🚨 Let the games begin — China launches exercise Joint Sword 2024A, surrounding Taiwan from all directions
Thread with everything you need to know + tracking live updates:
Thread with everything you need to know + tracking live updates:
The Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) launched joint military exercise "JOINT SWORD 2024A" — surrounding Taiwan on 23 May.
This news follows the largest ADIZ violation of the year last week:
This news follows the largest ADIZ violation of the year last week:
https://twitter.com/ianellisjones/status/1790551159695892961
The PLA drills are being conducted in the Taiwan Strait & to the north, south, & east of Taiwan Island, & around the frontline islands of Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, & Dongyin.
Chinese media reports the exercise will be held from 23-24 May & focuses on “joint sea-air combat-readiness patrols, joint seizure of comprehensive battlefield control, & joint precision strikes on key targets.”
https://twitter.com/osintnw/status/1793492271129862464
Joint Sword 2024A involves the “patrol of ships & planes closing in on areas around the island & integrated operations inside & outside the [first] island chain to test joint real combat capabilities.”
https://twitter.com/jaimeocon1/status/1793432052140048507
The Chinese-Fujian Coast Guard conducted a “comprehensive law enforcement drill” in waters off the islands of Wuqiu & Dongyin.
Kinmen also in the crosshairs
https://twitter.com/ianellisjones/status/1789814803935969715
Response from Taiwan:
https://twitter.com/mondefense/status/1793486848574345488
Timing coincides with a separate round of drills in the South China Sea that was announced yesterday:
https://twitter.com/ianellisjones/status/1792980986218578028
Context:
- Big news but doesn’t mean an invasion or blockade is likely or imminent
- Scheduled for 2 days but “A” implies a “B” may follow
- Big drills like this are not uncommon & have happened before around major political events
- Analysts anticipated a response like this to Taiwan’s presidential inauguration, & the weather is better this time of year
- Too early to understand the size & scope compared to previous operations
- Lots of bad info so be careful who & what you trust
- Big news but doesn’t mean an invasion or blockade is likely or imminent
- Scheduled for 2 days but “A” implies a “B” may follow
- Big drills like this are not uncommon & have happened before around major political events
- Analysts anticipated a response like this to Taiwan’s presidential inauguration, & the weather is better this time of year
- Too early to understand the size & scope compared to previous operations
- Lots of bad info so be careful who & what you trust
I’ll be writing about stuff like this here (launching end of the month):
New from Chinese media:
- Designed to surround Taiwan from both the east & the west, the exercises display the PLA's strike capability across all directions without any blind spots, forming a situation where the island is pinned down from both sides
- To the east, joint forces organized to carry out sea & land assault drills
-First time that Chinese Coast Guard vessels have entered the waters around Wuqiu & Dongyin
- Designed to serve as strong deterrence & warning, destroying the notion of so-called restricted waters imposed by Taiwan
- Feature an integrated plan covering the main & outlying islands, & employing the acts of destroying, trapping & blocking in one move
- Combat alert patrols surround the island, with warships & warplanes closing in on multiple locations only steps away from its coastlines, effectively pressuring the island's space for military defense
- Designed to surround Taiwan from both the east & the west, the exercises display the PLA's strike capability across all directions without any blind spots, forming a situation where the island is pinned down from both sides
- To the east, joint forces organized to carry out sea & land assault drills
-First time that Chinese Coast Guard vessels have entered the waters around Wuqiu & Dongyin
- Designed to serve as strong deterrence & warning, destroying the notion of so-called restricted waters imposed by Taiwan
- Feature an integrated plan covering the main & outlying islands, & employing the acts of destroying, trapping & blocking in one move
- Combat alert patrols surround the island, with warships & warplanes closing in on multiple locations only steps away from its coastlines, effectively pressuring the island's space for military defense
First look — video opens with a shot of PLAN Jiangkai ll-class frigate CNS Nantong (533)
https://twitter.com/ianellisjones/status/1793521345026044314
New from the PLA:
“Today, the air force in the Eastern Theater Command dispatched dozens of fighters to systematically patrol around the island & cruise around the outer islands. After arriving in the mission airspace, all types of fighters rely on joint intelligence support & flexibly take various tactical actions to reach the patrol around Taiwan Island.”
“Today, the air force in the Eastern Theater Command dispatched dozens of fighters to systematically patrol around the island & cruise around the outer islands. After arriving in the mission airspace, all types of fighters rely on joint intelligence support & flexibly take various tactical actions to reach the patrol around Taiwan Island.”
New: Taiwan reported 49 Chinese PLA aircraft operating around Taiwan, with 35 entering its air defense zone — the largest violation of 2024. Revised map to reflect flight paths.
A few notes on China’s 3 aircraft carriers, which I included in the first version:
- China’s newest & most advanced carrier, CNS Fujian (18), just got underway for its 2nd round of sea trials. Since it hasn’t been commissioned yet, I removed to avoid confusion
- CNS Liaoning (16) is operating in the Bohai Sea as of 21 May & recently completed sea trials. I consider it active & available
- CNS Shandong (17) was in port as of 16 May but hasn’t been spotted since, & could participate in the exercises
High-level the goal was to show that for the first time ever, 3 Chinese carriers were operating or available. But it’s Liaoning or Shandong that would likely be involved in the drills.
A few notes on China’s 3 aircraft carriers, which I included in the first version:
- China’s newest & most advanced carrier, CNS Fujian (18), just got underway for its 2nd round of sea trials. Since it hasn’t been commissioned yet, I removed to avoid confusion
- CNS Liaoning (16) is operating in the Bohai Sea as of 21 May & recently completed sea trials. I consider it active & available
- CNS Shandong (17) was in port as of 16 May but hasn’t been spotted since, & could participate in the exercises
High-level the goal was to show that for the first time ever, 3 Chinese carriers were operating or available. But it’s Liaoning or Shandong that would likely be involved in the drills.
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