Crémieux Profile picture
May 25 15 tweets 5 min read Read on X
2024 is the hottest year on record, and it's been hotter than 2023 in part because of a global ban on shipping fuels containing sulfur dioxide.

Problem: SO2 causes acid rain, but it cools the globe. How can we just stay cool?

A new company might have found the solution.

🧵Image
Acid rain has been on the decline for many years, but in order to finally put the problem to rest, it'll be crucial to knock out sulfur dioxide emissions from shipping.

Globally, those emissions have been concentrated in these boxed-in regions where ships go to-and-fro. Image
When the International Maritime Organization 2020 regulation went into effect, roughly 80% of sulfur dioxide emissions from international shipping went away overnight. Image
If those sulfur emissions weren't stopped, sulfate aerosols would have acted to change the Earth's energy balance, cooling it down.

Think of this like sunscreen for the planet. Image
Because shipping-related emissions were spread out over so wide an area, their cooling effect was pretty sizable despite being only a fraction of global sulfur emissions. Image
The resulting rise in global temperatures when these went away inspired @ASong408 to think:

How can we keep the cooling while doing without the acid rain?

Watch this video.
What you just witnessed was a balloon containing sulfur dioxide.

You just witnessed a stratospheric aerosol injection, AKA, a controlled sulfur release in the stratosphere.

This part is critical: the stratosphere.Image
The reason the stratosphere is so critical is that, if you release sulfur dioxide up there, it distributes widely and makes minimal acid rain.

There's no weather that far up, so there's nothing to bring it back down right away!
Because there's nothing to bring the sulfur dioxide (+/as byproducts) back down from so far up, you can also consider this "sunscreen" extra long-lasting.

In other words, stratospherically-injected sulfur dioxide has a long "residence time."
The residence time isn't forever, it's a few years.

So in order to ensure the world doesn't face an acid rain problem, the release has to be done in controlled amounts.

Luckily, modest amounts meet our goals: they cool Earth, stabilize her climate, and produce minimal acid rain
The reason this works so well is that, when the sulfur is distributed so high up, it does better at cooling.

Accordingly, we can continue to fight sulfur dioxide emissions on the ground while moving smaller amounts into the stratosphere to keep our planet cool. Image
That's what @ASong408's company does, and, man does it work.

To hammer in just how well it works, check out these calculations:Image
If you want to learn more, you can go check out Andrew's guest post on my blog. There's a lot more info there, so I thoroughly recommend you give it a read.

Link: cremieux.xyz/p/from-polluti…
And if you're already sold and you want to start launching sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere to make the planet cooler, here's a link so you can do that too:



(One balloon = 38,636 trees worth of carbon offset.)makesunsets.com/products/join-…
Other sources:







(Note: I have no financial interest in this. I just want a cooler planet and I'm a true believer.) climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/…
reddit.com/r/environmenta…
carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-l…
Image

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More from @cremieuxrecueil

Jun 28
A review of the 23,551 randomized clinical trials in the Cochrane Database suggests that power is generally very low.

- "Significant" effects are usually overestimates
- "Nonsignificant effects" are frequently important
- Contradictory studies often disagree due to noise Image
The modal study achieving significance has too little power to accept any reasonable, non-extreme effect size. Hence exaggeration.

The modal study failing to achieve significance is so weak that large effects won't tend to be statistically significant. Hence erroneous failures.
When studies fail to replicate, a common reason is likely to be that the replications just weren't powered for it. Hence a potential unreal replication crisis.

The situation is decidedly bad.

Simply put: if clinical trials are this poor, imagine the state of clinical guidance.
Read 5 tweets
Jun 28
Proponents of environmental theories of group differences regularly treat open sharing of code and data like their biggest fear

A session at the Behavior Genetics Assn. meeting today included the argument that hereditarians have weaponized transparency (i.e., doing good science)
It has always been true that hereditarians have been more into doing science correctly, because they are generally the sorts of people who want to know if they're right, so they demand tests.
Their opponents, on the other hand, promote ignorance, make incoherent arguments, and mislead, with intent. People like Kamin and Lewontin used to be open about misleading others. People like Turkheimer now simply act like scientific discovery is impossible, without real reason.
Read 10 tweets
Jun 27
The whole "nanny dog" thing is made up and there is no historical evidence that pit bulls were ever bred to be stewards or friends to children.

The evidence for that myth is basically 'someone said it on Facebook.' Image
Even many sources that are favorable towards pit bulls or active promoters of them will occasionally admit there's no real basis for the "nanny dog" claim.

Example 1: web.archive.org/web/2024022709…
Image
Example 2: (I know the "loyal and loving demeanor" claim is false. I am posting this for the admission of myth.) web.archive.org/web/2024022505…
Image
Read 8 tweets
Jun 24
I've seen some people comment that some Italians and Irishmen were lynched and their groups were therefore not thought of as White.

But plenty of the people who were lynched were considered White.

Here's a relevant table: lynchings in the U.S. by state and race. Image
Read 4 tweets
Jun 20
Yesterday was Juneteenth, a federal holiday in the U.S. dedicated to celebrating the day the last slaves in America were freed when the Emancipation Proclamation was enforced in Texas.

Economically, what were the fates of slaves? What about slaveowners?

🧵 Image
Starting with slaves, a paper that came out last year looked into the matter.

The paper used Census and administrative records from 1850 to 2000 to compare Black Americans whose ancestors were enslaved for different amounts of time.

Compare these trajectories: Image
One thing that stands out is that, in terms of literacy, there's a lot of convergence. In terms of occupational quality, not so much.

Depending on how you think, this might be obvious or a surprise.

The reason could have to do with Jim Crow.Image
Read 22 tweets
Jun 20
In 2014, David Graeber wrote an article for the Guardian in which he argued "Working-class people... care more about their friends, families, and communities. In aggregate... they're just fundamentally nicer."

The Economist put up a similar article at the time.

Were they right? Image
To make his case, Graeber wove a nice little narrative together about how the rich don't need to care, so they don't, and thus they're bad at empathy and they do things like hiring out the sons and daughters of the poor to do the job when empathy is needed. Image
The meat of Graeber's case was a set of two social psychological papers.

The first was a set of three studies in which the poor appeared to outclass the rich at tasks like the Mind in the Eyes, or figuring out the emotions of people they're talking to. Image
Read 20 tweets

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