Iranian President #Raisi and several senior officials were in a helicopter crash earlier today. What’s happening in #Iran and what does it mean for the future of the regime? 🧵 1/11
Iranian media reported earlier today that Raisi and several members of his administration including Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian were in a serious helicopter crash in Iran. 2/11
It is unclear if any officials have died in the crash. Search and rescue teams have suspended unsuccessful aerial searches because of bad weather. 3/11
Raisi’s potential death is significant and has long-term implications for the regime. But it would not destabilize the regime in the way that Supreme Leader #Khamenei’s death would. 4/ 11
The Iranian constitution says that First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber would temporarily assume Raisi’s responsibilities as president and that an election to replace the president permanently must be held within 50 days. 5/11
Mokhber had run the very powerful Execution of Imam Khomeini’s Order that the Supreme Leader controls and that in turn has massive economic holdings in Iran. The US sanctioned Mokhber and EIKO in January 2021. 6/11
But the vacuum caused by Raisi’s death isn’t the only issue the regime faces. Although the Supreme Leader wields ultimate decision-making authority in Iran, Raisi’s resume highlights his role as a deeply trusted member of the #IslamicRepublic. 7/11
Raisi has been considered a strong favorite to succeed Khamenei as supreme leader given Raisi’s political ascent in spite of his domestic unpopularity. 8/11
Raisi's death therefore has significant implications for supreme leader succession and Khamenei’s vision for the regime's future after Khamenei's own death. 9/11
The next several days have the potential to reshape the immediate and long-term dynamics of the regime, including supreme leader succession. Only time will tell what has happened and how Khamenei would confront such a loss. 10/11
Raisi’s death would ultimately not change the regime’s current trajectory toward more hardline and conservative domestic policies and more aggressive regional policies, however. 11/11
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