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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
May 17 • 18 tweets • 8 min read • Read on X
This is a "flaming datum" for the Lanchester Square Collapse of Russian national air defenses.

And it wasn't just 20 drones flying by.

Lanchester smiles at RuAF National Air Defenses🧵
1/
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It was 80.

2/
And a high percentage of this Ukrainian propeller cruise missile stream hit their intended targets.

3/
Hundreds of American HARM anti-radiation and GMLRS missiles have been fired by Ukraine at Russian Buk, S-300 & S-400 batteries in occupied territories for over two years.

4/




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Russia has systematically stripped Syria and it's national air defenses to feed into the high tech meat grinder that is occupied Ukraine because of it's below replacement rate air defense missile system production.


5/
Russia has been borrowing from its national air defense "Peter" to pay the occupied territories logistical "Paul" to replace the losses from the 18(+) months long Ukrainian PSU suppression of air defense (SEAD) campaign.

6/
So "Peter" - Russian national air defense - are bankrupt in the face of Ukraine's accumulated Shahed-136 class drones.

7/
We are now here (⬇️) in terms of Russian national air defense versus Ukrainian strategic bombardment with propeller cruise missiles.

8/
While Ukraine has been adapting to Shahed-136 assault drone attacks with it's mobile anti-aircraft gun and shoulder fired missile territorial defense groups, jamming and 5,000 plus smartphone sonic sensor network.

9/


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Ukraine has also been analyzing Russian Shahed attacks and feeding them to an element inside the Ukrainian military like the Standoff Munitions Activity Center (SMAC) at Barksdale AFB.

10/
 8af.af.mil/Units/Standoff…
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SMAC does evasive radar routing for integrated cross-service standoff munition attack profiles for all the US Military services when facing high end "Anti-Access Area Defense (A2AD) threats.

I did a 🧵on them in March 2022 on Pres Trump's 2018 Syrian missile strikes.

11/
This sort of missile route planning is downstream from digital mapping and "geospatial intelligence."

Much has happened since 10/2018 & A.I. is here.

That Ukraine has developed its own "SMAC" for attacks on Sevastopol, Novorossiysk, etc. is a given.

12/
Another given is that Russia will not be able to copy the Ukrainian mobile territorial defense forces gun-based anti-aircraft groups.

The Russian Federation simply lacks an improved road network dense enough to copy the Ukrainian TDF "Anti-aircraft technical" solution.

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Air Defense penetrating mission planning software has been around for decades via the late 1980's era F-117.

Western military analysts only began appreciating the spread of this software to drones in 2020 during the Azeri-Armenian War.

14/
The combination of low Russian improved road network density and AFU drone mission planning software means Ukrainian propeller cruise missiles/assault drone streams can be routed away from improved roads.

The next Russian mud season will be...interesting...for Russia.👿

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I did an open source 🧵almost 4 years ago in Oct 2020 on X/Twitter explaining much of this.

In 2024, we are two complete drone-computer technology generations from the Azeri-Armenian War.

16/
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Ukraine's propelled cruise missile/assault drone strategic bombing campaign is now in the process of teaching the world what those two generations of advancement means on Russia's industrial and logistical infrastructure.

"Escalation Management" be damned.

17/17 End
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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Dec 24
The defence-blog -dot- com website reported a very important observation on the production quality of current Russian Shahed production.

It's individual quality is declining, _Hard_.

1/
 Russian End Run Production 🧵 Image
From the article:

“The Russians have adapted these drones to their needs, but due to a lack of components and efforts to reduce costs, their quality has declined,” Kulchytsky explained.

Earlier iterations of Shahed drones contained numerous foreign-made components,
2/
...including Japanese-manufactured bearings and precision-built servo drive rods.

However, recent versions have shown a transition to simplified bearings and direct rod assemblies, indicating a shortage of high-quality components."
3/
Read 14 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Dec 22
Sadly, this F-18 shoot down isn't a surprise.

The US Navy, as an institution, had a really horrid record of "friendly fire" in WW2, to include shooting down a FM-2 Wildcat fighter coming of the catapult of the CVE USS Tulagi in Kerama Retto on 6 Apr 1945.

1/
I've done threads on X highlighting this historical US Navy friendly fire institutional dysfunction.

2/
Another FM-2 Wildcat, damaged in the same Kerama Retto engagement resulting in the USS Tulagi's FM-2 getting shot down, was in turn blown out of the sky by panicked USN gunners over Kadena airfield causing massive damage to fighter fuel logistics & strafing Army troops ashore.
3/ Image
Read 10 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Dec 21
Congress being held accountable for stealth legislation & pork barrel spending _BEFORE THE VOTE IS CAST_ is my most unexpected and welcomed result of Artificial Intelligence large language models (LLM) in 2024.

AI vs Lobbyists🧵
1/
It would take eight speed reading lawyers with eidetic memories 16 to 24 man hours to parse a 1000 page piece of legislation.

Specialty lawyers charging hundred of dollars an hour working for K-Street lobbyists.

2/
Now any competent person can feed huge pieces of legislation to Grok, or other LLM, for nearly no cost and generate a similar work product in minutes to post to social media.

K-Street lobbyists in DC, & Congressmen/Senators sucking up their cash, just had their world burn.

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Dec 17
I've been involved with three US Army FMTV reset programs.

So this newest report from Ukraine's Defense Express on the the repairability problems with Russian AFV's out of their reserves is so much fun to share with you all.

1/ Image
Defense Express pulled an article from the No. 10 issue of the Russian magazine "Material and Technical Support" on how horrid the vehicles coming out of reserve are plus problems with battle damaged reserve vehicles.

2/
 en.defence-ua.com/analysis/repai…
The 2nd paragraph starts with this:

"The central takeaway from this publication is that the actual repairability of Russian tanks is 3-5 times lower than what is claimed in official manuals. This discrepancy has extended repair times for equipment by at least 15-20%."

3/
Read 12 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Dec 16
Ukraine’s claims to have produced 100 Peklo (Hell) cruise missiles over the past three months.

This works out to about 1.1 Peklo a day, but manufacturing production lines don't work like that.

Peklo Manufacturing 🧵

1/
 pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/…
The infographic figure below is a typical commercial production line curve.

Ukraine's stated production and use of the Peklo (Hell) cruise missile marks it as being on the 'start of production to market entry' ramp up part of the curve below.

2/ Image
Over two dozen Peklo were shown in this public unveiling by Ukraine, which is over 1/4 of the stated production to date.

How many were pre-production prototypes or low rate initial pilot production models isn't knowable.
3/
Read 12 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Dec 15
This is Russian exceptionalism in action again.

The Putin Regime took old riverine tankers - Volgoneft 212 and Volgoneft-239 - to sea:

1/
 unian.ua/world/richkovi…
"According to Andriy Klymenko , head of the Institute for Black Sea Strategic Studies , both vessels are very old and have a "river" class, which implies certain limitations.

2/
He published and commented on the relevant map, which indicates the approximate location of the tanker disaster.

"It is about 8 miles from the seaport of Taman (a transshipment port south of the Kerch Strait).

3/
Read 5 tweets

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