I've seen a lot of accounts touting this Bain and Company consulting report Sky News is publicizing about Russians beating the West 3-to-1 shell production.
I don't buy it because the text shows a lot of typical consulting tricks (See text⬇️) ...
Russian shell crisis 🧵
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I don't buy it because the text shows a lot of typical consulting tricks (See text⬇️) ...
Russian shell crisis 🧵
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https://twitter.com/ElbridgeColby/status/1794729492759388236
...aiming to get non-technically educated reporters and policy makers to reach a conclusion that open source data on the Russian shell supply chain simply doesn't support.
Bain & Company is a global consulting firm like McKenzie group.
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mil.in.ua/en/news/sky-ne…
Bain & Company is a global consulting firm like McKenzie group.
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mil.in.ua/en/news/sky-ne…
"Directed cognition" is their product.
As a retired US DoD Quality auditor who spent about 40-to-50 hours piecing together the open source State Dept, DTRA & declassified CIA data for the Soviet/Russian shell supply chain in August 2022...
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As a retired US DoD Quality auditor who spent about 40-to-50 hours piecing together the open source State Dept, DTRA & declassified CIA data for the Soviet/Russian shell supply chain in August 2022...
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https://x.com/TrentTelenko/status/1559013688958455813
...I will demonstrate how Bain is manipulating reporters & Western gov't policy makers with Bain's own words.
Words which tell selected truths out of context in an order meant to manipulate a "Directed cognition" conclusion.
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Words which tell selected truths out of context in an order meant to manipulate a "Directed cognition" conclusion.
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First See Bain here:
"As a result, Ukrainian artillerymen on the frontline say for every one round they fire against Russian positions, the invading troops can launch around five shells back."
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"As a result, Ukrainian artillerymen on the frontline say for every one round they fire against Russian positions, the invading troops can launch around five shells back."
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Bain is using a partial truth here to tell a lie by avoiding context.
The context of DPRK's massive shipments of shells to Russia starting in late Summer 2023.
It was when Western intel finally admitted Soviet era shell stocks weren't infinite.
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The context of DPRK's massive shipments of shells to Russia starting in late Summer 2023.
It was when Western intel finally admitted Soviet era shell stocks weren't infinite.
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https://x.com/TrentTelenko/status/1559030369864896517
It was the time of the Russo-Ukrainian War when Russia finally blew through it's stocks of Cold War era shells and reached out to North Korea and Iran for ex-Soviet shells.
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https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1719379856427761688
Remember, in May-June 2022 Russia was firing between 45,000 and 65,000 shells a day versus Ukraine's 1k to 2K shells.
It was just before US GMLRS intervention in July 2022 killed RuAF's shell depots and blunted Russia's Sievierodonetsk offensive.
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It was just before US GMLRS intervention in July 2022 killed RuAF's shell depots and blunted Russia's Sievierodonetsk offensive.
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https://x.com/TrentTelenko/status/1559013694243328001
It took another year of hard fighting for Russian Cold War shell reserves to finally require augmenting from North Korea and Iran.
This takes us to our next Bain statement:
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This takes us to our next Bain statement:
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"The Bain & Company’s research on artillery rounds discovered that Russian factories were forecast to manufacture or refurbish approximately 4.5 million artillery shells this year."
That was a good example of Bain lying with statistics.
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That was a good example of Bain lying with statistics.
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The 4.5 million shells is split into two parts.
First, 3 million in new shell production and 1.5 million in refurbishing old shells annually.
Hint:
Those 3 million new shells are not all 152mm. The are every shell from 82mm mortars upwards.
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First, 3 million in new shell production and 1.5 million in refurbishing old shells annually.
Hint:
Those 3 million new shells are not all 152mm. The are every shell from 82mm mortars upwards.
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Russian reflexive control infowar propaganda always compares all new RuAF shells to only 155mm Western shell production.
I love @AndrewPerpetua pithy comments on the many Western analysts (like Bain) that have bought that Russian infowar propaganda.
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I love @AndrewPerpetua pithy comments on the many Western analysts (like Bain) that have bought that Russian infowar propaganda.
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https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1794700728738738250
The other 1.5 million "refurbished shells" represent Russia's response to Ukraine's post 2014-2015 ATO industrial requirement for 500K a year of refurbished shells.
Putin's oil money made it happen.
Ukraine's poor economy never met its industrial shell requirements.
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Putin's oil money made it happen.
Ukraine's poor economy never met its industrial shell requirements.
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All that popped out while I was researching State Department, DTRA and CIA reports on old Soviet Shells.
It's clear Bain's authors read those reports too...
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It's clear Bain's authors read those reports too...
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https://x.com/TrentTelenko/status/1559030392216231936
...because of their weasley wording here:
"It is unclear what proportion of the total number is refurbished and produced. Still, this number is significantly higher than the 1.3 million shells that the United States and European countries are expected to produce."
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"It is unclear what proportion of the total number is refurbished and produced. Still, this number is significantly higher than the 1.3 million shells that the United States and European countries are expected to produce."
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Russia used its 1.5 million shell a year refurbishing capability to the maximum extent possible from February 2022 until October 2023.
When Western Intelligence acknowledged, belatedly, that Russian controlled ex-Soviet Cold War surplus shell stocks ran out.
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When Western Intelligence acknowledged, belatedly, that Russian controlled ex-Soviet Cold War surplus shell stocks ran out.
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I'll grant to Bain that some number of imported DPRK & Iranian shells are going through Russian shell refurbishment.
That Russian industrial refurbishment capability isn't adding new shell capacity/count.
It is making imported shells safe for Mobiks to use.
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That Russian industrial refurbishment capability isn't adding new shell capacity/count.
It is making imported shells safe for Mobiks to use.
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And Western Intelligence thinks Russia has cleaned out DPRK & Iranian shell stockpiles.
ROK intelligence said 6,700 ISO containers left DPRK with some combination between 3 million 152mm shells or 5 million* 122mm shells.
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ROK intelligence said 6,700 ISO containers left DPRK with some combination between 3 million 152mm shells or 5 million* 122mm shells.
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[* The ROK media report typo-ed that as 500,000 122mm shells.]
The math for wood vapor barrier proof Soviet package of two 122mm shells works out to ~33 tons of 122mm ammo an ISO container, times 6,700 containers.
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The math for wood vapor barrier proof Soviet package of two 122mm shells works out to ~33 tons of 122mm ammo an ISO container, times 6,700 containers.
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https://x.com/TrentTelenko/status/1559035533447385089
Now we get to Bain's "Jedi mind trick" sentence-
"In addition to faster production and refurbishment, the cost of producing 152mm artillery shells in Russia hovers around $1,000 per unit."
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"In addition to faster production and refurbishment, the cost of producing 152mm artillery shells in Russia hovers around $1,000 per unit."
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Cost and shell industrial capability are one thing if you have all the necessary chemical feed stocks.
Russia doesn't.
And it doesn't to the tune of 700,000 152mm shells made with Western sanctions busting construction grade explosives in 2023.
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Russia doesn't.
And it doesn't to the tune of 700,000 152mm shells made with Western sanctions busting construction grade explosives in 2023.
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Given the extensive Western media coverage of this illegal construction grade explosive trade, and the corporations doing it, that @Schizointel detailed in a number of treads.
Russia is down 700,000 152mm shells worth of explosives for 2024
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Russia is down 700,000 152mm shells worth of explosives for 2024
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So, 3 million RuAF shells of all types, minus 700,000 152mm shells of explosives...
...verus 1.3 million Western 155mm shells in 2024, plus other Western & AFU funded shells of all calibers...
... looks like a trend to Ukrainian shell advantage, just as the Russians run out of artillery tubes, while Ukraine makes 1 million drones.
22/22 End
...verus 1.3 million Western 155mm shells in 2024, plus other Western & AFU funded shells of all calibers...
... looks like a trend to Ukrainian shell advantage, just as the Russians run out of artillery tubes, while Ukraine makes 1 million drones.
22/22 End
https://x.com/TrentTelenko/status/1559013707400679426
@threadreaderapp unroll please.
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