Institute for the Study of War Profile picture
May 24 4 tweets 2 min read Read on X
NEW: The Kremlin is pursuing a concerted effort to remove senior Russian defense officials and has likely expanded this effort to senior officers commanding Russian combat operations in Ukraine. 🧵(1/4)Image
2/ The Kremlin is likely using the guise of corruption charges as an excuse to hide the real reasons for ousting specific individuals from the MoD who have fallen from favor, as ISW has recently assessed.
3/ Official Kremlin statements and milblogger speculation about the arrests and command changes signal that more senior officers could face removal. Image
4/ Russian milbloggers largely celebrated the arrests of Russian MoD officials they have claimed were inept and speculated about possible additional removals of senior commanders and officials.

More in our latest campaign assessment: isw.pub/UkrWar052324
Image

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Institute for the Study of War

Institute for the Study of War Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @TheStudyofWar

May 26
Russian forces continue to leverage their sanctuary in Russian airspace to strike Kharkiv City to devastating effect, likely as part of efforts to depopulate the city and demoralize Ukrainians. 🧵(1/5)
Image
2/ The Russian use of precision-guided bombs against civilian areas in Kharkiv City indicates that Russia likely intends for these strikes to scare Ukrainians into leaving the city.
3/ Russian forces have been heavily targeting Kharkiv City with missile strikes and glide bombs – often FAB and KAB bombs modified with glide modules frequently equipped with guidance systems – in recent weeks in part to force residents to flee.
Read 5 tweets
May 26
NEW: Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that Ukrainian forces are increasingly contesting the tactical initiative in northern Kharkiv Oblast and characterized Russian operations in the area as defensive... 🧵(1/8)Image
2/ ...although Russian forces are likely attempting to bring the Northern Grouping of Forces closer to its reported planned end strength before possibly intensifying offensive operations in the area.
3/ Russian forces launched their offensive operation into northern Kharkiv Oblast with limited manpower and have yet to commit significant reserves to the area, leading to a decreasing tempo of Russian advances and offensive operations.
Read 8 tweets
May 24
For the past seven months, Russia has been conducting offensive operations in Ukraine to persuade the United States and the West to abandon Ukraine and set conditions to collapse Ukraine's defenses. 🧵(1/5)


Image
Image
Image
2/ Russian forces have conducted offensive operations since Fall 2023 that aimed to convince the West to abandon its commitment to Ukraine and prolonged US debates about security assistance likely convinced the Kremlin that its efforts had partially succeeded.
3/ Continued delays in US and Western assistance set conditions for Russian forces to make more significant gains on the battlefield than they were able to previously make. The Russian military likely concluded that they would be able to collapse the Ukrainian frontline.
Read 5 tweets
May 23
Special Report: How Delays in Western Aid Gave Russia the Initiative 🧵(1/6)

Ukraine and the West have defeated a months-long Russian effort to persuade the West to abandon Ukraine and set conditions to collapse Ukrainian defenses.Image
2/ But recent months have shown Russia that morale is the center of gravity for Ukraine and the West, and Russian efforts to convince the West to abandon Ukraine are not over.
3/ The weakening of Western morale and support for Ukraine quickly expressed itself on the battlefield and created conditions that convinced Russia that operationally significant gains were possible.
Read 6 tweets
May 23
NEW: The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) proposed on May 21 that the Russian government reassess Russia’s maritime borders in the Baltic Sea so that these borders “correspond to the modern geographical situation.” 🧵(1/4)Image
2/ The Russian MoD produced a since-deleted document proposing that the Russian government should reassess the 1985 maritime borders in the Gulf of Finland because these borders were based on outdated “small-scale nautical navigation maps” developed in the mid-20th century. Image
3/ Kremlin and Russian MoD officials denied on May 22 that Russia is planning to change the Russian maritime border, but invertedly implied that the Russian government is considering undertaking some “security” measures in the Baltic Sea. Image
Read 4 tweets
May 22
House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair @RepMcCaul posterized ISW–@criticalthreats's map of Russian military and security services bases in the Russian Federation within the range of US weapons for today's appearance before the committee of Secretary of State Antony Blinken. 1/4 Image
2/ The bold, outermost line shows the maximum range of ATACMS (300km); the solid line before that shows the maximum range of the mid-range ATACMS the US has provided to Ukraine (170km); and the dotted, innermost line shows the maximum range of HIMARS (77km).

The shaded parts of northeastern Ukraine represent Ukrainian territory in range of glide bombs launched from Russian airspace (60km).Image
3/ "[What the Russians] are doing is lining up all of their artillery and rockets and missiles just across the Ukraine border that they then use to attack Ukrainians. However, the administration has restricted [Ukraine's] arms use so that Ukraine cannot defend itself and fire back at Russia." — Chair McCaulImage
Image
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(