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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
May 18, 2024 • 8 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
Ukraine should thank Putin for invading Kharkiv Oblast.

Doing so has finally unmasked the duplicity of the Biden Administration on the use of Western weapons inside Russian territory.

It's _NO_ for ALL Western weapons in Russia, not just US weapons🧵

1/
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If you have always wondered why Ukraine's Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles haven't been used on the Kerch Straits Bridge...

...wonder no longer. The answer is "Escalation Management."

The Biden Administration's delusional fear that Russia will collapse if Ukraine wins.

2/ Image
And it isn't me saying this. It is Pres. Zelensky of Ukraine that did so.

"President Volodymyr Zelensky believes that Ukraine's partners "are afraid of Russia losing the war" and would like Kyiv "to win in such a way that Russia does not lose"...

3/
And that isn't the only thing Ukrainians are saying out loud about the Biden Administration's ongoing efforts to "save the Russian Empire from a War of Yugoslav Succession," which Biden & @JakeSullivan46 both think Russian defeat in Ukraine means.

4/
Nor are the Ukrainians the only ones saying the Hard Truths out loud.

The RAND Corporation normally sucks up to whichever Administration is in power.

Now Rand is saying all "Escalation Management" does is escalatie the risk of general war for NATO.

5/
 foreignpolicy.com/2024/05/17/ukr…
A lot of people have been confused as to why German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is talking about sending long range missile to Ukraine, given Chancellor Scholz's stand on the Taurus missile.

Her statement wasn't for Scholz.

6/
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock's statement is aimed at the Biden Administration's newly outed for all to see policy of pressuring Ukraine not to use SCALP/Storm Shadow in Russia or on the Kerch Straits Bridge.

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So now we all can see the Biden Administration's real "Escalation Management" foreign policy in the Russo-Ukrainian War is for "The Ukrainians to Win moderately" for a 1953 style Korean Armistice, without risking a collapse of the Russian Federation.🤮
8/8

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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 11
I've been advocating that Ukraine strike Russian tugs as part of a larger campaign against Russian riverine and littoral maritime traffic since 2022.

Ukraine has delivered on all my expectations of what that would accomplish in the last five days.

Brown Water logistics🧵
1/
This is where I underscored the historical Russian use of barge logistics in WW2 as a basis for what they would be doing in occupied Ukraine

2/
This 2023 post is where I posed the question of how large Russian riverine/littoral/brown water logistical efforts were to support Russian occupation forces in southern Ukraine.
3/
Read 9 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 10
Given the massive Ukrainian victory in the "Battle of the Azov Sea."

We can say Ukraine has achieved “Usable Drone Air Superiority" over the Sea of Azov in exactly the way the Chinese would in the waters around, & air over, Taiwan when it invades.
🧵

1/
 united24media.com/war-in-ukraine…
The "Battle of the Azov Sea" shares a lot of historical elements of both the WW2 "Battle of the Bismarck Sea" and the slaughter of Allied oil tankers in 1942 during Operation Drumbeat (Paukenschlag) and Operation Neuland.

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The Battle of the Bismarck Sea was the slaughter of 12 ships of a 16 ship Imperial Japanese convoy of eight IJA freighters and eight IJN destroyers moving 6,900 IJA troops.

Tipped off by IJN seaplane deployments & radio intercepts, only 2,700 IJA troops arrived w/o weapons or ammo.
3/Image
Read 12 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jul 2
Just...no. Russia HAS BEEN "Battle of the Cities" from the very beginning...targeting hospitals as a means of destroying ethnic minorities.

This has been Russian policy for DECADES.

Ukraine retaliating for atrocity is _RECIPROCITY_ per the Laws of War, not degeneracy.
1/2
I asked @grok to document this Russian policy of atrocity at the link, excerpt:

"February 24, 2022–present (Full-scale Russian invasion): The scale escalated dramatically. As of May 2026, the WHO had verified more than 3,000 attacks on healthcare via its Surveillance System for Attacks on Health Care (SSA). A coalition of organizations (including PHR, eyeWitness, Truth Hounds, etc.) documented ~3,095 attacks, with 1,632 damaging or destroying hospitals and clinics"

x.com/i/grok?convers…
2/
I'm afraid @cdrsalamander has gotten the moral vectors in the Russo-Ukrainian war wrong.

What is degenerate here isn't RECIPROCITY.

Degeneracy here is defined as using Woke NGO Elite definitions of morality, AKA claiming AFU RECIPROCITY per the laws of war as a war crime.
3/3 Image
Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 30
When I've talked about the legacy of Soviet industrial gigantism (one big factory) making Putin era Russia far more vulnerable to a drone strategic bombing campaign.

This is a very good example. ⬇️

Strategic Drone Airpower🧵
1/3
I've talked about this vulnerability in a couple of previous threads. Here is a shorter one:



Putin's decades long "Russian exceptionalism" propaganda campaign, that says WW2 was won on the Eastern Front, has made Russians incapable of seeing this.

2/3
If strategic airpower was irrelevant then. So is damage from it now. 🤦‍♂️

Here is the larger in-depth thread detailing the vulnerabilities of ex-Soviet "One-Big Factory" infrastructure (AKA gigantism) Ukraine is exploiting.

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 28
There is so much to object to here that I'm going to restate some basic design observations on the FP-5 to clarify how the Russian reflexive control data fed AI slop that is polluting public discussions of the FP-5.

FP-5 🧵
1/
1. The FP-5 Flamingo is about four times the launch weight of a BGM-109 Tomahawk (i.e. ~13,200 lb), and 2-3 times the range (i.e. ~1,620 nmi) while carrying twice the warhead mass (i.e. ~2,000 lb).

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2. The FP-5 design concept is modelled on the USAF MGM-13 Mace GLCM as Fire Point told Ukrainian military analysts - but designed with modern technology to be extremely cheap to make (claimed 1/6 the cost of a Tomahawk - likely not counting the engine cost).

3/ Image
Read 17 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 23
It's time to revisit how 992 Ukrainian drones and 10 small cruise missiles were used to saturate Russia's Moscow air defenses.

There was a lot of technology, technique & tactics involved.

Drone War 🧵
1/
The first thing that needs to be pointed out is that in 2026 Ukraine has not only replicated, but likely exceeded, the 2018 capabilities of the USAF's Stand-off Munitions Activity Center (SMAC) at at Barksdale AFB.

I've mentioned this before ⬇️
2/
In 2018 a Dallas chapter of the Association of Old Crows gave an award to SMAC & we got an open source brief of what they did to earn the award.

These guys do the evasive routing for integrated cross-service standoff munition attack profiles.

3/
Read 14 tweets

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