Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Vovchansk, Kreminna, Chasiv Yar, and Donetsk City.
2/ Russian forces did not make any confirmed advances north of Kharkiv City near Lyptsi amid continued fighting on May 21.
Geolocated footage published on May 18 shows that Russian forces have advanced further into Starytsya (southwest of Vovchansk).
3/ Russian forces recently made a confirmed advance along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. Geolocated footage published on May 21 indicates that Russian forces advanced southeast of Makiivka (northwest of Kreminna).
4/ Russian milbloggers continued to criticize the Russian MoD for its May 20 claim that Russian forces seized Bilohorivka (south of Kreminna). Several Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces have not seized Bilohorivka.
5/ Russian sources claimed that Russian forces made marginal advances south of Siversk (northeast of Bakhmut), but ISW has not observed visual evidence confirming these claims.
6/ Russian forces recently advanced in southern and central Klishchiivka (southeast of Chasiv Yar) and continued offensive operations in the Chasiv Yar direction.
7/ Russian sources claimed that Russian forces seized Netaylove (west of Avdiivka) and continued offensive operations near Avdiivka on May 21.
8/ Russian forces recently marginally advanced southwest of Donetsk City. Geolocated footage published on May 21 shows that Russian forces advanced southwest of Novomykhailivka and in eastern Paraskoviivka (both southwest of Donetsk City). isw.pub/UkrWar052224
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
NEW: The Kremlin is pursuing a concerted effort to remove senior Russian defense officials and has likely expanded this effort to senior officers commanding Russian combat operations in Ukraine. 🧵(1/4)
2/ The Kremlin is likely using the guise of corruption charges as an excuse to hide the real reasons for ousting specific individuals from the MoD who have fallen from favor, as ISW has recently assessed.
Special Report: How Delays in Western Aid Gave Russia the Initiative 🧵(1/6)
Ukraine and the West have defeated a months-long Russian effort to persuade the West to abandon Ukraine and set conditions to collapse Ukrainian defenses.
2/ But recent months have shown Russia that morale is the center of gravity for Ukraine and the West, and Russian efforts to convince the West to abandon Ukraine are not over.
3/ The weakening of Western morale and support for Ukraine quickly expressed itself on the battlefield and created conditions that convinced Russia that operationally significant gains were possible.
NEW: The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) proposed on May 21 that the Russian government reassess Russia’s maritime borders in the Baltic Sea so that these borders “correspond to the modern geographical situation.” 🧵(1/4)
2/ The Russian MoD produced a since-deleted document proposing that the Russian government should reassess the 1985 maritime borders in the Gulf of Finland because these borders were based on outdated “small-scale nautical navigation maps” developed in the mid-20th century.
3/ Kremlin and Russian MoD officials denied on May 22 that Russia is planning to change the Russian maritime border, but invertedly implied that the Russian government is considering undertaking some “security” measures in the Baltic Sea.
House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair @RepMcCaul posterized ISW–@criticalthreats's map of Russian military and security services bases in the Russian Federation within the range of US weapons for today's appearance before the committee of Secretary of State Antony Blinken. 1/4
2/ The bold, outermost line shows the maximum range of ATACMS (300km); the solid line before that shows the maximum range of the mid-range ATACMS the US has provided to Ukraine (170km); and the dotted, innermost line shows the maximum range of HIMARS (77km).
The shaded parts of northeastern Ukraine represent Ukrainian territory in range of glide bombs launched from Russian airspace (60km).
3/ "[What the Russians] are doing is lining up all of their artillery and rockets and missiles just across the Ukraine border that they then use to attack Ukrainians. However, the administration has restricted [Ukraine's] arms use so that Ukraine cannot defend itself and fire back at Russia." — Chair McCaul
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky indicated that the limited Russian offensive in northern Ukraine is achieving its goal of drawing attention away from intense Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine. (1/4)
2/ Russian forces recently intensified their efforts to seize the operationally significant town of Chasiv Yar west of Bakhmut as the tempo of operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast decreased, highlighting how the northern Kharkiv Oblast effort aims to draw and fix Ukrainian forces and create opportunities for Russian forces elsewhere in the theater.
3/ As ISW has consistently reported, Russian forces' most immediate prospect for operationally significant gains remains the Chasiv Yar direction, as seizing Chasiv Yar would enable Russian forces to set conditions to attack part of a "fortress belt" of cities forming the backbone of Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast defenses.
NEW: The Kremlin continues to time its nuclear saber-rattling to coincide with major policy discussions in the West as part of a Kremlin reflexive control campaign to influence Western decision-makers. 🧵(1/6)
2/ The Russian MoD claimed on May 21 that missile elements of the Southern Military District began the first stage of non-strategic (tactical) nuclear weapons exercises. The MoD claimed that Russian Aerospace Forces will also exercise with Iskander and Kinzhal missiles.
3/ A prominent Kremlin-awarded milblogger explicitly tied Russian tactical nuclear weapons exercises to Kremlin efforts to influence Western decision-making – particularly targeting the recent discussions about the restrictions on Ukraine's use of Western-provided weapons...