Artur Rehi Profile picture
May 17 20 tweets 8 min read Read on X
Putin's visit to China was not very successful for him in terms of economic agreements. Agreeing on the sale of Jerusalem artichoke and pork cartilage is not a very strong achievement for such a massive delegation. But there is another agreement that they have reached, and
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it gives rise to serious concern. Russia's information and propaganda agency TASS and the Chinese news agency Xinhua signed a cooperation agreement in Beijing. They are joining forces to create a common propaganda network in the world. Before this, Russian propaganda and its
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influence on the Internet are still Russia’s main and most powerful weapon against the West. China is not far behind. They had worked together before, but now they will cooperate even more closely. TikTok was banned in America, but this is not enough to fight against the
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common forces that Russia, China and other dictatorships are exerting to create a split among Western countries and aggravate internal and external problems. The scheme is not new, they use methods prescribed in the old textbooks of the Soviet KGB, but having new tools of
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global influence, like Google, Facebook, X and others, they are extremely effective and beneficial. Russia tried the tactics of hybrid wars back in 2007, when crowds of local Russians in Estonia and other groups, one way or another dissatisfied with the authorities, provoked
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by agents of influence, committed a pogrom and looting in the center of Tallinn. Then the riots lasted for 2 nights in a row. The police were not prepared for this, but it taught us a lot and Estonia now has one of the strongest cyber security structures. Then there was
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Georgia, etc. But, unfortunately, Western partners sometimes do not want to listen to the experience of our country. The huge investigation carried out by the Czech intelligence services to expose the Russian network of influence once again confirms how much effort Russia is
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making in this direction. And it still succeeds. And so far the Western response has been very slow, and meanwhile the Hybrid War tactics have reached all the way to New Caledonia, and I had to open a map to find out where it is. This is more than 14,700 km. from Estonia!
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Why can we assume that Putin and his associates are involved in the riots in Noumea? Since 2023, the New Caledonian independence movement has been supported by Azerbaijan. A non-profit organization, the Baku Initiative Group, was created there, which holds conferences and
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strengthens cooperation among political movements fighting for independence in France's recent colonies, including New Caledonia, French Polynesia, French Guiana, Martinique, Guadeloupe, and Corsica. The French and indigenous Kanak population had tense relations, but it is
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precisely such groups that are the main target audience for propaganda. NGOs are a common Kremlin strategy. Under the guise of fighting for human rights and preserving culture, they receive donations from the Kremlin and promote pro-Russian policies and narratives, hold
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conferences and organize protests. Such NPOs can be found in every country in Europe and around the World. This is their proven tactic. Azerbaijan is another dictatorship that appears to have joined the new Axis of Evil - Russia, China, North Korea and Iran. Since 2003,
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“President” Ilham Aliyev has ruled there, who won the last “elections” in February 2024 with a result of 92.12%. Since 2023, Azerbaijan has openly supported anti-French movements. The Baku Initiative Group even organized a conference in Geneva. The platform was provided to
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them by the UN and 22 countries took part there. Before the unrest in New Caledonia, there had been an information campaign in the local media for several months, fueling protest sentiments. And this is again a common Kremlin tactic. Find a group of people who somehow feel
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violated in their rights and begin to influence it through social networks, using various propaganda techniques from KGB textbooks. France has already banned TikTok on these islands, but there are too many channels and Russia uses Facebook, Google and YouTube, although they
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have largely stopped doing business with Russia, but are accessible from other parts of the world, and the Russian agents and Russians living abroad can still use these platforms in a way beneficial to Russia. We put weapons in their hands, which are ultimately
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directed against us. Seems like Putin organized the riots in New Caledonia as an answer to French support of Ukraine and statements about sending a contingent to Ukraine, but while the conversations are ongoing, France is forced to send new forces to suppress the riots,
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which complicates the situation for it. Three weeks ago, before the unrest began, the Azerbaijani leadership visited Moscow, so there is little doubt that this operation is being planned by the Kremlin. The new Axis of Evil is straightening its shoulders. China is closely
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monitoring the situation and looking not only at Taiwan, but also towards Russia, seeing the problems Putin is experiencing. And if it so happens that China takes over part of a weakened Russia, then it may be the next dictatorship that
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will be insatiable in its appetites and decide to expand its "lebensraum", capturing new territories around.
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More from @ArturRehi

May 18
One of the factors that influenced the success of the Russian advance in the north of the Kharkov region was the shutdown of the Starlink network. The Washington Post was told, citing the Ukrainian military, that shortly before the start of the military offensive in Kharkiv,
1/8 Image
Starlink terminals stopped working, leaving the defenders blind. Communication with the drones was interrupted and they had to maintain communications by phones. This is the first major failure of this kind. The cause of the failure is unknown, but it is possible that Russia
2/8 Image
has used new electronic warfare techniques. Elon Musk responded that the Starlink satellites were under severe pressure, but did not go into detail. At the moment, Russia's advance in the north of the Kharkiv region has slowed down greatly. The Russians continue to bomb the
3/8 Image
Read 8 tweets
May 18
1/9 Trying to find a balance: Ukraine constantly faces the significant communication challenge of highlighting the need for more aid without giving the impression of being defeated. Analysis by @joni_askola Image
2/9 I don't envy Zelensky and his PR advisors as they have an incredibly challenging task ahead of them. Image
3/9 The objectives include calming the Ukrainian population, instilling hope for the future, maintaining national unity, countering russian disinformation, setting realistic expectations, and presenting the situation in a way that gathers more support from allies. Image
Read 9 tweets
May 18
1/8 The situation in Kharkiv has somewhat stabilized, but why was russia able to advance so much during the first few days? Take by @joni_askola, with information by @Black_BirdGroup, @Inkvisiit and @emilkastehelmi Image
2/8 Amid russia's initial significant advances in the first days of its offensive, numerous questions arose. One commonly cited explanation was that these advances occurred primarily in grey zones and that russia had not breached the main lines. Image
3/8 Rumors of incomplete defensive lines, misplaced constructions, and poorly built fortifications quickly began circulating. Nevertheless, while some of that may hold truth, the situation is always a bit more intricate. Image
Read 8 tweets
May 18
1/9 As forecasted: the most recent interview with @KofmanMichael and @RALee85 in the NYT confirms that russia's time is running out, as its window of opportunity is expected to close by the end of the year.

Update by @joni_askola Image
2/9 Military analysts Rob Lee and Michael Kofman predict a shifting dynamic in the conflict between Ukraine and russia. According to their analysis in The New York Times, russia's window of opportunity in Ukraine is expected to close by 2025. Image
3/9 The situation on the front line has shifted with the opening of a new front in the Kharkiv region. russian troops have advanced, but not yet reached the main line of defenses east of Kharkiv, leading to a 'serious' situation, as noted by the analysts. Image
Read 9 tweets
May 17
1/5 russia has become a fully-fledged fascist state. Take by @joni_askola Image
2/5 Fascism is a complex ideology encompassing authoritarianism, nationalism, and the suppression of opposition. It often involves a strong, centralized government led by a dictatorial leader and the promotion of a single-party state. Image
3/5 Fascism also typically emphasizes militarism, expansionism, and the glorification of the nation or a particular ethnic group. These characteristics form the basis of what is commonly understood as fascist ideology. Image
Read 5 tweets
May 17
1/7 Ukraine has identified a significant russian weakness: its territory is too vast to be effectively defended with air defense systems. Take by @joni_askola Image
2/7 Last night, Ukraine conducted one of its most successful drone strike campaigns against russia. Ukraine has been carrying out strikes against russia for months. Image
3/7 russia inherited an abundance of missile air defense systems and missiles from the USSR, which created the perception that a shortage of missiles would never be an issue. This, combined with russia's size, resulted in a reduced focus on the developing modern SHORAD systems. Image
Read 7 tweets

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