Artur Rehi Profile picture
May 17, 2024 20 tweets 8 min read Read on X
Putin's visit to China was not very successful for him in terms of economic agreements. Agreeing on the sale of Jerusalem artichoke and pork cartilage is not a very strong achievement for such a massive delegation. But there is another agreement that they have reached, and
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it gives rise to serious concern. Russia's information and propaganda agency TASS and the Chinese news agency Xinhua signed a cooperation agreement in Beijing. They are joining forces to create a common propaganda network in the world. Before this, Russian propaganda and its
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influence on the Internet are still Russia’s main and most powerful weapon against the West. China is not far behind. They had worked together before, but now they will cooperate even more closely. TikTok was banned in America, but this is not enough to fight against the
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common forces that Russia, China and other dictatorships are exerting to create a split among Western countries and aggravate internal and external problems. The scheme is not new, they use methods prescribed in the old textbooks of the Soviet KGB, but having new tools of
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global influence, like Google, Facebook, X and others, they are extremely effective and beneficial. Russia tried the tactics of hybrid wars back in 2007, when crowds of local Russians in Estonia and other groups, one way or another dissatisfied with the authorities, provoked
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by agents of influence, committed a pogrom and looting in the center of Tallinn. Then the riots lasted for 2 nights in a row. The police were not prepared for this, but it taught us a lot and Estonia now has one of the strongest cyber security structures. Then there was
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Georgia, etc. But, unfortunately, Western partners sometimes do not want to listen to the experience of our country. The huge investigation carried out by the Czech intelligence services to expose the Russian network of influence once again confirms how much effort Russia is
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making in this direction. And it still succeeds. And so far the Western response has been very slow, and meanwhile the Hybrid War tactics have reached all the way to New Caledonia, and I had to open a map to find out where it is. This is more than 14,700 km. from Estonia!
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Why can we assume that Putin and his associates are involved in the riots in Noumea? Since 2023, the New Caledonian independence movement has been supported by Azerbaijan. A non-profit organization, the Baku Initiative Group, was created there, which holds conferences and
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strengthens cooperation among political movements fighting for independence in France's recent colonies, including New Caledonia, French Polynesia, French Guiana, Martinique, Guadeloupe, and Corsica. The French and indigenous Kanak population had tense relations, but it is
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precisely such groups that are the main target audience for propaganda. NGOs are a common Kremlin strategy. Under the guise of fighting for human rights and preserving culture, they receive donations from the Kremlin and promote pro-Russian policies and narratives, hold
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conferences and organize protests. Such NPOs can be found in every country in Europe and around the World. This is their proven tactic. Azerbaijan is another dictatorship that appears to have joined the new Axis of Evil - Russia, China, North Korea and Iran. Since 2003,
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“President” Ilham Aliyev has ruled there, who won the last “elections” in February 2024 with a result of 92.12%. Since 2023, Azerbaijan has openly supported anti-French movements. The Baku Initiative Group even organized a conference in Geneva. The platform was provided to
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them by the UN and 22 countries took part there. Before the unrest in New Caledonia, there had been an information campaign in the local media for several months, fueling protest sentiments. And this is again a common Kremlin tactic. Find a group of people who somehow feel
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violated in their rights and begin to influence it through social networks, using various propaganda techniques from KGB textbooks. France has already banned TikTok on these islands, but there are too many channels and Russia uses Facebook, Google and YouTube, although they
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have largely stopped doing business with Russia, but are accessible from other parts of the world, and the Russian agents and Russians living abroad can still use these platforms in a way beneficial to Russia. We put weapons in their hands, which are ultimately
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directed against us. Seems like Putin organized the riots in New Caledonia as an answer to French support of Ukraine and statements about sending a contingent to Ukraine, but while the conversations are ongoing, France is forced to send new forces to suppress the riots,
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which complicates the situation for it. Three weeks ago, before the unrest began, the Azerbaijani leadership visited Moscow, so there is little doubt that this operation is being planned by the Kremlin. The new Axis of Evil is straightening its shoulders. China is closely
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monitoring the situation and looking not only at Taiwan, but also towards Russia, seeing the problems Putin is experiencing. And if it so happens that China takes over part of a weakened Russia, then it may be the next dictatorship that
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will be insatiable in its appetites and decide to expand its "lebensraum", capturing new territories around.
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More from @ArturRehi

Jul 1
The Russian economy is losing momentum. Sberbank chief German Gref warned that the country is entering a period of serious challenges. Speaking at the bank’s annual shareholders’ meeting, Gref pointed to military spending, inflation, and high interest rates as key factors
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that will continue to weigh on the economy through 2026. He noted that loan quality is declining, and more individuals and businesses are seeking to restructure their debts. Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that senior bank executives see the risk of a banking crisis within
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the next 12 months. Unpaid loans are quietly piling up, though this has yet to show in official figures. The agency estimates that bad loans could hit 3.7 trillion rubles — about 20% of the banking sector’s capital. Much of this traces back to the war. Many soldiers received
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Read 14 tweets
Jun 30
According to BILD, "Russia is expected to emerge stronger after the war in Ukraine, and the Kremlin is actively preparing for a potential invasion of NATO countries." While the Russian threat remains real, and it must not be dismissed — and we must indeed prepare for it — at
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this stage, nearly all statements about a potential Russian attack on NATO countries are nothing more than attempts to divert NATO’s attention and resources away from the war in Ukraine. Let’s look at the facts. The so-called “grand” summer offensive in the Sumy region
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stalled after just a month. Russia gathered 50,000 troops, but it has no more equipment. Its reserves are nearly depleted, while Ukraine’s arsenal is expanding — its range of weapons is growing, and its capabilities are increasing despite all the challenges with manpower.
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Read 16 tweets
Jun 26
Ultimately, the main achievement of both Putin and Trump is that NATO has now committed to increasing annual defense spending to at least 5% of GDP by no later than 2035 — a level unseen since the Cold War. Previously, the target was just 2%. Some countries, like Estonia,
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are already set to reach this threshold as early as next year. Spain opposed the move, but it is geographically the farthest from the main threat — Russia. At least, that’s how it seems to them. But one should not forget that Russia’s core strategy revolves around hybrid
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threats, which have no borders. For major European countries — France, Germany, and others — the decisive factor was pressure from Trump. The war in Ukraine, ongoing since 2014, had not pushed Europe toward a more serious approach to security. While the Baltic states, Poland,
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Read 7 tweets
Jun 26
NATO suggests that Russia can sustain the war at its current pace until 2027. Of course, I may be accused of being sympathetic to Ukraine and having a biased opinion, but let’s look at the facts—what’s wrong with this statement? The Russian war machine currently relies on
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Soviet-era equipment reserves, a large number of soldiers, and the National Wealth Fund. Let’s start with the first point. Soviet equipment reserves are almost completely depleted. The offensive on Sumy is carried out mainly through infantry assaults, and the amount of
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destroyed Russian equipment in recent weeks is two to three times lower than during the same period in previous years. If Russia continues the war at the same pace, by 2027 almost all of its equipment will be gone—perhaps even the few donkeys they have. As for soldiers,
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Read 18 tweets
Jun 24
The appointment of Robert Brovdi, known by his call sign "Madyar," as head of the Unmanned Systems Forces of Ukraine has already yielded noticeable results, according to Russian military bloggers. They report that Ukrainian drone strikes are now primarily aimed at eliminating
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Russian UAV operators. Madyar has openly declared his goal of building a "drone wall" along the entire front line and destroying up to 35,000 Russian soldiers per month—the estimated number that the Russian army can mobilize on a monthly basis. He advocates for establishing
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dedicated UAV units for each section of the front line, with operators who are intimately familiar with their own sector, rather than deploying UAV teams as a mobile reserve shuffled between hotspots. His concept is to create a continuous "kill zone" across the whole
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Read 12 tweets
Jun 20
The war in Iran benefits Russia in the short term, but in the long run, the loss of Iran would be a major defeat for Moscow in the region, further weakening its already diminished position in the Middle East. The fall of Syria has significantly undermined Russia’s influence
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there, and Iran remains its last major ally in the region. Russia is trying to squeeze every possible advantage out of this unfavorable situation. The war in Iran distracts the West and its allies from the conflict in Ukraine, but the main gain for Russia is the rise in oil
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prices. Russia’s 2025 budget is under enormous strain because it was planned based on an oil price of $80 per barrel. However, since the summer of 2024, oil prices have been steadily falling, reaching around $50 per barrel for Urals crude in the spring of 2025. The war in
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Read 16 tweets

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