Thread by @emilkastehelmi

Here in Finland, the last 24 hours have been geopolitically unusual.

Reports from Russia suggested a unilateral desire to modify their maritime borders in the Gulf of Finland and near Kaliningrad. The Finnish government learned about this through the media. 1/🧵

The government tried to get more information, as the Russians didn't inform Finland.

Suddenly, Russia reversed its previous stance, and there was no more ambitions to check or move the borders. The Finnish politicians assured that there's no drama involved. However... 2/

This incident needs to be put into context. Why did Russia suddenly do this?

Russia is a dictatorship that views Finland as a hostile country. In the recent years, it has conducted several operations against Finland, aiming to undermine security or societal functions. 3/

Examples of Russian attacks against Finland include hybrid operations using weaponized migration at the border, presumed destruction of critical energy infrastructure in the Baltic Sea, electronic warfare like GPS jamming, and various cyber-attacks. 4/

Changes to the boundaries of maritime areas are not exceptional per se, they were last made between Finland and Russia in 2017.

However, this time, there are good reasons to interpret Russian actions primarily as provocations. 5/

Russia did not inform Finnish leadership or authorities of its plans in any way. This was done most likely because Russia wanted to see how Finland reacts. Russia did not publish additional information of its goals, even though such a sensitive issue would have required it. 6/

Confusion was maintained on purpose.

Russia could have published maps and coordinates of the border changes it planned, but they let the unclear situation continue. Without further explanation, the officials then removed the documents about the subject from the web. 7/

Overall, this was not ordinary diplomatic interaction but deliberate provocation, a calculated maneuver.

Perhaps Russia wanted to signal that it does not fear the West, and that Nato membership doesn't mean a country is safe from arbitrary territorial demands. 8/

The West can indeed be seen as weak. In Ukraine, the West repeatedly bows to Russia's red lines and is willing to indirectly sacrifice tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers out of fear of escalation. The Kremlin laughs at the cowards and escalates further elsewhere. 9/

Russia constantly wants to test the Western boundaries. It is interested in how far it can push the provocations and how the West reacts to this. Metaphorically, it's about seeing how deep it can push the bayonet before hitting steel. 10/

Steel could be offered to Russia currently in Ukraine. Actions in Ukraine affects how Russia sees the West in other areas too. However, the West has chosen a path where it is still debating whether Western long-range weapons can be used to strike Russian territory. 11/

To defeat the armed forces of Russia, Ukraine would need Western soldiers on its soil, but but this idea alone causes confused and unclear positions from politicians.

If an aggressive dictatorship didn’t occasionally slap such an opponent in the face, it would be a wonder. 12/

Some peculiar comments emerged from the maritime border issue.

For example, the Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, Kimmo Kiljunen, said that it cannot be in Russia's interest to acquire a troublesome NATO neighbor instead of a good neighborly relationship. 13/

He is talking about the same Russia for whose hostile actions a new border law is being drafted.

Many politicians said that decisions are only made on the basis of facts, and more info is needed. This was apparently meant to be a reassuring statement. In reality it wasn't. 14/

The absence of facts and information, especially in this context, is not a normal situation, but a deliberate act of Russia. It's an effort to control the information space and cause further confusion. The politicians should understand this. 15/

And how did Russia comment on this?

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied to that the maritime border project was political but noted that "the increased level of tension and confrontation requires appropriate actions by Russia to ensure security". 16/

Russia doesn't have any immediate tools to go further with this. It seems they got the reaction and didn't continue with further claims.

However, I'm certain they will try other provocations in the future. 17/17