I am not an authorized person or official representative to make statements on behalf of the military or the entire country, but I want to share the concerns expressed by many on the frontlines, from privates to colonels. They often ask me: where is the promised aid?
🧵Thread:
2/ Considering that I talk to many analysts and experts worldwide, many of my friends and acquaintances hope I can provide them with comprehensive knowledge and answers in private. However, the truth is, I don't have an answer.
3/ I might criticize my President for his mistakes, but he's right on multiple issues. One of them is foreign aid— it's too little, too late. It causes an effect that I coined as the "vaccination effect," where small weapon deliveries don't tip the balance but let the enemy adapt
4/ This situation also creates an environment where battlefield failures are blamed either entirely on the US for not providing enough aid or on the Ukrainian government for poor or delayed wartime political decisions, such as delayed mobilization or lack of fortifications.
5/ At this point, it's not uncommon for me to hear theories suggesting that the West, especially the US, is deliberately withholding aid to force Ukraine into negotiations. It's also believed that the US influences European partners, causing delays in aid from Europe as well.
6/ Whether I agree with these theories or not is irrelevant. What's more concerning is that such narratives are present among Ukrainian soldiers and officers, who do not understand why they can't engage Russian forward bases and concentrations of forces with the provided weapons
7/ One could argue that it's not the US's responsibility to provide more aid to Ukraine However, if that's the case, then the leaders of the free world should be transparent about it: "This war has made you a burden, and you should handle it on your own from here"
8/ Once more, I may partially agree, fully agree, or disagree with this sentiment. I aim to transmit these sentiments I've heard from dozens of people. The strategic miscalculations of our leadership don't excuse our partners from their previous commitments and transparency.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Yesterday, The Economist published an article stating that, according to military plans shared with them, Russian forces aimed to get within artillery range of Kharkiv within 72 hours and were probing to see if they could partially encircle the city. Here is why I am skeptical:
2/ First and foremost, if you examine the composition of forces Russia has used in this direction, the core of the advance consisted of motor rifle regiments with limited vehicle presence. These units were advancing in the form of dispersed small tactical groups on foot mostly
3/ Any deep and swift advance would require mechanized units ready to exploit breaches in defenses. Considering the article's claim that Russian forces had 72 hours to complete their task, the absence of a capable force to execute such a strike is rather puzzling.
The frontline situation remains challenging. Russian forces intensified attacks in the Bakhmut area and advanced tactically in the Kharnohorivka and Kharkiv areas. Despite this, the frontline remains relatively stable
🧵Thread
2/ Chasiv Yar
Despite initial successes in the assault on Chasiv Yar, including reaching and occasionally crossing the canal with small groups, the Russians failed to establish a foothold. Lately, they've increased the use of armored fighting vehicles to advance.
3/ The situation south of Bakhmut is more complex. Russians attempted to advance toward Klischiivka with frequent and large assaults. While most of these attacks have been repelled, it's unlikely that these attempts will cease soon, posing a continued risk to Klishchiivka
Frontelligence Insight conducted an initial Battle Damage Assessment of strikes on Belbek Airfield in Crimea on May 15th and 16th. This analysis is based on mid-resolution images taken on May 16th
Before continuing, please like, share, and follow to aid with visibility. 🧵Thread
2/Three large scorch marks are visible in the central part of the airfield: two on the military jet apron and one in the fuel depot area. The exact diameter of these marks cannot be determined due to low resolution, but they appear to be approximately over 30m in size.
3/ The imagery from July 2023 confirms that the apron was used to host military jets. Due to the resolution limitations, we cannot determine whether any aircraft were hit or destroyed, nor can we assess the level of damage, but we can conclude that missiles did reach the apron.
There has been a controversy surrounding the situation in the northern area of Kharkiv Oblast, invaded on May 10th. One of the primary points of contention has been the alleged absence of fortifications. But is it so? 🧵Thread:
Before proceeding, please like and share
2/ Given that many of these areas are now under Russian control, sharing some satellite images is appropriate. From these images, you can see fortified and communication trenches in areas near Krasne. Some of these are older Russian positions, while others were built in 2023
3/ While it's true that the placement of some of these trenches might appear unconventional at first glance, I refrain from making comments without knowledge of the defense plan for the area. Trenches can serve various purposes - distraction, communication, defenses, etc.
Overnight, Russian infantry, backed by armored vehicles, entered Kharkiv oblast from Belgorod area, using small tactical units. Frontelligence Insight had previously cautioned about this scenario. Here's what we know about it🧵:
(Before proceeding, please like and share)
2/ The capture of border villages like Strilecha, Krasne, Pylne, and Borysivka isn't unexpected. It's an anticipated maneuver to divert Ukrainian resources from the main Russian offensive in Donbas. Considering manpower shortages, Ukraine will be forced to redeploy some personnel
3/ Many question how Russian forces crossed the border so quickly. The answer is simple — the border is a grey zone heavily surveilled and, hence doesn't have defensive structures. Instead, the defensive lines are positioned deeper within Ukrainian territory.
May 2nd updates on frontline developments from the Frontelligence Insight, including the information about a potential Russian offensive in the Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts
Before proceeding, please like and share to aid with visibility, as sometimes we get less visibility
🧵Thread
2/ After successes in the Ocheretyne area, Russian forces now have slightly more than 10 kilometers of ground between them and the T0504 highway, which connects Kostyantynivka and Pokrovsk. However, another potential threat is emerging from the northward-leading road.
3/ The Russian expansion into Arkhangel's'ke widens their range of possibilities and complicates Ukrainian efforts to establish a cohesive defensive system across such a broad area, particularly given the understaffing of many brigades.