Thread by @HighMarsed

1/ I have recently been investigating why the share of T-72 losses seems to have decreased over the course of the war. The reason for this might be, that there are very few remaining T-72B (and modifications) left in storage. Further explanantion in this thread⬇️

2/ Below you can see a chart showing the share T-72s among the tank losses recorded by Oryx. I got the data from raptorama7 on the @projectowlosint Discord. Although the decline has slowed over time a general decrease can be observed.

3/ Looking closer at the tank storage bases I observed that most spots where I found T-72 (or modifications) have already been emptied. For example these 68 tanks at the 2544th.

4/ Another example are these 75 tanks at the 349th which at least partially consisted of T-72B/B Obr.1989.

5/ Russia did not have many T-72B (and modifications) in visible storage at the start of the invasion and they have removed all of them from the spots where I could clearly identify them. The remaining storage consists mostly of T-72A/Ural which have not been removed as much.

6/ The only exception to this is the 1311th base which mostly held T-72B/T-72B Obr.1989 when the war started and there are likely still more than 200 left. In my opinion these are likely being held back for upgrades or spare parts.

7/ Since most of the T-72B/T-72B Obr. 1989 are gone from storage I think it is likely that Russia is currently only bringing upgraded or previously damaged tanks of this type to the front, rather than T-72B/T-72B Obr. 1989 from storage.

8/ Russia has so far chosen to replace their excess T-72 losses mostly with T-80B/BVs from storage but also some reactivated T-62s and newly produced T-90Ms, as opposed to using their (still sizable) number of T-72A/Ural, which resulted in the decrease of T-72 share in losses.

9/ Interestingly an increase in T-72A/Ural could indicate that the T-80B/BV stocks are finally getting depleted, likely accompanied by a relative increase in T-90M and T-62 share of the losses. For now T-72A/Ural are still rather rare among the T-72 losses.

https://x.com/verekerrichard1/status/1790461001202012642/photo/1

10/ @CovertCabal and I will do an updated count of the tank numbers, once enough up to date satelite imagery is available, but so far only half of the bases have recent footage. The update will maybe also include some improvements to the identifications.