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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
May 18, 2024 • 8 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
Ukraine should thank Putin for invading Kharkiv Oblast.

Doing so has finally unmasked the duplicity of the Biden Administration on the use of Western weapons inside Russian territory.

It's _NO_ for ALL Western weapons in Russia, not just US weapons🧵

1/
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If you have always wondered why Ukraine's Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles haven't been used on the Kerch Straits Bridge...

...wonder no longer. The answer is "Escalation Management."

The Biden Administration's delusional fear that Russia will collapse if Ukraine wins.

2/ Image
And it isn't me saying this. It is Pres. Zelensky of Ukraine that did so.

"President Volodymyr Zelensky believes that Ukraine's partners "are afraid of Russia losing the war" and would like Kyiv "to win in such a way that Russia does not lose"...

3/
And that isn't the only thing Ukrainians are saying out loud about the Biden Administration's ongoing efforts to "save the Russian Empire from a War of Yugoslav Succession," which Biden & @JakeSullivan46 both think Russian defeat in Ukraine means.

4/
Nor are the Ukrainians the only ones saying the Hard Truths out loud.

The RAND Corporation normally sucks up to whichever Administration is in power.

Now Rand is saying all "Escalation Management" does is escalatie the risk of general war for NATO.

5/
 foreignpolicy.com/2024/05/17/ukr…
A lot of people have been confused as to why German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is talking about sending long range missile to Ukraine, given Chancellor Scholz's stand on the Taurus missile.

Her statement wasn't for Scholz.

6/
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock's statement is aimed at the Biden Administration's newly outed for all to see policy of pressuring Ukraine not to use SCALP/Storm Shadow in Russia or on the Kerch Straits Bridge.

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So now we all can see the Biden Administration's real "Escalation Management" foreign policy in the Russo-Ukrainian War is for "The Ukrainians to Win moderately" for a 1953 style Korean Armistice, without risking a collapse of the Russian Federation.🤮
8/8

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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 27
The F-35 Big/Expensive/Few Platform & Missile cult is in deep denial of this battlefield reality.

Air superiority below 2,000 feet/600 meters has been lost by crewed aircraft.

F-35's are irrelevant for the Mavic drone threat, save as a budget threat to the C-UAS procurement.
1/
The arrival of the Ukrainian Gogol-M, a 20-foot span fixed-wing aerial drone mothership, with over a 200km radius of action while carrying a payload of two 30km ranged attack drones under its wings, underlines the impact of low level airspace as a drone "avenue of approach."
2/
The Gogol-M flys low and slow, below ground based radar coverage like a helicopter.

It opens up headquarters, ground & air logistics in the operational depths to artificial intelligence aided FPV drone attacks.

3/ Image
Read 9 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 27
This is the main example of one of the most unprofessional delusions held by the US Navalist wing of the F-35 Big/Expensive/Few platform and missile cult.

Russian fiber optic FPV's have a range of 50km - over the horizon!

1/
This means things as the Russians make these FPV's from Chinese commercial drone components in six figure and soon 7 figure (millions!) numbers.

This has huge implications for the impending Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

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When China invades Taiwan, the 1st move will be occupying the small islands around Formosa (left) and making them drone, GMLRS & HQ9 SAM bases.

50 km circles around all those small islands cover almost all the invasion beaches (map right) with PLA 50km fiber optic FPV's.

3/ Image
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Read 5 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 24
It isn't just a matter of pre-2023 sniper tactics being obsolete.

Every patrolling tactic taught by the US Army Infantry and Ranger schools are obsolete when you can "just send a drone. "

1/3
Drones simply don't have ground line of sight issues like soldiers do.

Drones can see in more of the electromagnetic spectrum than humans.

And the US Army refuses to buy enough small drones (1 m +) to train their troops to survive on the drone dominated battlefield.🤢🤮

2/3
"Just send a drone" is the proper tactic for almost everything a 21st century infantryman does from patrolling, raiding enemy positions, sniping and setting up forward observation posts.

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 23
Please note that Iran _ISN'T_ shooting down IDF drones over Tehran⬇️

There are technological reasons for that.

1/2
The odds are heavily in favor of the IDF having parked Hermes drones with "Gorgon Stare" technology over Tehran to hunt Iranian senior government officials.

2/2 Image
P.S.

This is the wiki on Gorgon Stare technology.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gorgon_St…Image
Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 22
The following photo captures from WW2 bomb damage analysis documents are to calibrate people's eyes as to what to expect from the Fordow strike.

The MOP crater is going to be something called a "Camouflet" because the MOP will dig so deep before exploding.

1/6 Image
The problem with this US strike is the rock density in the Fordow area may be too much for the GBU-57/B MOP (See Grok below)

Unless there is really good intelligence showing a weakness in Fordow or...

2/6
 grok.com/share/c2hhcmQt…
...this MOP strike had several bombs with the same aim point and a timer setting for simultaneous detonation. Good results will be difficult.

WW2 testing showed hard crystallized limestone was a pain for semi-armor piercing bombs dropped from 16,000 feet to penetrate.

3/6 Image
Read 7 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 22
Well, it wasn't a TACO moment.

This US strike on the Iranian nuclear program was paddy cake.

The Iranian smart move here is screaming a lot, doing little and waiting for a Democratic US President to build nukes.

1/2 Image
The dumbest of dumb moves by the Iranians would be laying sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

That was what set off Operation Praying Mantis in the late 1980's which sank 1/2 of Iran's navy in a day.

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If the Iranians choose doing something dumb...

...US has positioned aerial assets in the Mid-East that are sufficient for a modestly large aerial bombardment effort for ~100+ tactical fighters⬇️

3/3
Read 4 tweets

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