Thread by @Mylovanov

Zelensky says the West doesn’t want Ukraine to win. His words are careful, but the meaning is clear.

He talks about the U.S. fear of Russia loosing and thus preventing Ukraine from winning

But the implication is simple - the war will go on 1/

kyivindependent.com/zelensky-our-p…

Indeed, if Ukraine gets just enough support not to lose, Russia will be tempted to keep trying. Until Putin dies! 2/

Some might argue it is not true and U.S. is doing all it can to help Ukraine, but it is not easy. There are elections, a dysfunctional Congress etc

True, but not. That’s not the reason for why the aid to Ukraine is delayed, limited, and restricted in use 3/

Remember HIMARS? Too escalatory to give to Ukraine. ATACAMS, NASAMS, tanks, artillery, drones, F16s, Patriots… it is always the same story. Eventually Ukraine gets it but only after a long delay and tons of excuses why this isn’t possible or may provoke Russia. 4/

So, this is a clear policy, not an unfortunate coincidence of circumstances. The US wants to support Ukraine but not enough for it to win.

But then what’s the U.S. strategy about how to end the war? 5/

My sense is that there is some vague idea that eventually Putin would be willing to negotiate and then ukraine can be divided. Of course, no one will say that publicly, but behind every closed door there are signals to be “realistic”. 6/

In fact, Putin uses similar language when he talks about “the need to respect realities on the ground”. 7/

I am not saying that Russia and the US are colluding to split Ukraine. Far from it. But it’s true that both Russia and the U.S. expect Ukraine to give up some territory. Russia says this directly. The US doesn’t, but it surely acts that way by restricting Ukraine’s capabilities/

While I don’t agree with that outcome, let’s consider it seriously for a second. Imagine the U.S. wants to freeze the conflict at some contact line. 8/

Russia wants to freeze it in such a way so it can leverage it in the future, politically or militarily. It can attack again in 5 years time. Or it can hope to impose political conditions on Ukraine that will eventually turn it into Belarus. 9/

It might not succeed but it will definitely try.

What does the U.S. want? A sustainable peace. So that the problem goes away. It doesn’t care about territory or people in Ukraine, but wants the fighting to stop, on whatever terms 10/

What should happen for the fighting to stop? The contact line should stop moving. Because as long as it moves both parties are engaged and will try harder. 11/

But this requires giving Ukraine sufficient support so no matter how hard Russia tries, Ukraine can hold.

The U.S. believes it can manage this support on day to day or month to month basis. It worries that if it gives Ukraine too much support, it will win the war 12/

The fear there if that if Russia loses it can get destabilized. And that would be very scary, clear weapons, aggressive military … the U.S. certainly has a point, although I reasonably disagree with it.13/

In my view, the only way to achieve stability in the region is for Russia to loose. It has to learn that it doesn’t always win, it doesn’t always get away with whatever it does. Because otherwise it will continue to disrupt the region. 14/

Anyway, even if one were to agree with the U.S. position, the way they are going about it is wrong. There is no way they can do measured weapons delivery to hold the line. Russia will outplay them. This is exactly what is happening in Kharkiv now. 15/

My point is that the U.S. should become real and decide whether it wants Ukraine to win or not. If it does, it should give proper support. If it doesn’t, the there should be a realistic alternative to the war which will last “as long as it takes” [for Putin to die]X

If the US withdraws support, Ukraine might fall. Despite their rhetoric to support Ukraine “as long as it takes”, the U.S. politicians might not care that much. But they are wrong and they should. 2/

If Ukraine falls, Russia will be emboldened, there will be a major refugee crises from Ukraine - we will be seeing 10s of millions of people, and Russia friendly state then will border Poland. 3/

Russia will quickly turn Ukraine into a to Belarus or worse. The world will watch with horror war crimes in occupied territories. And the politicians in the West who allowed this disaster to happen will carry political responsibility.