 x normal CASEVAC)

Drone🧵
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In WW2 according to US Army Medical department statistics, the US Army ground forces in NW Europe and the Mediterranean took 65% of their casualties from Artillery.

In 2025, Russia is taking 75% from drones.

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Drones are now more lethal in Ukraine than artillery was in the WW2, the most artillery heavy war in human history to date.

Drones have replaced, and then some, tube artillery, rockets and mortars as the indirect fire "King of Battle."

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Read 12 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 23
Strategypage -dot- com has a new article out on the decline of Russian that civil infrastructure that makes Frederick Lanchester smile.

Russian Civil Infrastructure Attrition🧵

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Text from the article:

"Russia wants to end the Ukraine War via negotiations with the United States. This will work if done from a position of strength. The current Russian situation is weak and getting weaker.

2/
...Russian forces in Ukraine are stalled and too weak to launch another offensive, even a small one.

It will get worse. The Russian economy is starting to collapse in some or many areas because of disinvestment.

3/
Read 8 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Mar 8
Just...no.

This is the "Russia Strong" narrative pushed by those unknowingly spreading Russian Reflexive Control infowar propaganda, as here.

Russia is _Not_ Strong🧵

1/
The semiconductor industrial base is the foundation of 21st century economic & military power.

The USSR only ever produced single detector element technology like Long Wavelength Infrared (LWIR) Infrared Line Scan (IRLS) or scanning infrared Search and Track (IRST) like those on the MiG-29 Fulcrum A.

2/Image
The USSR never produced any of the classic nodding or spinning mirror LWIR Forward Looking Infrared (FLIRs) sensors that the US introduced during the Vietnam war.

In fact there is no evidence Russia was able to sustain any of the large Soviet semiconductor industry.

3/
Read 10 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Feb 19
The vast majority of US military aid to Ukraine was in fact spent inside the USA to replace vastly overpriced by the Biden Adm. National Guard & Air Guard surplus weapons.

Spending aid money buying Joint Light Tactical Vehicle (JLTV) to replace NG surplus Humvees

Infowar🧵
1/
...was just one of the aid grifts @JakeSullivan46 NSC crew played to pretend they were helping Ukraine while not offending Russia & buying US Defense contractor kit.

Pres. Trump is literally parroting Russian reflexive control scripts from Biden Adm.

2/
This should not be a surprise as I've pounded on the fact for 2 years that Russia has mapped & fed to each specific US tribal & professional demographic the data to eat up messages/memes Russia wants those groups to believe.

Calling Ukraine's...

3/
Read 7 tweets

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