Artur Rehi Profile picture
May 18, 2024 8 tweets 3 min read Read on X
One of the factors that influenced the success of the Russian advance in the north of the Kharkov region was the shutdown of the Starlink network. The Washington Post was told, citing the Ukrainian military, that shortly before the start of the military offensive in Kharkiv,
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Starlink terminals stopped working, leaving the defenders blind. Communication with the drones was interrupted and they had to maintain communications by phones. This is the first major failure of this kind. The cause of the failure is unknown, but it is possible that Russia
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has used new electronic warfare techniques. Elon Musk responded that the Starlink satellites were under severe pressure, but did not go into detail. At the moment, Russia's advance in the north of the Kharkiv region has slowed down greatly. The Russians continue to bomb the
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civilian population of Kharkiv. Although the Russians captured several settlements in their attack, we must understand that in a war of attrition the capture of cities does not play a big role, but what is more important is how many resources both sides spend on defense and
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attack. Ukraine is waging a defensive war and if it has to leave populated areas to preserve resources, there is no need to worry about the capture of these cities, no matter how cynical it may sound. Ukraine has already resorted to such tactics when it allowed the Russians
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to enter settlement and occupy it, in order to then destroy the invaders with artillery. After all, it is more important for the Russians to account for the capture, and it does not matter how many soldiers were spent. Also, if the attack on Kharkiv was some kind of idea to
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divert Ukrainian resources, then it did not work, because Russia itself is forced to transfer its resources from the Kupyansk and Kramatorsk directions and still they cannot take Vovchansk and have not even reached the first line of the Ukrainian defense, which is located
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several tens of kilometers from Vovchansk. However, the situation remains difficult but first panic feelings subsided. We must remember that Russia is conducting an information-military operation and its successes in the information field exceed its successes on the ground.
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More from @ArturRehi

Aug 22
Ukrainian sanctions in the form of drones are working. The fuel crisis in Russia is worsening. The most difficult situation is in Primorye, affected by the influx of tourists. The authorities in Crimea admit the situation is critical. After a series of Ukrainian strikes
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on oil refineries, they have gone into repair. Since the beginning of August alone, at least 7 Russian refineries have been attacked, four of which completely stopped operations – Novokuybyshevsk, Saratov, Volgograd, and Samara. The Ryazan refinery has lost more than half of
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its capacity. Due to sanctions and the lack of spare parts, repairing refineries is difficult. All these refineries are among the largest in the country and are key to their regions. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that the damage inflicted is
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Read 14 tweets
Aug 20
The past week can be considered a turning point in relations between the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine. Putin’s fiasco in Alaska and Zelensky’s success at the White House define the future of relations between these countries. For Trump, it is crucial to feel important and to be
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at the center of attention. This is a trait of any narcissist. Until recently, he saw Russia as a superpower, but after six months of Putin constantly wiping his feet on him, the American president became deeply disappointed. Trump still has an obsessive idea in his head:
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to end this war as quickly as possible and to gain some kind of prize and global recognition for it. Whom to negotiate with—he doesn’t care. The meetings in Alaska and at the White House were driven by the idea of trying to seat Ukraine and Russia at the negotiating table
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Read 11 tweets
Aug 15
Putin, in calling for new negotiations, is counting on Trump to pause sanctions and pressure Ukraine. This is the sole purpose of the meeting in Alaska, and once again Trump has fallen for the same old bait. While Trump delays new sanctions in the hope of striking a deal with
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dictator Putin, the EU is already working on a new sanctions package that could be introduced as early as September. During the informal meeting of EU foreign ministers in the “Gymnich” format on August 29–30 in Copenhagen—an event traditionally held every six months by the
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presiding EU member state—the 19th package of sanctions against Russia will be discussed at the ministerial level for the first time. This was revealed, under condition of anonymity, by a diplomat from one of the EU member states in Brussels who is familiar with the planned
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Read 7 tweets
Aug 13
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky rules out the possibility of withdrawing Ukrainian troops from the unoccupied part of Donetsk region as a precondition for a complete ceasefire. “We will not leave Donbas. We cannot do that. For the Russians, Donbas is a bridgehead for a
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future new offensive. A few years – and Putin will have an open path to Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions. And not only that. Also to Kharkiv. Right now, they want to give them about 9,000 square kilometers, which is about 30% of the entire Donetsk region (the size
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of the unoccupied territory – ed.), and this is a bridgehead for new aggression.” Zelensky confirmed that he referred to the Constitution during his conversation with Trump. “I am not going to surrender my country, because I have no right to do so. And the point is not that
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Read 5 tweets
Aug 13
Bad news is coming from the Pokrovsk direction, where Russian forces have broken through the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ defensive line and penetrated deep into the rear. The Russians are using small-unit tactics with groups of 3–5 men, which are difficult to track, in order to
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infiltrate behind the lines, set up ambushes, carry out sabotage operations, and sow confusion among Ukraine’s defenders. These small groups are very hard to detect, as they use random cover and cloaks to avoid thermal cameras. Their survival rate is very low—about 80% of
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the attackers are killed—but Ukraine is facing severe manpower shortages, and the defensive line has significant gaps. Fortifications are spaced hundreds of meters apart, and each may contain only a handful of soldiers. Ukraine is unable to close the breaches in the defense,
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Read 10 tweets
Aug 11
Putin is using Trump to achieve what he cannot accomplish militarily. The meeting in Alaska will most likely take place without Zelensky’s participation, because if Zelensky accepts the invitation and attends, the Russian side will refuse to take part. From Russia’s
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perspective, the Zelensky government is illegitimate, and a meeting between Putin and Zelensky would undermine that propaganda. According to insiders, Putin wants to secure control over Donbas, gain recognition of Crimea’s annexation, and achieve the removal of sanctions.
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Any territorial concessions would violate Ukraine’s constitution, and the Ukrainian government is unlikely to agree to them. Alaska was not chosen by accident—Putin fears his plane could be shot down by Ukrainians. Flying to Alaska via the North Pole offers him a route with
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Read 12 tweets

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