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Karim Sadjadpour Profile picture
@ksadjadpour
May 19 • 3 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Ebrahim Raisi’s death would create a succession crisis in Iran. He and Mojtaba Khamenei are the only contenders to replace 85-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei (Mojtaba’s father). In Iran's conspiratorial political culture few will believe Raisi’s death was accidental.
Mojtaba Khamenei's anointment as Supreme Leader could trigger popular unrest. His lack of legitimacy and popularity means he’d be entirely reliant on the Revolutionary Guards to maintain order. This could hasten the regime's transition to military rule or its potential collapse.
Given Raisi's brutal history-he was a hanging judge who killed at least 5000 political prisoners-many Iranians are already toasting his potential demise. The mother of these two sisters-Mahsa and Roya Piraei-was killed while peacefully protesting in 2022.

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More from @ksadjadpour

Karim Sadjadpour Profile picture
Mar 10, 2023
1. A short thread on the Iran-Saudi normalization agreement brokered by China, reasons why each country was motivated to sign the agreement, and what to look for to determine whether it will have a meaningful and enduring impact.
wsj.com/articles/saudi…
2. What’s in it for Beijing? Simply put China wants stability in the Middle East to ensure the free flow of energy from the region. De-escalation between two regional powers and major energy producers is critical to those objectives.
3. What's in it for Tehran? Iran is deeply isolated, humiliated by months of protests, and heavily reliant on China strategically/economically. This deal lessens its isolation, gains legitimacy for the regime, and strengthens China’s regional influence at the expense of the US.
Read 9 tweets
Karim Sadjadpour Profile picture
Nov 21, 2022
1. Protestors in the city of Piranshahr, Iranian Kurdistan. Their determination is palpable. Video via @SamRasoulpour
2. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards are using combat weapons against a civilian population in Piranshahr mostly armed with rocks.
3. The Islamic Republic has inflicted disproportionate violence against Iran’s Kurdish population since the beginning of the 1979 revolution. It has never earned them support or legitimacy.
Read 4 tweets
Karim Sadjadpour Profile picture
Nov 20, 2022
1. Today, World Children's Day, the Iranian regime's deplorable treatment of minors, at home and abroad, deserves extra scrutiny.

10-year-old Kian Pirfalak, an inspiring inventor, was the latest victim. His classmates recently attended his funeral.

Kian's story isn't isolated.
2. Iran has long had the world's highest rate of executions (per capita). It has been executing minors for decades.

During the last two months of nationwide protests it has killed more than 50 minors.

3. Tehran also exports its abuse and exploitation of children beyond its borders. Iranian Foreign Minister @Amirabdolahian has openly advertised Iran's support for Houthi child soldiers in Yemen, praising them for being "effective".
Read 7 tweets
Karim Sadjadpour Profile picture
Oct 21, 2022
1. Efforts have been underway for more than a month to get Starlink terminals to Iran. One group of activists--who want to stay anonymous to protect their networks--asked me to share this video. They've already sent dozens of terminals to Iran and intend to scale up.
2. These efforts are still *very* nascent, but they have evidence the terminals are working and claim they're taking extra precautions to lessen the risks to users. Videos have also begun trickling out of Starlink terminals being used inside the country.
3. These efforts are independent of any efforts by the US government to get Starlink terminals to Iran and are in addition to, not in lieu of, other tools (including VPNs) to circumvent Iran's state censorship. The broad goal is to 'let 1000 flowers bloom' cnbc.com/2022/10/07/vpn…
Read 6 tweets
Karim Sadjadpour Profile picture
Oct 20, 2022
1. Iran's internal vulnerabilities (due to ongoing protests) and the rift in US-Saudi relations (due to a dispute over oil production) have increased the risk of another Iranian attack on Saudi Arabia/Saudi oil facilities, which the world can ill-afford.🧵 nytimes.com/2019/09/19/wor…
2. In 2019 Iran carried out, with impunity, a surprisingly precise missile and drone attack on Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil company. Although Saudi Arabia managed to quickly restore oil production, there are new reasons why Iran may try it again. reuters.com/article/us-sau…
3. A growing source of Iran-Saudi tension is the Saudi-backed, London-based, Persian-language TV station "Iran International" (@IranIntl). Its already huge audience inside Iran has expanded rapidly given their extensive coverage of Iran's ongoing protests.
Read 12 tweets
Karim Sadjadpour Profile picture
Oct 12, 2022
On @Morning_Joe I argued if the US were to revive the nuclear deal with Iran in this moment, it would constitute meddling in Iran's internal affairs by empowering an embattled, unpopular regime that is trying to violently crush a peaceful freedom movement. on.msnbc.com/3EBy2pf
Iran currently appears unable to reach an internal consensus on the nuclear deal. But if protests persist in the coming weeks/months, they may feel the need to revive the deal out of desperation. We should be clear about our interests and loyalties.
In a 1986 hearing on apartheid S Africa, then-Senator Biden rightly said America’s “loyalty is not to South Africa, it’s to South Africans.” Likewise it is Iran's people-not its gender-apartheid regime nor the JCPOA-that today deserve our foremost loyalty.
Read 4 tweets

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