Thread by @Tatarigami_UA

Frontlines Situation Report - May 17th, 2024

The frontline situation remains challenging. Russian forces intensified attacks in the Bakhmut area and advanced tactically in the Kharnohorivka and Kharkiv areas. Despite this, the frontline remains relatively stable

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2/ Chasiv Yar

Despite initial successes in the assault on Chasiv Yar, including reaching and occasionally crossing the canal with small groups, the Russians failed to establish a foothold. Lately, they've increased the use of armored fighting vehicles to advance.

3/ The situation south of Bakhmut is more complex. Russians attempted to advance toward Klischiivka with frequent and large assaults. While most of these attacks have been repelled, it's unlikely that these attempts will cease soon, posing a continued risk to Klishchiivka

4/ Kharkiv region

Our team thinks that the frontline is not stable, albeit with no signs of collapse. Russian troops try to infiltrate forests and buildings further south to establish a foothold. However, we're skeptical about their ability to advance deeply for several reasons

5/ Initially, Russian troops dispersed infantry forces along the border, but supplying them became difficult as they moved deeper into Ukrainian territory. To push south, they need to extend logistics, which is challenging with Ukrainian brigades redeployed into the area

6/ Without fully equipped mechanized units, achieving swift and decisive penetration of defenses is almost impossible. This limitation is likely to lead to slower advances (if any), hindering the overall progress of Russian forces, unless new units will be introduced.

7/ Kurakhove-Krasnohorivka area

The situation is difficult, with Russian forces advancing in Krasnohorivka. They may try to reach Kurakhivka, aiming to cut off Kurakhove's logistical routes. However, rapid advances by Russian forces are unlikely due to defenses and geography.

8/ Chernihiv area

Over the past month, our team has monitored Russian forces near Chernihiv oblasts. While no significant invasion force is seen near Chernihiv Oblast, localized incursions across the border may extend the frontline and compel Ukrainian troop redeployment.

9/ Sumy area

While we can't estimate the current force numbers, they are larger than those near the Chernihiv oblast. We also see what seems like demonstrative actions, possibly exaggerating troop presence. The threat of another border incursion into Sumy Oblast is
very real.

10/ The overall goal likely remains the same: to force Ukrainian reserve redeployment from Donbas. Yet, we haven't seen significant deployment of new large Russian reserves to Donbas intending to turn the tide. This doesn't rule out such deployments in the future, but not yet

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