1/11 Baseless doom and gloom: war is not just a matter of quantity, but also of quality. Analysis by @joni_askola
2/11 There is a great deal of doom and gloom surrounding russia's purported army regeneration and increased resources. These assessments focus solely on quantity rather than quality. Furthermore, they place trust in russian figures, which are almost always deceitful.
3/11 The individuals discussing russia's military resurgence overlook the fact that Ukraine has substantially bolstered its armed forces during the same timeframe. As a result, Ukraine's army is now considerably more capable than it was at the beginning of the full-scale war.
4/11 russia is presently depleting its resources at a rate far exceeding its production capacity. To compensate, it is utilizing older Soviet-era resources from its stockpiles. However, this equipment is outdated and of inferior quality compared to the machinery it is replacing.
5/11 Within 18 to 24 months, russia will deplete its supply of Soviet-era resources, leading to a highly challenging predicament. It is unfeasible for russian production to ramp up sufficiently within this timeframe.
6/11 Prior to this depletion, the quality of russia's equipment will continue to decline, while Ukraine's equipment quality will improve through Western assistance. Most Western weapon systems are significantly superior to those of russia.
7/11 If wars were solely determined by quantity, Russia would have already invaded Ukraine, and the USSR would have conquered Finland in a matter of days. However, quality also plays a significant role. In the case of Ukraine, its Western weapons are of superior quality.
8/11 russia's invasion of Ukraine has been a dismal failure, as it has not succeeded in capturing any of the 23 regional capitals and special status cities that Ukraine controlled at the onset of the war.
9/11 The upcoming months will pose significant challenges as Ukraine mobilizes and trains troops, simultaneously defending the front lines, constructing defensive barriers, and awaiting the arrival of military aid.
10/11 Should Ukraine endure the next few months without substantial territorial or human losses, its situation is poised to improve by the year's end. russia's window of opportunity is gradually narrowing, and the disparity in quantity between russia and Ukraine will diminish.
1/8 Mark Rutte is, in fact, the most suitable candidate for the role of Secretary General of NATO. Take by @joni_askola
2/8 In October, Mark Rutte is scheduled to take on the role of Secretary General. His appointment stirred controversy due to the belief that appointing an Eastern European Secretary General would have been more symbolic and fair.
3/8 Kaja Kallas was considered a strong candidate for Secretary General of NATO, but some critics of Rutte's appointment hold a misconception about the role of the NATO Secretary General.
1/9 The United States warned hezbollah that it cannot restrain Israel if the escalation persists. Update by @joni_askola
2/9 Last week, while visiting Beirut, President Biden's representative Amos Hochstein informed Lebanese officials that hezbollah is mistaken in believing that the U.S. could prevent Israel from invading Lebanon if the militia persists in its attacks.
3/9 The Biden administration is deeply concerned that Israel and hezbollah may be making strategic errors as they escalate their verbal and on-the-ground conflict, all the while believing that they can prevent an all-out war.
1/4 The Biden administration is moving closer to permitting American military contractors to deploy to Ukraine. Update by @joni_askola
2/4 The Biden administration is moving closer to lifting a de facto ban on American military contractors deploying to Ukraine, as reported by CNN. This potential change is aimed at assisting the country's military in maintaining and repairing US-provided weapons systems.
3/4 The timing of this decision is rather expected, especially with the impending arrival of F16 jets in the coming weeks. This development is undoubtedly positive news for Ukraine.
Heavy fighting continues in Vovchansk and Chasovy Yar. Meanwhile, Russia continues to suffer from a shortage of manpower, although the meat storm tactics continue. A Russian war correspondent has published a video in which he filmed Russian soldiers "in a basement."
1/10
A "basement" in the occupied territories is a place of punishment. Before the full-scale invasion, Ukrainian prisoners of war and civilians were held there, tortured to extract false confessions, but now these basements are filled with Russian soldiers who refuse to go back
2/10
to the front, before being sent to penal battalions. At least 16 such special places are known. The published video shows terrible unsanitary conditions. Almost all the soldiers have untreated wounds. Sending the wounded to meat storms has been known for a long time.
3/10
Another Ukrainian development related to sea drones has become known. Ukrainian sea drones have learned to mine the sea routes of Russian ships. Thanks to this tactic, four enemy vessels were sunk. As reported in the article by The Wall Street Journal, the Russians, 1/7
frightened by the raids of sea drones, built large barriers at the entrance to the Sevastopol Bay, so the Ukrainians came up with alternative operations - the installation of sea mines. Special SeaBaby have learned to install bottom mines made of plastic, weighing about 2/7
180 kg. They are difficult to find, since they lie in the silt under the shallow water, use acoustic and electromagnetic sensors to detect the presence of the ship, causing a detonation. For 1.5 months, a team of Ukrainian special services tracked the routes of sea ships 3/7
1/11 Fighterbomber has become an unreliable source, and it is high time for people to recognize this. Update by @joni_askola
2/11 Fighterbomber claimed yesterday that russia had shot down an American drone in the Black Sea last night. However, the US has since denied this. Currently, the veracity of the incident remains uncertain, despite appearing highly improbable.
3/11 The occurrence or non-occurrence of the event does not alter the fact that Fighterbomber has become an unreliable source.