Seth Frantzman Profile picture
May 20 8 tweets 2 min read Read on X
The reports that almost 1 million people have evacuated Rafah as the IDF operation has taken place there since May 6, in the wake of the Hamas attack on Kerem Shalom...shows that it was possible to get civilians to evacuate. It also shows something else
Israel has expanded greatly the number of crossings into Gaza since March. These include Gate 96 (Netzarim corridor), the Erez Crossing and Erez West Crossing (Zikim). The US put in place the temporary pier. There are now a lot of options for aid to reach central and northern Gaza.
This comes as the Rafah crossing from Egypt remains closed. Hamas used its control of that crossing to hijack humanitarian aid and likely to sell it or control it to make people suffer. Hamas wanted to exploit suffering to prevent the battle of Rafah, so Hamas could keep control of smuggling tunnels and weapons stockpiles.
The fact that so many people left Rafah, many of them already displaced from other areas of Gaza, reduces the strain on Kerem Shalom crossing and reduces the need for the Rafah crossing which Hamas wants to return to. This can potentially be a gamechanger. The goal must be to get Hamas away from the aid, so people can have it without Hamas stealing it.
Hamas uses its "police" who partner with intl NGOs to basically be used as a kind of mafia-cartel to control aid. Hamas has done this for a decade and a half. This is how Hamas stockpiled more weapons per capita than most countries. But now is the time that this depressing cycle can end.
A lot of countries and NGOs and orgs tried to stop Israel's operation in Rafah because they wanted to keep Hamas in power. Hamas has been a huge profit center for them, controlling Gaza, and Hamas leaders got hosted by western allies in the region...a lot was invested in Hamas control of Gaza. It is all at risk now. A lot of interests who partnered with Hamas are worried that their proxy and partner won't be there tomorrow, their faucet of money they could skim off the top in Gaza will evaporate.
Imagine a transparent government of Gaza...where all the aid isn't hijacked by gunmen...but actually reaches the people, where schools don't have tunnels under them, where hospitals are not used by armed terrorists...where civilians are not shields for extremists...where people can live without the Hamas terrorist cartel that the international community saddled Gaza with.
There is a crime against humanity in Gaza. It is the crimes of Hamas and the crime of allowing Hamas to control Gaza. Too many countries and interests in the intl community committed this crime in Gaza, forcing Gazans to live under the horrors of Hamas and its endless war. The abuse must stop. Hamas must be removed. This evil must be ended and now is the opportunity to do it.

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More from @sfrantzman

May 22
A new low. Hateful extremists cut out the image of kidnapped Israeli Karina Ariev from a poster put up near her home in the capital. It's sadly too common in Jerusalem that religious extremists deface or rip down images of women on posters. This has now extended to trying to erase the images of hostages held in Gaza. While the city says it will replace the banner...there is no apparent attempt to ever arrest the perpetrators.

Its bad enough that so many women IDF soldiers were kidnapped on October 7 and then left in Gaza for almost eight months now, it's vile that people deface the posters of them in Israel.
This happened as new footage showing the kidnapping of the women is to be released this evening. It is a continuing reminder that the state has not rescued its own people in Gaza and basically abandoned them there. The IDF has had the time to go into most areas of Gaza, leave them and then go back to many of them several times but not actually find the hostages because rescuing them was apparently never a priority and doing a deal was never a priority. This is because the same leadership and command structure of Oct. 7 is in charge and they haven't changed their outlook over time.
The worst thing is that the authorities knew after the first hostage deal that the hostages were being abused, they heard this from testimony...but rather than increasing the urgency to free the rest of the hostages, including unarmed female soldiers who had been abandoned at their base of Nahal Oz...the authorities actually slowed down the Gaza campaign and put less urgency on the people held in Gaza.
Read 13 tweets
May 20
Seeing some of the reactions against the ICC decision my sense is that it’s going to be hard to proceed because its decision to try to indict both sides means that it will lose a lot of support.
What that means is that countries that back Israel, like the U.S. will not accept this. At the same time it seems that all the backers of Hamas won’t either. Consider the fact that people like Hamas leader Haniyeh don’t get hosted in Doha unless they have widespread powerful support around the world.
How would the case proceed if most of the world opposes parts of it and is likely to want the whole thing dismissed? There are a lot of voices and countries that are going to see in one part of the case or another a precedent that is unacceptable. There are those who predict that the ICC has doomed itself here biting off too much.
Read 4 tweets
May 20
After Raisi's death I began to look back on articles I wrote about his role in transforming Iran. I found that I had articles going back to before he was president. A few takeaways from the articles
Raisi was a champion of Iran's indigenous production of weapons and other technology. This didn't pan out obviously in the helicopter crash, but overall he did seek to advance Iran's ability to make its own drones and other systems and not rely as heavily on importing technology. This enabled Iran to create a real production line for the Shahed 136, not just make a few of them.
Raisi was a major supporter of ties with Russia and China. He believed Iran's future was in the east, not dealing with the West. He didn't care about reviving the "Iran Deal" or going to Vienna to glad-hand...he wanted to encourage a new regional and new world order of China-Russia-Iran.
Read 17 tweets
May 20
Yesterday Israel's IDF released two videos that Hamas made in Gaza in October. The videos were found by the IDF in "raw footage filmed by Hamas for their psychological terror videos." The videos show 8-year-old Ela Elyakim 15-year-old sister, Dafna Elyakim,
"Ela’s family asked us to share it with the world to expose Hamas's terror, to expose Hamas's cruelty, to expose Hamas's barbarism," the IDF noted.

Some thoughts on these videos
Why didn't Hamas release these videos? Hamas made the videos in October, apparently soon after they launched the genocidal attack on Israel. Hamas kidnapped more than 250 people. The group would have made the videos but also been consulting with their leadership abroad. Hamas is hosted in Doha, a western ally and Hamas is backed by Russia, Turkey, Iran, China and others.
It's likely that even as the Hamas cruel genocidal members in Gaza made the videos, that their backers and handlers abroad advised Hamas it might be counterproductive to release videos of children being forced to pose for hostage videos.
Read 21 tweets
May 19
Another example of the Hamas crime against humanity. Hamas, which is backed by Ankara, Doha, Tehran, Moscow, carried out the Oct. 7 massacre knowing it would spark a huge war and Hamas didn’t care about the children of Gaza when it did this. Hamas illegally plunged the kids into a war that they had no say in. Hamas genociders didn’t ask the kids, and their billionaire leadership that relaxes abroad didn’t ask or find educational solutions.
The biggest crime here is that Hamas is backed by two western allies. They host the Hamas leaders and they backed Oct 7. They collaborated to cause this horrid war and deny children in Gaza a right to an education. While Hamas leaders all profit and benefit in Doha…the kids suffer. The chauvinist male leadership of Hamas relaxes and takes away the future of kids
It’s worth noting that Hamas illegally took over Gaza in 2007 and western NGOs partnered with it…instead of opposing it…empowering this crime against humanity and endless war the poor people of Gaza have been stuck with since Hamas took over
Read 5 tweets
May 17
It will be interesting if we ever learn the timing of when the tunnels to Egypt from Rafah, or the smuggling began to increase...

In 2012 Hamas leaders moved to Qatar. That was when Morsi of the MB was running Egypt. At the time it was assumed that the MB and groups like it would sweep the region in the wake of the Arab Spring and extremists exploiting the "spring" with support from Doha and Ankara.
By 2013 Sisi was in charge in Egypt, and one thing that he wanted to stop was the insurgency in Sinai. It took years to do that. Hamas in Gaza had exploited the chaos in Sinai and also chaos in Libya and elsewhere to benefit. There was a conflict in 2012 and 2014.
Israel and Egypt security ties related to the threat of ISIS and other extremists in Sinai were positive ties. We know that Egypt was willing to rethink regional strategy at the time, it was concerned about regional chaos, it even continued low level ties to the Syrian regime
Read 9 tweets

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